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Texans at Jaguars

NFL · Sunday, Oct 18 · 8:30 AM CT · Wembley Stadium · neutral site · Final HOU 34 – JAX 31
← NFL / Oct 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU71014334
JAX01471031
Team box
HOU·JAX
426
total yards
412
312
passing yards
306
114
rushing yards
106
23
first downs
24
5-11
third downs
7-12
1
turnovers
1
29:37
time of possession
30:23
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
C.J. StroudHOU24/3431231
Trevor LawrenceJAX24/4130641
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Woody MarksHOU15560
Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX11550
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jaylin NoelHOU41071
Jakobi MeyersJAX5830

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
JAX +10
HOU +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: JAX 4 · HOU 10lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 36%, JAX 64% · Updated Oct 18

Expected margin
JAX by 5.1
Expected score
JAX 22.6 – 17.4 HOU
Expected total
40.0
TexansThe matchupJaguars
+178Our fair odds−178
17.4Expected points22.6
+0.09Power rating+0.76
22.0Points / game24.6
22.4Allowed / game14.0
341Total yards / game335
5.4Yards / play5.7
262Passing yards / game221
1−4Season record4−1
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · JAX chance
Our model fair36.0%64.0%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket US45.7%58.0%
ProphetX45.6%56.6%
Novig45.0%55.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:30 AM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 8:29 AM CTProphetXpre-game · 8:27 AM CTNovigpre-game · 8:28 AM CT
Moneyline
HOUHouston Texans+17836%+11446.7%+11945.7%+12045.6%+12245.0%
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−17864%−13757.7%−13858.0%−13156.6%−12555.5%
SpreadJAX by 5.1
HOUHouston Texans+5.1our margin+2.5 −11252.7%+2.5 −10952.2%+2.5 −11052.4%+2.5 −10451.0%
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−5.1our margin−2.5 −10751.8%−2.5 −10751.7%−2.5 −10150.3%−2.5 +10249.5%
Totalwe expect 40.0
Over40.0our totalo41.5 −11653.7%o41.5 −11453.2%o41.5 −10952.2%o41.5 −10852.0%
Under40.0our totalu41.5 −10350.7%u41.5 −10350.7%u41.5 −10250.5%u41.5 +10449.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Jacksonville Jaguars by 5.1 expected
Houston Texans by 44 points: <1%Houston Texans by 43 points: <1%Houston Texans by 42 points: <1%Houston Texans by 41 points: <1%Houston Texans by 40 points: <1%Houston Texans by 39 points: <1%Houston Texans by 38 points: <1%Houston Texans by 37 points: <1%Houston Texans by 36 points: <1%Houston Texans by 35 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: <1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 32 points: <1%Houston Texans by 31 points: <1%Houston Texans by 30 points: <1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 28 points: <1%Houston Texans by 27 points: <1%Houston Texans by 26 points: <1%Houston Texans by 25 points: <1%Houston Texans by 24 points: 1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 1%Houston Texans by 22 points: <1%Houston Texans by 21 points: 1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 1%Houston Texans by 19 points: <1%Houston Texans by 18 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 1%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 15 points: <1%Houston Texans by 14 points: 2%Houston Texans by 13 points: <1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 1%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 2%Houston Texans by 9 points: <1%Houston Texans by 8 points: 1%Houston Texans by 7 points: 4%Houston Texans by 6 points: 3%Houston Texans by 5 points: 2%Houston Texans by 4 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 7%Houston Texans by 2 points: 2%Houston Texans by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 7%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 39 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 40 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 41 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 42 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 43 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 44 points: <1%
← HOU wins byJAX wins by →
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 3 or more57%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 7 or more42%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 10 or more33%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.0 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.568%
Total over 40.547%
Total over 47.527%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 68% completions, 258 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 67% completions, 247 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·JAX
Oct 11 at TEN
last game
Oct 11 vs PHI
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Weather

forecast for kickoff · Open-Meteo
temp56°F · wmo 2
wind12 mph N · gusts 25 mph
rain4% chance

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 18, 2026, 8:00 AM CT
Houston Texans
HOUBraden Smith · coach's decisionInactive
HOUDavid Montgomery · groinInactive
HOUFebechi Nwaiwu · coach's decisionInactive
HOUJalen Pitre · shoulder - ac jointInactive
HOUMarlin Klein · coach's decisionInactive
HOUNate Thomas · coach's decisionInactive
HOUSabastian Harsh · coach's decisionInactive
Jacksonville Jaguars
JAXAlbert Regis · coach's decisionInactive
JAXCJ Williams · coach's decisionInactive
JAXJalen Huskey · coach's decisionInactive
JAXMontaric Brown · hamstringInactive
JAXRoss Matiscik · shoulderInactive
JAXWesley Williams · coach's decisionInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
HOU·JAX
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.76
22.0
points / game
24.6
22.4
points allowed / game
14.0
1−4
season record
4−1
0−3
home record
3−0
1−1
away record
1−1
W1
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
8−2
341
total yards / game
335
5.4
yards / play
5.7
262
passing yards / game
221
79
rushing yards / game
114
20.2
first downs / game
20.8
0.4
turnovers / game
0.6

Rating Trend

HOU · JAX · 18 days
Houston TexansJacksonville Jaguars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · JAX 3−7
Nov 9, 2025at HOUHOU 36 − 29
Sep 21, 2025at JAXJAX 17 − 10
Dec 1, 2024at JAXHOU 23 − 20
Sep 29, 2024at HOUHOU 24 − 20
Nov 26, 2023at HOUJAX 24 − 21
Sep 24, 2023at JAXHOU 37 − 17
Jan 1, 2023at HOUJAX 31 − 3
Oct 9, 2022at JAXHOU 13 − 6
Dec 19, 2021at JAXHOU 30 − 16
Sep 12, 2021at HOUHOU 37 − 21

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 11at TEN26 − 3W
Oct 4vs DAL30 − 34L
Sep 27at IND17 − 19L
Sep 20vs CIN6 − 20L
Sep 13vs BUF31 − 36L
Jan 18at NE16 − 28L
Jan 12at PIT30 − 6W
Jan 4vs IND38 − 30W
Dec 27, 2025at LAC20 − 16W
Dec 21, 2025vs LV23 − 21W

JAX · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Oct 11vs PHI19 − 17W
Oct 4at CIN22 − 17W
Sep 27vs NE35 − 6W
Sep 20at DEN13 − 20L
Sep 13vs CLE34 − 10W
Jan 11vs BUF24 − 27L
Jan 4vs TEN41 − 7W
Dec 28, 2025at IND23 − 17W
Dec 21, 2025at DEN34 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025vs NYJ48 − 20W