bayesRatings

Chargers at Chiefs

NFL · Sunday, Oct 18 · 3:25 PM CT · Arrowhead Stadium · Final LAC 6 – KC 22
← NFL / Oct 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAC30306
KC9100322
Team box
LAC·KC
259
total yards
422
186
passing yards
272
73
rushing yards
150
15
first downs
22
5-16
third downs
3-10
2
turnovers
2
29:34
time of possession
30:26
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Justin HerbertLAC22/3720401
Patrick MahomesKC23/3027201
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Justin HerbertLAC5260
Kenneth Walker IIIKC191282
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Quentin JohnstonLAC1570
Xavier WorthyKC7730

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +16
LAC +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: KC 16 · LAC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 23%, KC 77% · Updated Oct 18

Expected margin
KC by 8.1
Expected score
KC 24.5 – 16.4 LAC
Expected total
40.8
ChargersThe matchupChiefs
+326Our fair odds−326
16.4Expected points24.5
−0.34Power rating+0.36
16.8Points / game29.5
25.8Allowed / game19.2
293Total yards / game412
4.8Yards / play6.6
165Passing yards / game250
0−5Season record4−0
2−8Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · KC chance
Our model fair23.5%76.5%
Kalshi24.2%78.2%
Polymarket US24.5%78.2%
ProphetX25.1%77.7%
Novig23.0%77.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:25 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 3:24 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 3:24 PM CTNovigpre-game · 3:22 PM CT
Moneyline
LACLos Angeles Chargers+32623%+31324.2%+30824.5%+29925.1%+33523.0%
KCKansas City Chiefs−32677%−36078.2%−35978.2%−34977.7%−34477.5%
SpreadKC by 8.1
LACLos Angeles Chargers+8.1our margin+7.5 −12154.7%+7.5 −12154.7%+7.5 −12255.0%+7.5 −11553.5%
KCKansas City Chiefs−8.1our margin−7.5 +10149.7%−7.5 +10349.2%−7.5 +11047.6%−7.5 +11347.0%
Totalwe expect 40.8
Over40.8our totalo41.5 −10751.8%o41.5 −10751.7%o41.5 −10551.2%o41.5 +10249.5%
Under40.8our totalu41.5 −11252.7%u41.5 −10952.2%u41.5 −10751.7%u41.5 −10451.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Chiefs by 8.1 expected
Los Angeles Chargers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 6%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 7%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 39 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 40 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 41 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 42 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 43 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 44 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 45 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 46 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 47 points: <1%
← LAC wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 3 or more65%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 7 or more50%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 10 or more42%
Within 3 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.8 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.570%
Total over 40.549%
Total over 47.529%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 60% completions, 179 yds/game, 3 TD, 4 INTstarted
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 66% completions, 284 yds/game, 7 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·KC
Oct 11 vs DEN
last game
Oct 4 at LV
6 days
days of rest
13 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Weather

forecast for kickoff · NWS
temp68°F · sunny
wind12 mph S
rain0% chance

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM CT
Los Angeles Chargers
LACBud Dupree · neckInactive
LACDerwin James Jr. · hamstringInactive
LACDonte Jackson · hamstringInactive
LACKayode Awosika · lower legInactive
LACRodney Shelley · hamstringInactive
LACTre' Harris · hamstringInactive
Kansas City Chiefs
KCDiego Pounds · coach's decisionInactive
KCGarrett Nussmeier · coach's decisionInactive
KCJack Pyburn · coach's decisionInactive
KCJadon Canady · coach's decisionInactive
KCJared Wiley · coach's decisionInactive
KCJosh Simmons · backInactive
KCRashee Rice · hamstringInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
LAC·KC
−0.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.36
16.8
points / game
29.5
25.8
points allowed / game
19.2
0−5
season record
4−0
0−3
home record
2−0
0−2
away record
2−0
L5
streak
W4
2−8
last 10
4−6
293
total yards / game
412
4.8
yards / play
6.6
165
passing yards / game
250
128
rushing yards / game
162
17.6
first downs / game
21.0
2.6
turnovers / game
0.5

Rating Trend

LAC · KC · 18 days
Los Angeles ChargersKansas City Chiefs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 7−3
Dec 14, 2025at KCLAC 16 − 13
Sep 5, 2025at LACLAC 27 − 21
Dec 8, 2024at KCKC 19 − 17
Sep 29, 2024at LACKC 17 − 10
Jan 7, 2024at LACKC 13 − 12
Oct 22, 2023at KCKC 31 − 17
Nov 20, 2022at LACKC 30 − 27
Sep 15, 2022at KCKC 27 − 24
Dec 16, 2021at LACKC 34 − 28
Sep 26, 2021at KCLAC 30 − 24

LAC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L8
Oct 11vs DEN17 − 23L
Oct 4at SEA23 − 30L
Sep 27at BUF16 − 24L
Sep 20vs LV14 − 26L
Sep 13vs ARI14 − 26L
Jan 11at NE3 − 16L
Jan 4at DEN3 − 19L
Dec 27, 2025vs HOU16 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at DAL34 − 17W
Dec 14, 2025at KC16 − 13W

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W4
Oct 4at LV30 − 27W
Sep 27at MIA24 − 10W
Sep 20vs IND33 − 30W
Sep 14vs DEN31 − 10W
Jan 4at LV12 − 14L
Dec 25, 2025vs DEN13 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at TEN9 − 26L
Dec 14, 2025vs LAC13 − 16L
Dec 7, 2025vs HOU10 − 20L
Nov 27, 2025at DAL28 − 31L