bayesRatings

Titans at Ravens

NFL · Sunday, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · M&T Bank Stadium · Final TEN 18 – BAL 24
← NFL / Oct 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TEN703818
BAL7170024
Team box
TEN·BAL
297
total yards
384
212
passing yards
272
85
rushing yards
112
21
first downs
19
2-10
third downs
2-10
2
turnovers
0
26:52
time of possession
33:08
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Cam WardTEN20/3122211
Lamar JacksonBAL15/2022220
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Tony PollardTEN16481
Derrick HenryBAL23731
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Carnell TateTEN91450
Zay FlowersBAL81181

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +17
TEN +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BAL 17 · TEN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEN 21%, BAL 79% · Updated Oct 4

Expected margin
BAL by 14.3
Expected score
BAL 30.0 – 15.7 TEN
Expected total
45.6
TitansThe matchupRavens
+381Our fair odds−381
15.7Expected points30.0
−1.06Power rating+0.19
12.3Points / game30.7
19.7Allowed / game26.0
249Total yards / game399
4.8Yards / play6.7
159Passing yards / game231
0−3Season record2−1
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEN chance · BAL chance
Our model fair20.8%79.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TENTennessee Titans+38121%————
BALBaltimore Ravens−38179%————
SpreadBAL by 14.3
TENTennessee Titans+14.3our margin————
BALBaltimore Ravens−14.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.6
Over45.6our total————
Under45.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Ravens by 14.3 expected
Tennessee Titans by 49 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 48 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 47 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 46 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 45 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 44 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 43 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 42 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 41 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 40 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 39 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 38 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 37 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 36 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 35 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 34 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 33 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 32 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 31 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 30 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 29 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 28 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 27 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 26 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 25 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 24 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 23 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 22 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 21 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 20 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 19 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 18 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 17 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 16 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 15 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 14 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 13 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 12 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 11 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 10 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 9 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 8 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 7 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 6 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 5 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 4 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 3 points: 4%Tennessee Titans by 2 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 6%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 5%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 39 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 40 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 41 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 42 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 43 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 44 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 45 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 46 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 47 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 48 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 49 points: <1%
← TEN wins byBAL wins by →
Baltimore Ravens wins by 3 or more80%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 7 or more67%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 10 or more58%
Within 3 points either way16%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.6 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.530%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TENCam Ward · last 3 games: 62% completions, 168 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted
BALLamar Jackson · last 3 games: 70% completions, 248 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEN·BAL
Sep 27 at NYG
last game
Sep 27 at DAL
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
TEN·BAL
−1.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
12.3
points / game
30.7
19.7
points allowed / game
26.0
0−3
season record
2−1
0−2
home record
0−1
0−1
away record
2−0
L3
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
5−5
249
total yards / game
399
4.8
yards / play
6.7
159
passing yards / game
231
90
rushing yards / game
167
14.0
first downs / game
21.7
1.0
turnovers / game
0.7

Rating Trend

TEN · BAL · 8 days
Tennessee TitansBaltimore Ravens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · BAL 1−0
Oct 15, 2023at TENBAL 24 − 16

TEN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Sep 27at NYG7 − 12L
Sep 20vs PHI20 − 24L
Sep 13vs NYJ10 − 23L
Jan 4at JAX7 − 41L
Dec 28, 2025vs NO26 − 34L
Dec 21, 2025vs KC26 − 9W
Dec 14, 2025at SF24 − 37L
Dec 7, 2025at CLE31 − 29W
Nov 30, 2025vs JAX3 − 25L
Nov 23, 2025vs SEA24 − 30L

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 27at DAL34 − 31W
Sep 20vs NO17 − 24L
Sep 13at IND41 − 23W
Jan 4at PIT24 − 26L
Dec 27, 2025at GB41 − 24W
Dec 21, 2025vs NE24 − 28L
Dec 14, 2025at CIN24 − 0W
Dec 7, 2025vs PIT22 − 27L
Nov 27, 2025vs CIN14 − 32L
Nov 23, 2025vs NYJ23 − 10W