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Chiefs at Seahawks

NFL · Sunday, Oct 25 · 7:20 PM CT · Lumen Field · Final KC 3 – SEA 20
← NFL / Oct 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
KC00303
SEA0103720
Team box
KC·SEA
213
total yards
410
163
passing yards
257
50
rushing yards
153
11
first downs
24
3-11
third downs
11-16
1
turnovers
1
24:09
time of possession
35:51
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Patrick MahomesKC19/3316501
Sam DarnoldSEA20/2825711
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kenneth Walker IIIKC14360
Emanuel WilsonSEA241001
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Travis KelceKC4440
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA91501

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +17
KC +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SEA 17 · KC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 42%, SEA 58% · Updated Oct 25

Expected margin
SEA by 4.4
Expected score
SEA 23.4 – 19.0 KC
Expected total
42.4
ChiefsThe matchupSeahawks
+140Our fair odds−140
19.0Expected points23.4
+0.42Power rating+0.73
28.0Points / game24.7
16.6Allowed / game20.3
414Total yards / game332
6.7Yards / play5.3
254Passing yards / game225
5−0Season record3−3
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · SEA chance
Our model fair41.7%58.3%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket US43.2%60.4%
ProphetX42.2%59.8%
Novig42.0%58.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:20 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 7:19 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 7:18 PM CTNovigpre-game · 7:18 PM CT
Moneyline
KCKansas City Chiefs+14042%+12943.7%+13243.2%+13742.2%+13842.0%
SEASeattle Seahawks−14058%−15460.7%−15360.4%−14959.8%−14158.5%
SpreadSEA by 4.4
KCKansas City Chiefs+4.4our margin+2.5 +10548.7%+2.5 +10748.2%+2.5 +11247.2%+2.5 +11546.5%
SEASeattle Seahawks−4.4our margin−2.5 −12655.7%−2.5 −12655.7%−2.5 −12555.5%−2.5 −11754.0%
Totalwe expect 42.4
Over42.4our totalo43.5 −10350.7%o43.5 −10150.2%o43.5 +10149.8%o43.5 +10449.0%
Under42.4our totalu43.5 −11653.7%u43.5 −11653.7%u43.5 −11453.3%u43.5 −10852.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 4.4 expected
Kansas City Chiefs by 44 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 43 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 42 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 41 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 40 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 39 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 7%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 7%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 41 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 42 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 43 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 44 points: <1%
← KC wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more55%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more39%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more31%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

42.4 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 35.568%
Total over 42.548%
Total over 49.529%
Total from 36 to 4940%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 69% completions, 248 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 57% completions, 214 yds/game, 3 TD, 5 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·SEA
Oct 18 vs LAC
last game
Oct 15 at DEN
6 days
days of rest
9 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Weather

forecast for kickoff · NWS
temp53°F · chance light rain
wind2 mph SE
rain52% chance

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 25, 2026, 6:50 PM CT
Kansas City Chiefs
KCBen VanSumeren · coach's decisionInactive
KCGarrett Nussmeier · coach's decisionInactive
KCJack Pyburn · coach's decisionInactive
KCJadon Canady · coach's decisionInactive
KCRashee Rice · hamstringInactive
Seattle Seahawks
SEABeau Stephens · coach's decisionInactive
SEAChazz Surratt · calfInactive
SEAConnor O'Toole · hamstringInactive
SEADrake Thomas · ankleInactive
SEADrew Lock · elbowInactive
SEARobert Henry Jr. · coach's decisionInactive
SEAZach Charbonnet · knee - aclInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
KC·SEA
+0.42
rating (0 = average)
+0.73
28.0
points / game
24.7
16.6
points allowed / game
20.3
5−0
season record
3−3
3−0
home record
2−1
2−0
away record
1−2
W5
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
7−3
414
total yards / game
332
6.7
yards / play
5.3
254
passing yards / game
225
160
rushing yards / game
107
21.2
first downs / game
20.2
0.8
turnovers / game
2.0

Rating Trend

KC · SEA · 25 days
Kansas City ChiefsSeattle Seahawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · SEA 0−1
Dec 24, 2022at KCKC 24 − 10

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W5
Oct 18vs LAC22 − 6W
Oct 4at LV30 − 27W
Sep 27at MIA24 − 10W
Sep 20vs IND33 − 30W
Sep 14vs DEN31 − 10W
Jan 4at LV12 − 14L
Dec 25, 2025vs DEN13 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at TEN9 − 26L
Dec 14, 2025vs LAC13 − 16L
Dec 7, 2025vs HOU10 − 20L

SEA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Oct 15at DEN14 − 17L
Oct 11vs SF29 − 32L
Oct 4vs LAC30 − 23W
Sep 27at WSH31 − 33L
Sep 20at ARI31 − 7W
Sep 9vs NE13 − 10W
Feb 8at NE29 − 13W
Jan 25vs LAR31 − 27W
Jan 17vs SF41 − 6W
Jan 3at SF13 − 3W