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Bears at Seahawks

NFL · Monday, Nov 2 · 7:15 PM CT · Lumen Field · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 2

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
SEA by 4.7
Expected score
SEA 25.4 – 20.7 CHI
Expected total
46.1
BearsThe matchupSeahawks
+148Our fair odds−148
20.7Expected points25.4
+0.39Power rating+0.84
25.7Points / game24.0
20.4Allowed / game17.9
391Total yards / game343
5.4Yards / play5.4
236Passing yards / game230
5−2Season record4−3
6−4Last 107−3
Braxton Jones OT · Brittain Brown RB
Coby Bryant S · Cole Kmet TE
Dallis Flowers CBOut (5 each)Terrion Arnold CB · Bud Clark S
Elijah Arroyo TE · Jadarian Price RB
Jake Bobo WR

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · SEA chance
Our model fair40.3%59.7%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket US40.4%63.1%
ProphetX40.0%62.3%
Novig40.0%61.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:27 AM CTPolymarket US4:27 AM CTProphetX4:17 AM CTNovig4:14 AM CT
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bears+14840%+14041.7%+14840.4%+15040.0%+15040.0%
SEASeattle Seahawks−14860%−16862.7%−17163.1%−16562.3%−15661.0%
SpreadSEA by 4.7
CHIChicago Bears+4.7our margin+3.5 −12655.7%+3.5 −12355.2%+3.5 −12255.0%+3.5 −12054.5%
SEASeattle Seahawks−4.7our margin−3.5 +10548.7%−3.5 +10548.7%−3.5 +11047.6%−3.5 +11546.5%
Totalwe expect 46.1
Over46.1our totalo46.5 −10751.8%o46.5 −10751.7%o46.5 −10651.5%o46.5 −10250.5%
Under46.1our totalu46.5 −11252.7%u46.5 −10952.2%u46.5 −10651.5%u46.5 −10250.5%

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 4.7 expected
Chicago Bears by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 22 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 15 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 13 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 9 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 7%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 7%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 41 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 42 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 43 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 44 points: <1%
← CHI wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more56%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more40%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more32%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.1 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.566%
Total over 46.546%
Total over 53.529%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 71% completions, 250 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTdepth chart
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 60% completions, 243 yds/game, 2 TD, 5 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·SEA
Oct 22 vs NE
last game
Oct 25 vs KC
10 days
days of rest
7 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Chicago Bears
CHIColston Loveland TE · neck, back about Nov 2Questionable
CHID'Marco Jackson LB · ankle, back about Nov 2Questionable
CHIJack Sanborn LB · concussion, back about Nov 2Questionable
CHIKyle Monangai RB · thumb sprain, back about Nov 2Questionable
CHIMalik Muhammad II CB · toe, back about Nov 2Questionable
CHIBraxton Jones OT · knee, back about Nov 2IR
CHIBrittain Brown RB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
CHICoby Bryant S · left knee surgery, back about Dec 19IR
CHICole Kmet TE · right knee, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
CHIDallis Flowers CB · right leg, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 6 more
Seattle Seahawks
SEATerrion Arnold CB · personalOut
SEACharles Cross OT · ankle sprain, back about Nov 2Doubtful
SEAAnthony Bradford G · knee, back about Nov 2Questionable
SEAChazz Surratt LB · calf, back about Nov 2Questionable
SEAConnor O'Toole LB · hamstring, back about Nov 2Questionable
SEADrake Thomas LB · ankle, back about Nov 2Questionable
SEADrew Lock QB · right elbow, back about Nov 2Questionable
SEALeonard Williams DT · achilles, back about Nov 2Questionable
SEAPatrick O'Connell LB · toeQuestionable
SEARashid Shaheed WR · knee, back about Nov 2Questionable
and 11 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
CHI·SEA
+0.39
rating (0 = average)
+0.84
25.7
points / game
24.0
20.4
points allowed / game
17.9
5−2
season record
4−3
3−1
home record
3−1
2−1
away record
1−2
W2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
7−3
391
total yards / game
343
5.4
yards / play
5.4
236
passing yards / game
230
154
rushing yards / game
114
22.7
first downs / game
20.7
1.6
turnovers / game
1.9

Rating Trend

CHI · SEA · 30 days
Chicago BearsSeattle Seahawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · SEA 1−1
Dec 26, 2024at CHISEA 6 − 3
Dec 26, 2021at SEACHI 25 − 24

CHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Oct 22vs NE30 − 24W
Oct 18at ATL31 − 23W
Oct 11at GB7 − 31L
Oct 4vs NYJ23 − 12W
Sep 28vs PHI27 − 7W
Sep 20vs MIN3 − 9L
Sep 13at CAR59 − 37W
Jan 18vs LAR17 − 20L
Jan 10vs GB31 − 27W
Jan 4vs DET16 − 19L

SEA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Oct 25vs KC20 − 3W
Oct 15at DEN14 − 17L
Oct 11vs SF29 − 32L
Oct 4vs LAC30 − 23W
Sep 27at WSH31 − 33L
Sep 20at ARI31 − 7W
Sep 9vs NE13 − 10W
Feb 8at NE29 − 13W
Jan 25vs LAR31 − 27W
Jan 17vs SF41 − 6W