bayesRatings

Browns at Jets

NFL · Sunday, Oct 11 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final CLE 12 – NYJ 17
← NFL / Oct 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE330612
NYJ7001017
Team box
CLE·NYJ
198
total yards
276
102
passing yards
142
96
rushing yards
134
13
first downs
14
4-16
third downs
8-17
2
turnovers
2
28:35
time of possession
31:25
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Deshaun WatsonCLE15/3315510
Geno SmithNYJ17/3018210
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Quinshon JudkinsCLE14440
Braelon AllenNYJ241161
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Isaiah BondCLE3740
Garrett WilsonNYJ71041

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYJ +7
CLE +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYJ 7 · CLE 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 57%, NYJ 43% · Updated Oct 11

Expected margin
CLE by 2.8
Expected score
CLE 20.7 – 17.9 NYJ
Expected total
38.6
BrownsThe matchupJets
−131Our fair odds+131
20.7Expected points17.9
−0.26Power rating−0.78
20.2Points / game19.0
23.8Allowed / game21.0
292Total yards / game286
5.2Yards / play5.1
199Passing yards / game202
3−1Season record1−3
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · NYJ chance
Our model fair56.7%43.3%
Kalshi45.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Browns−13157%+11945.7%———
NYJNew York Jets+13143%−14859.7%———
SpreadCLE by 2.8
CLECleveland Browns−2.8our margin————
NYJNew York Jets+2.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 38.6
Over38.6our total————
Under38.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Browns by 2.8 expected
Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 4%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 5%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 4%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 9%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New York Jets by 1 point: 2%New York Jets by 2 points: 3%New York Jets by 3 points: 7%New York Jets by 4 points: 2%New York Jets by 5 points: 2%New York Jets by 6 points: 4%New York Jets by 7 points: 3%New York Jets by 8 points: 2%New York Jets by 9 points: 1%New York Jets by 10 points: 1%New York Jets by 11 points: 1%New York Jets by 12 points: 1%New York Jets by 13 points: 1%New York Jets by 14 points: 1%New York Jets by 15 points: 1%New York Jets by 16 points: 1%New York Jets by 17 points: 2%New York Jets by 18 points: 1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 20 points: 1%New York Jets by 21 points: 1%New York Jets by 22 points: <1%New York Jets by 23 points: <1%New York Jets by 24 points: 1%New York Jets by 25 points: <1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: <1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%
← CLE wins byNYJ wins by →
Cleveland Browns wins by 3 or more54%
Cleveland Browns wins by 7 or more35%
Cleveland Browns wins by 10 or more27%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

38.6 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 31.570%
Total over 38.549%
Total over 45.529%
Total from 32 to 4541%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CLEDeshaun Watson · last 3 games: 69% completions, 217 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted
NYJGeno Smith · last 3 games: 71% completions, 229 yds/game, 5 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·NYJ
Oct 1 vs PIT
last game
Oct 4 at CHI
9 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
CLE·NYJ
−0.26
rating (0 = average)
−0.78
20.2
points / game
19.0
23.8
points allowed / game
21.0
3−1
season record
1−3
2−0
home record
0−1
1−1
away record
1−2
W3
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
2−8
292
total yards / game
286
5.2
yards / play
5.1
199
passing yards / game
202
94
rushing yards / game
84
17.0
first downs / game
17.2
1.2
turnovers / game
0.2

Rating Trend

CLE · NYJ · 11 days
Cleveland BrownsNew York Jets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · NYJ 2−1
Nov 9, 2025at NYJNYJ 27 − 20
Dec 28, 2023at CLECLE 37 − 20
Sep 18, 2022at CLENYJ 31 − 30

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Oct 1vs PIT27 − 24W
Sep 27vs CAR21 − 18W
Sep 20at TB23 − 19W
Sep 13at JAX10 − 34L
Jan 4at CIN20 − 18W
Dec 28, 2025vs PIT13 − 6W
Dec 21, 2025vs BUF20 − 23L
Dec 14, 2025at CHI3 − 31L
Dec 7, 2025vs TEN29 − 31L
Nov 30, 2025vs SF8 − 26L

NYJ · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Oct 4at CHI12 − 23L
Sep 27at DET24 − 31L
Sep 20vs GB17 − 20L
Sep 13at TEN23 − 10W
Jan 4at BUF8 − 35L
Dec 28, 2025vs NE10 − 42L
Dec 21, 2025at NO6 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at JAX20 − 48L
Dec 7, 2025vs MIA10 − 34L
Nov 30, 2025vs ATL27 − 24W