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Chiefs at Raiders

NFL · Sunday, Oct 4 · 3:25 PM CT · Allegiant Stadium · Final KC 30 – LV 27
← NFL / Oct 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
KC7302030
LV7601427
Team box
KC·LV
399
total yards
437
210
passing yards
365
189
rushing yards
72
18
first downs
28
5-13
third downs
5-14
0
turnovers
2
24:18
time of possession
35:42
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Patrick MahomesKC15/3022520
Kirk CousinsLV31/5236521
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kenneth Walker IIIKC221772
Ashton JeantyLV15580
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tyquan ThorntonKC51112
Brock BowersLV6861

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LV +11
KC +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LV 7 · KC 11lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 56%, LV 44% · Updated Oct 4

Expected margin
KC by 4.9
Expected score
KC 22.1 – 17.2 LV
Expected total
39.2
ChiefsThe matchupRaiders
−126Our fair odds+126
22.1Expected points17.2
+0.27Power rating−0.22
29.3Points / game29.3
16.7Allowed / game18.0
416Total yards / game312
6.5Yards / play4.9
263Passing yards / game212
3−0Season record3−0
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · LV chance
Our model fair55.8%44.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Chiefs−12656%————
LVLas Vegas Raiders+12644%————
SpreadKC by 4.9
KCKansas City Chiefs−4.9our margin————
LVLas Vegas Raiders+4.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.2
Over39.2our total————
Under39.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Chiefs by 4.9 expected
Kansas City Chiefs by 40 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 39 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 5%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 9%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 6%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%
← KC wins byLV wins by →
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 3 or more60%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 7 or more41%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 10 or more33%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.2 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.569%
Total over 39.547%
Total over 46.528%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 68% completions, 271 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTstarted
LVKirk Cousins · last 3 games: 67% completions, 220 yds/game, 9 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·LV
Sep 27 at MIA
last game
Sep 27 at NO
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
KC·LV
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
29.3
points / game
29.3
16.7
points allowed / game
18.0
3−0
season record
3−0
2−0
home record
1−0
1−0
away record
2−0
W3
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
4−6
416
total yards / game
312
6.5
yards / play
4.9
263
passing yards / game
212
153
rushing yards / game
100
22.0
first downs / game
19.7
0.7
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

KC · LV · 8 days
Kansas City ChiefsLas Vegas Raiders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LV 2−8
Jan 4at LVLV 14 − 12
Oct 19, 2025at KCKC 31 − 0
Nov 29, 2024at KCKC 19 − 17
Oct 27, 2024at LVKC 27 − 20
Dec 25, 2023at KCLV 20 − 14
Nov 26, 2023at LVKC 31 − 17
Jan 7, 2023at LVKC 31 − 13
Oct 10, 2022at KCKC 30 − 29
Dec 12, 2021at KCKC 48 − 9
Nov 14, 2021at LVKC 41 − 14

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Sep 27at MIA24 − 10W
Sep 20vs IND33 − 30W
Sep 14vs DEN31 − 10W
Jan 4at LV12 − 14L
Dec 25, 2025vs DEN13 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at TEN9 − 26L
Dec 14, 2025vs LAC13 − 16L
Dec 7, 2025vs HOU10 − 20L
Nov 27, 2025at DAL28 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs IND23 − 20W

LV · Last 10

4−6 · streak W4
Sep 27at NO35 − 27W
Sep 20at LAC26 − 14W
Sep 13vs MIA27 − 13W
Jan 4vs KC14 − 12W
Dec 28, 2025vs NYG10 − 34L
Dec 21, 2025at HOU21 − 23L
Dec 14, 2025at PHI0 − 31L
Dec 7, 2025vs DEN17 − 24L
Nov 30, 2025at LAC14 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs CLE10 − 24L