bayesRatings

Bengals at Dolphins

NFL · Sunday, Oct 11 · 12:00 PM CT · Hard Rock Stadium · Final CIN 31 – MIA 24
← NFL / Oct 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CIN7147331
MIA7031424
Team box
CIN·MIA
307
total yards
331
190
passing yards
114
117
rushing yards
217
22
first downs
23
9-13
third downs
7-13
1
turnovers
3
31:40
time of possession
28:20
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Joe BurrowCIN23/3219040
Malik WillisMIA15/2713712
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Samaje PerineCIN14680
Ollie Gordon IIMIA18881
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN6771
Malik WashingtonMIA6430

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +18
CIN +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 0 · CIN 18lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 57%, MIA 43% · Updated Oct 11

Expected margin
CIN by 6.2
Expected score
CIN 26.1 – 19.8 MIA
Expected total
45.9
BengalsThe matchupDolphins
−131Our fair odds+131
26.1Expected points19.8
−0.08Power rating−0.60
24.2Points / game11.5
21.2Allowed / game25.2
352Total yards / game268
5.6Yards / play5.2
278Passing yards / game164
2−2Season record0−4
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · MIA chance
Our model fair56.8%43.2%
Kalshi76.3%27.3%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Bengals−13157%−32276.3%———
MIAMiami Dolphins+13143%+26627.3%———
SpreadCIN by 6.2
CINCincinnati Bengals−6.2our margin————
MIAMiami Dolphins+6.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.9
Over45.9our total————
Under45.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Bengals by 6.2 expected
Cincinnati Bengals by 40 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 39 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 5%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 9%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 2%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 6%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 39 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 40 points: <1%
← CIN wins byMIA wins by →
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 3 or more64%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 7 or more46%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 10 or more37%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.9 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.530%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CINJoe Burrow · last 3 games: 71% completions, 306 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted
MIAMalik Willis · last 3 games: 57% completions, 164 yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·MIA
Oct 4 vs JAX
last game
Oct 4 at MIN
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
CIN·MIA
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.60
24.2
points / game
11.5
21.2
points allowed / game
25.2
2−2
season record
0−4
1−1
home record
0−1
1−1
away record
0−3
L2
streak
L4
5−5
last 10
3−7
352
total yards / game
268
5.6
yards / play
5.2
278
passing yards / game
164
74
rushing yards / game
104
20.8
first downs / game
13.2
1.2
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

CIN · MIA · 11 days
Cincinnati BengalsMiami Dolphins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · MIA 0−2
Dec 21, 2025at MIACIN 45 − 21
Sep 29, 2022at CINCIN 27 − 15

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Oct 4vs JAX17 − 22L
Sep 27at PIT27 − 30L
Sep 20at HOU20 − 6W
Sep 13vs TB33 − 27W
Jan 4vs CLE18 − 20L
Dec 28, 2025vs ARI37 − 14W
Dec 21, 2025at MIA45 − 21W
Dec 14, 2025vs BAL0 − 24L
Dec 7, 2025at BUF34 − 39L
Nov 27, 2025at BAL32 − 14W

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Oct 4at MIN10 − 15L
Sep 27vs KC10 − 24L
Sep 20at SF13 − 35L
Sep 13at LV13 − 27L
Jan 4at NE10 − 38L
Dec 28, 2025vs TB20 − 17W
Dec 21, 2025vs CIN21 − 45L
Dec 15, 2025at PIT15 − 28L
Dec 7, 2025at NYJ34 − 10W
Nov 30, 2025vs NO21 − 17W