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Giants at Texans

NFL · Sunday, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT · Reliant Stadium · Final NYG 27 – HOU 21
← NFL / Oct 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
NYG7707627
HOU31107021
Team box
NYG·HOU
420
total yards
237
232
passing yards
153
188
rushing yards
84
22
first downs
15
5-13
third downs
3-12
0
turnovers
0
35:50
time of possession
26:45
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
J.J. McCarthyNYG20/2825200
C.J. StroudHOU17/2815320
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Cam SkatteboNYG171241
Woody MarksHOU19660
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Malik NabersNYG71110
Dalton SchultzHOU5450

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +8
NYG +8
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: HOU 3 · NYG 8lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYG 22%, HOU 78% · Updated Oct 25

Expected margin
HOU by 9.6
Expected score
HOU 26.7 – 17.1 NYG
Expected total
43.7
GiantsThe matchupTexans
+359Our fair odds−359
17.1Expected points26.7
−0.32Power rating+0.18
22.7Points / game24.0
23.3Allowed / game23.8
334Total yards / game355
4.9Yards / play5.7
229Passing yards / game270
3−2−1Season record2−4
5−4−1Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYG chance · HOU chance
Our model fair21.8%78.2%
Kalshi21.1%82.1%
Polymarket US20.6%81.8%
ProphetX22.2%81.2%
Novig20.0%80.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 11:59 AM CTProphetXpre-game · 11:59 AM CTNovigpre-game · 11:58 AM CT
Moneyline
NYGNew York Giants+35922%+37321.1%+38620.6%+35022.2%+40020.0%
HOUHouston Texans−35978%−45882.1%−45081.8%−43181.2%−41380.5%
SpreadHOU by 9.6
NYGNew York Giants+9.6our margin+10.5 −12154.7%+10.5 −11854.2%+10.5 −12054.6%+10.5 −11152.5%
HOUHouston Texans−9.6our margin−10.5 +10149.7%−10.5 +10149.7%−10.5 +10548.7%−10.5 +10848.0%
Totalwe expect 43.7
Over43.7our totalo43.5 −10350.7%o43.5 +10149.7%o43.5 +10349.3%o43.5 +10648.5%
Under43.7our totalu43.5 −12154.7%u43.5 −11854.2%u43.5 −11754.0%u43.5 −11353.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Texans by 9.6 expected
New York Giants by 48 points: <1%New York Giants by 47 points: <1%New York Giants by 46 points: <1%New York Giants by 45 points: <1%New York Giants by 44 points: <1%New York Giants by 43 points: <1%New York Giants by 42 points: <1%New York Giants by 41 points: <1%New York Giants by 40 points: <1%New York Giants by 39 points: <1%New York Giants by 38 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: <1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 35 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: <1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 32 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: <1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 28 points: <1%New York Giants by 27 points: <1%New York Giants by 26 points: <1%New York Giants by 25 points: <1%New York Giants by 24 points: <1%New York Giants by 23 points: <1%New York Giants by 22 points: <1%New York Giants by 21 points: <1%New York Giants by 20 points: <1%New York Giants by 19 points: <1%New York Giants by 18 points: <1%New York Giants by 17 points: 1%New York Giants by 16 points: <1%New York Giants by 15 points: <1%New York Giants by 14 points: 1%New York Giants by 13 points: <1%New York Giants by 12 points: <1%New York Giants by 11 points: <1%New York Giants by 10 points: 1%New York Giants by 9 points: <1%New York Giants by 8 points: 1%New York Giants by 7 points: 2%New York Giants by 6 points: 2%New York Giants by 5 points: 2%New York Giants by 4 points: 2%New York Giants by 3 points: 6%New York Giants by 2 points: 1%New York Giants by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Houston Texans by 1 point: 2%Houston Texans by 2 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 6%Houston Texans by 4 points: 2%Houston Texans by 5 points: 2%Houston Texans by 6 points: 4%Houston Texans by 7 points: 4%Houston Texans by 8 points: 3%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 2%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 2%Houston Texans by 13 points: 2%Houston Texans by 14 points: 2%Houston Texans by 15 points: 1%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 4%Houston Texans by 18 points: 2%Houston Texans by 19 points: 1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 2%Houston Texans by 21 points: 2%Houston Texans by 22 points: 1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 2%Houston Texans by 24 points: 3%Houston Texans by 25 points: 1%Houston Texans by 26 points: 1%Houston Texans by 27 points: 1%Houston Texans by 28 points: 1%Houston Texans by 29 points: 1%Houston Texans by 30 points: 1%Houston Texans by 31 points: 2%Houston Texans by 32 points: 1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: 1%Houston Texans by 35 points: 1%Houston Texans by 36 points: 1%Houston Texans by 37 points: 1%Houston Texans by 38 points: 1%Houston Texans by 39 points: <1%Houston Texans by 40 points: <1%Houston Texans by 41 points: <1%Houston Texans by 42 points: <1%Houston Texans by 43 points: <1%Houston Texans by 44 points: <1%Houston Texans by 45 points: <1%Houston Texans by 46 points: <1%Houston Texans by 47 points: <1%Houston Texans by 48 points: <1%
← NYG wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Texans wins by 3 or more69%
Houston Texans wins by 7 or more54%
Houston Texans wins by 10 or more46%
Within 3 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.7 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.569%
Total over 43.548%
Total over 50.530%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NYGJ.J. McCarthy · last 3 games: 59% completions, 178 yds/game, 1 TD, 2 INTstarted
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 72% completions, 307 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYG·HOU
Oct 18 vs NO
last game
Oct 18 at JAX
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Weather

