bayesRatings

Steelers at Saints

NFL · Sunday, Oct 25 · 8:30 AM CT · Stade de France · neutral site · Final PIT 16 – NO 10
← NFL / Oct 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PIT3103016
NO0100010
Team box
PIT·NO
343
total yards
281
195
passing yards
263
148
rushing yards
18
20
first downs
19
10-16
third downs
6-12
0
turnovers
1
32:03
time of possession
27:57
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Aaron RodgersPIT19/3021210
Tyler ShoughNO30/3827811
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jaylen WarrenPIT181010
Tyler ShoughNO370
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
DK MetcalfPIT2560
Alvin KamaraNO7570

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +7
PIT +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 0 · PIT 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 60%, NO 40% · Updated Oct 25

Expected margin
PIT by 3.3
Expected score
PIT 23.7 – 20.4 NO
Expected total
44.2
SteelersThe matchupSaints
−153Our fair odds+153
23.7Expected points20.4
+0.15Power rating−0.43
22.8Points / game25.3
21.3Allowed / game29.7
320Total yards / game322
5.1Yards / play4.7
221Passing yards / game224
4−2Season record2−4
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · NO chance
Our model fair60.4%39.6%
Kalshi61.7%42.7%
Polymarket US61.4%42.2%
ProphetX60.5%41.8%
Novig60.0%40.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:30 AM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 8:29 AM CTProphetXpre-game · 8:29 AM CTNovigpre-game · 8:28 AM CT
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Steelers−15360%−16161.7%−15961.4%−15360.5%−15060.0%
NONew Orleans Saints+15340%+13442.7%+13742.2%+13941.8%+14740.5%
SpreadPIT by 3.3
PITPittsburgh Steelers−3.3our margin−2.5 −13156.7%−2.5 −12856.2%−2.5 −12555.5%−2.5 −12255.0%
NONew Orleans Saints+3.3our margin+2.5 +10947.7%+2.5 +11047.7%+2.5 +11446.7%+2.5 +12045.5%
Totalwe expect 44.2
Over44.2our totalo43.5 −10350.7%o43.5 −10150.2%o43.5 −10150.3%o43.5 +10449.0%
Under44.2our totalu43.5 −11653.7%u43.5 −11653.7%u43.5 −11353.1%u43.5 −10651.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Steelers by 3.3 expected
Pittsburgh Steelers by 39 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 5%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 9%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 7%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%
← PIT wins byNO wins by →
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 3 or more56%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 7 or more37%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 10 or more29%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.2 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.567%
Total over 44.546%
Total over 51.528%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 64% completions, 262 yds/game, 8 TD, 3 INTstarted
NOTyler Shough · last 3 games: 60% completions, 175 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·NO
Oct 18 at TB
last game
Oct 18 at NYG
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Weather

forecast for kickoff · Open-Meteo
temp60°F · wmo 2
wind16 mph W · gusts 32 mph
rain0% chance

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 25, 2026, 8:00 AM CT
Pittsburgh Steelers
PITBen Skowronek · calfInactive
PITBrandin Echols · hamstringInactive
PITDrew Allar · coach's decisionInactive
PITEli Heidenreich · coach's decisionInactive
PITTerell Smith · coach's decisionInactive
PITWill Howard · coach's decisionInactive
New Orleans Saints
NOCesar Ruiz · kneeInactive
NOJohn Ridgeway III · coach's decisionInactive
NOMike Reid · coach's decisionInactive
NONathan Shepherd · illnessInactive
NOTreyton Welch · coach's decisionInactive
NOTyree Wilson · coach's decisionInactive
NOZach Wilson · coach's decisionInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
PIT·NO
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.43
22.8
points / game
25.3
21.3
points allowed / game
29.7
4−2
season record
2−4
3−0
home record
0−3
1−2
away record
2−1
W2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
320
total yards / game
322
5.1
yards / play
4.7
221
passing yards / game
224
99
rushing yards / game
97
19.2
first downs / game
20.7
1.2
turnovers / game
2.0

Rating Trend

PIT · NO · 25 days
Pittsburgh SteelersNew Orleans Saints
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · NO 0−1
Nov 13, 2022at PITPIT 20 − 10

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Oct 18at TB26 − 19W
Oct 11vs IND34 − 22W
Oct 1at CLE24 − 27L
Sep 27vs CIN30 − 27W
Sep 20at NE3 − 20L
Sep 13vs ATL20 − 13W
Jan 12vs HOU6 − 30L
Jan 4vs BAL26 − 24W
Dec 28, 2025at CLE6 − 13L
Dec 21, 2025at DET29 − 24W

NO · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 18at NYG34 − 27W
Oct 11vs MIN13 − 23L
Oct 5vs ATL24 − 45L
Sep 27vs LV27 − 35L
Sep 20at BAL24 − 17W
Sep 13at DET30 − 31L
Jan 4at ATL17 − 19L
Dec 28, 2025at TEN34 − 26W
Dec 21, 2025vs NYJ29 − 6W
Dec 14, 2025vs CAR20 − 17W