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Titans at Colts

NFL · Sunday, Oct 18 · 12:00 PM CT · Lucas Oil Stadium · Final TEN 26 – IND 20
← NFL / Oct 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TEN0062026
IND0130720
Team box
TEN·IND
186
total yards
399
102
passing yards
234
84
rushing yards
165
11
first downs
24
3-10
third downs
7-15
1
turnovers
3
21:28
time of possession
38:32
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Cam WardTEN11/2210211
Daniel JonesIND22/4226912
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Tony PollardTEN19760
Jonathan TaylorIND21941
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Carnell TateTEN6701
Keenan AllenIND8820

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +13
TEN +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 13 · TEN 7lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEN 27%, IND 73% · Updated Oct 18

Expected margin
IND by 9.9
Expected score
IND 26.8 – 16.9 TEN
Expected total
43.7
TitansThe matchupColts
+275Our fair odds−275
16.9Expected points26.8
−1.44Power rating−0.10
11.6Points / game24.8
21.8Allowed / game27.6
246Total yards / game294
4.5Yards / play4.6
164Passing yards / game193
0−5Season record2−3
2−8Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEN chance · IND chance
Our model fair26.7%73.3%
Kalshi29.4%74.4%
Polymarket US28.9%74.1%
ProphetX29.6%72.8%
Novig28.0%72.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 11:59 AM CTProphetXpre-game · 11:58 AM CTNovigpre-game · 11:58 AM CT
Moneyline
TENTennessee Titans+27527%+24029.4%+24628.9%+23829.6%+25728.0%
INDIndianapolis Colts−27573%−29074.4%−28774.1%−26772.8%−26472.5%
SpreadIND by 9.9
TENTennessee Titans+9.9our margin+6.5 −11252.7%+6.5 −11453.2%+6.5 −11252.9%+6.5 −10852.0%
INDIndianapolis Colts−9.9our margin−6.5 −10751.8%−6.5 −10350.7%−6.5 +10349.3%−6.5 +10648.5%
Totalwe expect 43.7
Over43.7our totalo43.5 −11252.7%o43.5 −10952.2%o43.5 −10852.0%o43.5 −10451.0%
Under43.7our totalu43.5 −10751.8%u43.5 −10751.7%u43.5 −10451.0%u43.5 +10249.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indianapolis Colts by 9.9 expected
Tennessee Titans by 48 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 47 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 46 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 45 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 44 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 43 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 42 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 41 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 40 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 39 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 38 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 37 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 36 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 35 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 34 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 33 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 32 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 31 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 30 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 29 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 28 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 27 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 26 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 25 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 24 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 23 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 22 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 21 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 20 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 19 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 18 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 17 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 16 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 15 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 14 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 13 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 12 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 11 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 10 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 9 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 8 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 7 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 6 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 5 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 4 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 3 points: 5%Tennessee Titans by 2 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 6%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 39 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 40 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 41 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 42 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 43 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 44 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 45 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 46 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 47 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 48 points: <1%
← TEN wins byIND wins by →
Indianapolis Colts wins by 3 or more70%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 7 or more55%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 10 or more47%
Within 3 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.7 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.569%
Total over 43.548%
Total over 50.530%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TENCam Ward · last 3 games: 64% completions, 191 yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INTstarted
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 59% completions, 215 yds/game, 1 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEN·IND
Oct 11 vs HOU
last game
Oct 11 at PIT
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Weather

forecast for kickoff · NWS
temp57°F · sunny
wind6 mph S
rain0% chance

For context, not in our forecast. Retractable roof, so it may be closed.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 18, 2026, 11:30 AM CT
Tennessee Titans
TENAlontae Taylor · coach's decisionInactive
TENBrandon Crenshaw-Dickson · coach's decisionInactive
TENJackie Marshall · coach's decisionInactive
TENJordan Elliott · personalInactive
TENKevin Winston Jr. · quadricepsInactive
TENKylen Granson · coach's decisionInactive
TENNicholas Singleton · coach's decisionInactive
Indianapolis Colts
INDAshton Dulin · hamstringInactive
INDDalton Tucker · coach's decisionInactive
INDJaylon Carlies · ribsInactive
INDRiley Leonard · coach's decisionInactive
INDTyler Warren · groinInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
TEN·IND
−1.44
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
11.6
points / game
24.8
21.8
points allowed / game
27.6
0−5
season record
2−3
0−3
home record
1−1
0−2
away record
1−2
L5
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
2−8
246
total yards / game
294
4.5
yards / play
4.6
164
passing yards / game
193
83
rushing yards / game
101
15.6
first downs / game
19.2
1.4
turnovers / game
1.6

Rating Trend

TEN · IND · 18 days
Tennessee TitansIndianapolis Colts
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · IND 6−4
Oct 26, 2025at INDIND 38 − 14
Sep 21, 2025at TENIND 41 − 20
Dec 22, 2024at INDIND 38 − 30
Oct 13, 2024at TENIND 20 − 17
Dec 3, 2023at TENIND 31 − 28
Oct 8, 2023at INDIND 23 − 16
Oct 23, 2022at TENTEN 19 − 10
Oct 2, 2022at INDTEN 24 − 17
Oct 31, 2021at INDTEN 34 − 31
Sep 26, 2021at TENTEN 25 − 16

TEN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Oct 11vs HOU3 − 26L
Oct 4at BAL18 − 24L
Sep 27at NYG7 − 12L
Sep 20vs PHI20 − 24L
Sep 13vs NYJ10 − 23L
Jan 4at JAX7 − 41L
Dec 28, 2025vs NO26 − 34L
Dec 21, 2025vs KC26 − 9W
Dec 14, 2025at SF24 − 37L
Dec 7, 2025at CLE31 − 29W

IND · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Oct 11at PIT22 − 34L
Oct 4at WSH30 − 13W
Sep 27vs HOU19 − 17W
Sep 20at KC30 − 33L
Sep 13vs BAL23 − 41L
Jan 4at HOU30 − 38L
Dec 28, 2025vs JAX17 − 23L
Dec 22, 2025vs SF27 − 48L
Dec 14, 2025at SEA16 − 18L
Dec 7, 2025at JAX19 − 36L