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Saints at Giants

NFL · Sunday, Oct 18 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final NO 34 – NYG 27
← NFL / Oct 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO01017734
NYG7301727
Team box
NO·NYG
319
total yards
461
144
passing yards
377
175
rushing yards
84
18
first downs
23
4-15
third downs
4-14
1
turnovers
4
31:02
time of possession
28:58
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Tyler ShoughNO16/3014430
Jameis WinstonNYG14/2615212
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kendre MillerNO20700
J.J. McCarthyNYG2260
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Chris OlaveNO4431
Malik NabersNYG121650

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYG +24
NO +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYG 10 · NO 24lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 46%, NYG 54% · Updated Oct 18

Expected margin
NYG by 3.4
Expected score
NYG 24.6 – 21.2 NO
Expected total
45.7
SaintsThe matchupGiants
+119Our fair odds−119
21.2Expected points24.6
−0.58Power rating−0.23
23.6Points / game21.8
30.2Allowed / game21.2
322Total yards / game308
4.7Yards / play4.7
240Passing yards / game199
1−4Season record3−1−1
5−5Last 105−4−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · NYG chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket US52.2%51.5%
ProphetX51.7%50.8%
Novig50.5%50.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 11:59 AM CTProphetXpre-game · 11:58 AM CTNovigpre-game · 11:48 AM CT
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Saints+11946%−11252.7%−10952.2%−10751.7%−10250.5%
NYGNew York Giants−11954%−10751.8%−10651.5%−10350.8%+10050.0%
SpreadNYG by 3.4
NONew Orleans Saints+3.4our margin+1.5 −12154.7%+1.5 −11854.2%+1.5 −11653.8%+1.5 −11353.0%
NYGNew York Giants−3.4our margin−1.5 +10149.7%−1.5 +10149.7%−1.5 +10548.7%−1.5 +10848.0%
Totalwe expect 45.7
Over45.7our totalo46.5 −10350.7%o46.5 −10150.2%o46.5 +10249.6%o46.5 +10449.0%
Under45.7our totalu46.5 −11653.7%u46.5 −11653.7%u46.5 −11353.1%u46.5 −10852.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Giants by 3.4 expected
New Orleans Saints by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 8%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New York Giants by 1 point: 2%New York Giants by 2 points: 3%New York Giants by 3 points: 7%New York Giants by 4 points: 2%New York Giants by 5 points: 2%New York Giants by 6 points: 4%New York Giants by 7 points: 4%New York Giants by 8 points: 3%New York Giants by 9 points: 1%New York Giants by 10 points: 2%New York Giants by 11 points: 1%New York Giants by 12 points: 2%New York Giants by 13 points: 2%New York Giants by 14 points: 2%New York Giants by 15 points: 1%New York Giants by 16 points: 1%New York Giants by 17 points: 3%New York Giants by 18 points: 1%New York Giants by 19 points: 1%New York Giants by 20 points: 1%New York Giants by 21 points: 1%New York Giants by 22 points: 1%New York Giants by 23 points: 1%New York Giants by 24 points: 2%New York Giants by 25 points: 1%New York Giants by 26 points: 1%New York Giants by 27 points: 1%New York Giants by 28 points: 1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: 1%New York Giants by 32 points: <1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: 1%New York Giants by 35 points: <1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: <1%New York Giants by 38 points: <1%New York Giants by 39 points: <1%New York Giants by 40 points: <1%New York Giants by 41 points: <1%New York Giants by 42 points: <1%New York Giants by 43 points: <1%
← NO wins byNYG wins by →
New York Giants wins by 3 or more53%
New York Giants wins by 7 or more37%
New York Giants wins by 10 or more28%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.7 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.530%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NOTyler Shough · last 3 games: 65% completions, 212 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted
NYGJameis Winston · last 3 games: 62% completions, 231 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·NYG
Oct 11 vs MIN
last game
Oct 11 at WSH
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Weather

forecast for kickoff · NWS
temp55°F · sunny
wind6 mph N
rain0% chance

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 18, 2026, 11:30 AM CT
New Orleans Saints
NOAnfernee Jennings · kneeInactive
NOJohn Ridgeway III · coach's decisionInactive
NOKaden Elliss · calfInactive
NOMike Reid · coach's decisionInactive
NONathan Shepherd · illnessInactive
NOZach Wilson · coach's decisionInactive
New York Giants
NYGCJ Okoye · coach's decisionInactive
NYGColton Hood · concussionInactive
NYGJake Haener · coach's decisionInactive
NYGJermaine Eluemunor · calfInactive
NYGTheo Johnson · neckInactive
NYGTyler Nubin · neckInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
NO·NYG
−0.58
rating (0 = average)
−0.23
23.6
points / game
21.8
30.2
points allowed / game
21.2
1−4
season record
3−1−1
0−3
home record
3−0
1−1
away record
0−1−1
L3
streak
T1
5−5
last 10
5−4−1
322
total yards / game
308
4.7
yards / play
4.7
240
passing yards / game
199
82
rushing yards / game
109
21.2
first downs / game
20.4
2.2
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

NO · NYG · 18 days
New Orleans SaintsNew York Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 4 meetings · NYG 1−3
Oct 5, 2025at NONO 26 − 14
Dec 8, 2024at NYGNO 14 − 11
Dec 17, 2023at NONO 24 − 6
Oct 3, 2021at NONYG 27 − 21

NO · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Oct 11vs MIN13 − 23L
Oct 5vs ATL24 − 45L
Sep 27vs LV27 − 35L
Sep 20at BAL24 − 17W
Sep 13at DET30 − 31L
Jan 4at ATL17 − 19L
Dec 28, 2025at TEN34 − 26W
Dec 21, 2025vs NYJ29 − 6W
Dec 14, 2025vs CAR20 − 17W
Dec 7, 2025at TB24 − 20W

NYG · Last 10

5−4−1 · streak T1
Oct 11at WSH27 − 27T
Oct 4vs ARI36 − 24W
Sep 27vs TEN12 − 7W
Sep 21at LAR6 − 28L
Sep 13vs DAL28 − 20W
Jan 4vs DAL34 − 17W
Dec 28, 2025at LV34 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025vs MIN13 − 16L
Dec 14, 2025vs WSH21 − 29L
Dec 1, 2025at NE15 − 33L