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Chiefs at Broncos

NFL · Sunday, Nov 1 · 3:25 PM CT · Empower Field at Mile High · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 1

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
DEN by 1.2
Expected score
DEN 20.2 – 18.9 KC
Expected total
39.1
ChiefsThe matchupBroncos
+107Our fair odds−107
18.9Expected points20.2
+0.30Power rating+0.53
23.8Points / game20.6
17.2Allowed / game20.1
380Total yards / game270
6.3Yards / play4.7
239Passing yards / game175
5−1Season record5−2
5−5Last 107−3
Omarr Norman-Lott DT · Brashard Smith RB
Ethan Downs LB · Jeff Caldwell WR
Jimmy Holiday WROut (5 each)Nick Gargiulo G · RJ Harvey RB
Talanoa Hufanga S · Caleb Lohner TE
Frank Crum OT

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · DEN chance
Our model fair48.2%51.8%
Kalshi54.7%50.7%
Polymarket US54.0%49.7%
ProphetX53.6%49.1%
Novig53.0%48.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:20 AM CTPolymarket US4:20 AM CTProphetX4:17 AM CTNovig4:11 AM CT
Moneyline
KCKansas City Chiefs+10748%−12154.7%−11754.0%−11553.6%−11353.0%
DENDenver Broncos−10752%−10350.7%+10149.7%+10449.1%+10848.0%
SpreadDEN by 1.2
KCKansas City Chiefs+1.2our margin−1.5 −10350.7%−1.5 −10150.2%−1.5 −10050.0%−1.5 +10449.0%
DENDenver Broncos−1.2our margin+1.5 −11653.7%+1.5 −11653.7%+1.5 −11152.7%+1.5 −10651.5%
Totalwe expect 39.1
Over39.1our totalo40.5 −11252.7%o40.5 −11252.7%o40.5 −11052.4%o40.5 −10651.5%
Under39.1our totalu40.5 −10751.8%u40.5 −10551.2%u40.5 −10050.0%u40.5 +10449.0%

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Broncos by 1.2 expected
Kansas City Chiefs by 41 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 40 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 39 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 5%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 9%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 2%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 7%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 19 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 25 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 27 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 40 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 41 points: <1%
← KC wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Broncos wins by 3 or more46%
Denver Broncos wins by 7 or more30%
Denver Broncos wins by 10 or more23%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.1 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.568%
Total over 39.547%
Total over 46.527%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 61% completions, 221 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTdepth chart
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 58% completions, 151 yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·DEN
Oct 25 at SEA
last game
Oct 25 at ARI
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Kansas City Chiefs
KCOmarr Norman-Lott DT · right knee - acl surgery, back about Nov 1Out
KCL'Jarius Sneed CB · knee, back about Nov 1Questionable
KCMansoor Delane CB · shoulder, back about Nov 1Questionable
KCR Mason Thomas DE · personal, back about Nov 1Questionable
KCBrashard Smith RB · hamstring, back about Nov 22IR
KCEthan Downs LB · knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
KCJeff Caldwell WR · left knee soreness, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
KCJimmy Holiday WR · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
KCJohn Michael Gyllenborg TE · knee sprain, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
KCJosh Simmons OT · back, back about Nov 22IR
and 2 more
Denver Broncos
DENNick Gargiulo G · right knee - acl surgeryOut
DENRJ Harvey RB · knee, back about Nov 8Out
DENTalanoa Hufanga S · ankle, back about Nov 8Out
DENBrandon Jones S · hamstring, back about Nov 1Questionable
DENGarett Bolles OT · hip, back about Nov 1Questionable
DENJaylen Waddle WR · chest, back about Nov 1Questionable
DENZach Allen DE · hamstring, back about Nov 1Questionable
DENCaleb Lohner TE · lower body surgeryIR
DENFrank Crum OT · undisclosedIR
DENJonah Elliss LB · ankle, back about Nov 27IR
and 5 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
KC·DEN
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
+0.53
23.8
points / game
20.6
17.2
points allowed / game
20.1
5−1
season record
5−2
3−0
home record
3−0
2−1
away record
2−2
L1
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
7−3
380
total yards / game
270
6.3
yards / play
4.7
239
passing yards / game
175
142
rushing yards / game
95
19.5
first downs / game
16.6
0.8
turnovers / game
0.9

Rating Trend

KC · DEN · 30 days
Kansas City ChiefsDenver Broncos
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 4−6
Sep 14at KCKC 31 − 10
Dec 25, 2025at KCDEN 20 − 13
Nov 16, 2025at DENDEN 22 − 19
Jan 5, 2025at DENDEN 38 − 0
Nov 10, 2024at KCKC 16 − 14
Oct 29, 2023at DENDEN 24 − 9
Oct 12, 2023at KCKC 19 − 8
Jan 1, 2023at KCKC 27 − 24
Dec 11, 2022at DENKC 34 − 28
Jan 8, 2022at DENKC 28 − 24

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 25at SEA3 − 20L
Oct 18vs LAC22 − 6W
Oct 4at LV30 − 27W
Sep 27at MIA24 − 10W
Sep 20vs IND33 − 30W
Sep 14vs DEN31 − 10W
Jan 4at LV12 − 14L
Dec 25, 2025vs DEN13 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at TEN9 − 26L
Dec 14, 2025vs LAC13 − 16L

DEN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Oct 25at ARI30 − 16W
Oct 15vs SEA17 − 14W
Oct 11at LAC23 − 17W
Oct 4at SF14 − 24L
Sep 27vs LAR30 − 26W
Sep 20vs JAX20 − 13W
Sep 14at KC10 − 31L
Jan 25vs NE7 − 10L
Jan 17vs BUF33 − 30W
Jan 4vs LAC19 − 3W