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Browns at Steelers

NFL · Sunday, Nov 1 · 12:00 PM CT · Acrisure Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 1

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
PIT by 4.4
Expected score
PIT 21.4 – 17.0 CLE
Expected total
38.4
BrownsThe matchupSteelers
+175Our fair odds−175
17.0Expected points21.4
−0.20Power rating+0.21
19.0Points / game21.9
20.9Allowed / game19.7
299Total yards / game324
5.0Yards / play5.1
193Passing yards / game218
5−2Season record5−2
7−3Last 106−4
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB · Joe Royer TE
Alex Wright DE · Damarri Mathis CB
Edefuan Ulofoshio LBOut (5 each)Brandin Echols CB · Doneiko Slaughter CB
Donte Kent CB · Max Hurleman RB
Cole Burgess WR

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · PIT chance
Our model fair36.4%63.6%
Kalshi37.6%66.6%
Polymarket US37.3%66.1%
ProphetX37.3%65.2%
Novig36.0%65.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:21 AM CTPolymarket US4:21 AM CTProphetX4:17 AM CTNovig4:03 AM CT
Moneyline
CLECleveland Browns+17536%+16637.6%+16837.3%+16837.3%+17836.0%
PITPittsburgh Steelers−17564%−19966.6%−19566.1%−18865.2%−18665.0%
SpreadPIT by 4.4
CLECleveland Browns+4.4our margin+3.5 −11653.7%+3.5 −11252.7%+3.5 −11052.4%+3.5 −10651.5%
PITPittsburgh Steelers−4.4our margin−3.5 −10350.7%−3.5 −10551.2%−3.5 −10150.3%−3.5 +10249.5%
Totalwe expect 38.4
Over38.4our totalo39.5 −10350.7%o39.5 −10150.2%o39.5 +10349.3%o39.5 +10648.5%
Under38.4our totalu39.5 −11653.7%u39.5 −11854.2%u39.5 −11453.3%u39.5 −11152.5%

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Steelers by 4.4 expected
Cleveland Browns by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 4%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 7%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 7%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 39 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 40 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 41 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 42 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 43 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 44 points: <1%
← CLE wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 3 or more56%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 7 or more40%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 10 or more31%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

38.4 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 31.569%
Total over 38.548%
Total over 45.528%
Total from 32 to 4541%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
CLEDeshaun Watson · last 3 games: 59% completions, 209 yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INTdepth chart
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 67% completions, 233 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·PIT
Oct 25 at TEN
last game
Oct 25 at NO
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Cleveland Browns
CLEJeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB · neck, back about Feb 15, 2027Out
CLEJoe Royer TE · personalOut
CLEDaniel Thomas S · ankle, back about Nov 1Questionable
CLEMyles Harden CB · hamstring, back about Nov 1Questionable
CLETytus Howard OT · concussion, back about Nov 1Questionable
CLEAlex Wright DE · right achilles surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
CLEDamarri Mathis CB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
CLEEdefuan Ulofoshio LB · biceps, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
CLEElijah Chatman DT · quadriceps, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
CLEKalia Davis DT · quadriceps, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 2 more
Pittsburgh Steelers
PITBrandin Echols CB · hamstring, back about Nov 8Out
PITDoneiko Slaughter CB · hamstring, back about Nov 8Out
PITDonte Kent CB · undisclosedOut
PITMax Hurleman RBOut
PITBen Skowronek WR · calf, back about Nov 1Questionable
PITCole Burgess WR · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
PITDaequan Hardy CB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
PITDerrick Harmon DT · foot, back about Nov 15IR
PITGennings Dunker G · kneeIR
PITJack Driscoll OT · undisclosedIR
and 4 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
CLE·PIT
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.21
19.0
points / game
21.9
20.9
points allowed / game
19.7
5−2
season record
5−2
3−0
home record
3−0
2−2
away record
2−2
W2
streak
W3
7−3
last 10
6−4
299
total yards / game
324
5.0
yards / play
5.1
193
passing yards / game
218
107
rushing yards / game
106
17.3
first downs / game
19.3
1.3
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

CLE · PIT · 30 days
Cleveland BrownsPittsburgh Steelers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 5−5
Oct 1at CLECLE 27 − 24
Dec 28, 2025at CLECLE 13 − 6
Oct 12, 2025at PITPIT 23 − 9
Dec 8, 2024at PITPIT 27 − 14
Nov 21, 2024at CLECLE 24 − 19
Nov 19, 2023at CLECLE 13 − 10
Sep 18, 2023at PITPIT 26 − 22
Jan 8, 2023at PITPIT 28 − 14
Sep 22, 2022at CLECLE 29 − 17
Jan 3, 2022at PITPIT 26 − 14

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Oct 25at TEN27 − 24W
Oct 18vs BAL13 − 10W
Oct 11at NYJ12 − 17L
Oct 1vs PIT27 − 24W
Sep 27vs CAR21 − 18W
Sep 20at TB23 − 19W
Sep 13at JAX10 − 34L
Jan 4at CIN20 − 18W
Dec 28, 2025vs PIT13 − 6W
Dec 21, 2025vs BUF20 − 23L

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Oct 25at NO16 − 10W
Oct 18at TB26 − 19W
Oct 11vs IND34 − 22W
Oct 1at CLE24 − 27L
Sep 27vs CIN30 − 27W
Sep 20at NE3 − 20L
Sep 13vs ATL20 − 13W
Jan 12vs HOU6 − 30L
Jan 4vs BAL26 − 24W
Dec 28, 2025at CLE6 − 13L