forecast for kickoff · NWS
temp78°F · partly sunny
wind10 mph E
rain0% chance

For context, not in our forecast. Retractable roof, so it may be closed.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 25, 2026, 11:30 AM CT
New York Giants
NYGGreg Newsome II · concussionInactive
NYGJake Haener · coach's decisionInactive
NYGJosh Sills · coach's decisionInactive
NYGMarcus Mbow · kneeInactive
NYGNikko Reed · coach's decisionInactive
Houston Texans
HOUBlake Fisher · thumbInactive
HOUDavid Montgomery · groinInactive
HOUFebechi Nwaiwu · coach's decisionInactive
HOUJalen Pitre · shoulder - ac jointInactive
HOUMarlin Klein · coach's decisionInactive
HOUNate Thomas · coach's decisionInactive
HOUReed Blankenship · concussionInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
NYG·HOU
−0.32
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
22.7
points / game
24.0
23.3
points allowed / game
23.8
3−2−1
season record
2−4
3−1
home record
0−3
0−1−1
away record
2−1
L1
streak
W2
5−4−1
last 10
5−5
334
total yards / game
355
4.9
yards / play
5.7
229
passing yards / game
270
105
rushing yards / game
85
20.8
first downs / game
20.7
1.8
turnovers / game
0.5

Rating Trend

NYG · HOU · 25 days
New York GiantsHouston Texans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · HOU 0−1
Nov 13, 2022at NYGNYG 24 − 16

NYG · Last 10

5−4−1 · streak L1
Oct 18vs NO27 − 34L
Oct 11at WSH27 − 27T
Oct 4vs ARI36 − 24W
Sep 27vs TEN12 − 7W
Sep 21at LAR6 − 28L
Sep 13vs DAL28 − 20W
Jan 4vs DAL34 − 17W
Dec 28, 2025at LV34 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025vs MIN13 − 16L
Dec 14, 2025vs WSH21 − 29L

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 18at JAX34 − 31W
Oct 11at TEN26 − 3W
Oct 4vs DAL30 − 34L
Sep 27at IND17 − 19L
Sep 20vs CIN6 − 20L
Sep 13vs BUF31 − 36L
Jan 18at NE16 − 28L
Jan 12at PIT30 − 6W
Jan 4vs IND38 − 30W
Dec 27, 2025at LAC20 − 16W