bayesRatings

Bears at Falcons

NFL · Sunday, Oct 18 · 12:00 PM CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Final CHI 31 – ATL 23
← NFL / Oct 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI1477331
ATL0701623
Team box
CHI·ATL
368
total yards
257
270
passing yards
194
98
rushing yards
63
20
first downs
13
9-17
third downs
3-12
1
turnovers
3
40:08
time of possession
19:52
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Caleb WilliamsCHI30/3630510
Michael Penix Jr.ATL19/3322530
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Roschon JohnsonCHI13511
Bijan RobinsonATL9610
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Luther Burden IIICHI8950
Jahan DotsonATL3871

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +24
CHI +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 0 · CHI 24lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 52%, ATL 48% · Updated Oct 18

Expected margin
CHI by 2.0
Expected score
CHI 24.1 – 22.1 ATL
Expected total
46.3
BearsThe matchupFalcons
−110Our fair odds+110
24.1Expected points22.1
+0.24Power rating−0.15
23.8Points / game23.8
19.2Allowed / game24.4
392Total yards / game362
5.3Yards / play5.8
219Passing yards / game195
3−2Season record2−3
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · ATL chance
Our model fair52.3%47.7%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket US53.2%50.5%
ProphetX52.7%50.0%
Novig51.5%49.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 11:59 AM CTProphetXpre-game · 11:58 AM CTNovigpre-game · 11:51 AM CT
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bears−11052%−11653.7%−11453.2%−11152.7%−10651.5%
ATLAtlanta Falcons+11048%−10350.7%−10250.5%−10050.0%+10449.0%
SpreadCHI by 2.0
CHIChicago Bears−2our margin−1.5 −10350.7%−1.5 −10150.2%−1.5 +10249.6%−1.5 +10449.0%
ATLAtlanta Falcons+2our margin+1.5 −12154.7%+1.5 −11653.7%+1.5 −11252.9%+1.5 −10852.0%
Totalwe expect 46.3
Over46.3our totalo50.5 −12655.7%o50.5 −12655.7%o50.5 −12054.6%o50.5 −11754.0%
Under46.3our totalu50.5 +10548.7%u50.5 +10748.2%u50.5 +10947.8%u50.5 +11347.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Bears by 2.0 expected
Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 5%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 9%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 7%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 4%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%
← CHI wins byATL wins by →
Chicago Bears wins by 3 or more52%
Chicago Bears wins by 7 or more33%
Chicago Bears wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.3 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.567%
Total over 46.547%
Total over 53.529%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 61% completions, 221 yds/game, 4 TD, 4 INTstarted
ATLMichael Penix Jr. · last 3 games: 68% completions, 240 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·ATL
Oct 11 at GB
last game
Oct 11 vs BAL
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Weather

forecast for kickoff · NWS
temp61°F · sunny
wind15 mph E
rain0% chance

For context, not in our forecast. Retractable roof, so it may be closed.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 18, 2026, 11:30 AM CT
Chicago Bears
CHICase Keenum · coach's decisionInactive
CHIJayden Loving · coach's decisionInactive
CHIJordan McFadden · coach's decisionInactive
CHIKeyshaun Elliott · quadricepsInactive
CHIKyle Monangai · toeInactive
CHIT.J. Edwards · hamstringInactive
CHITyrique Stevenson Sr. · hipInactive
Atlanta Falcons
ATLC.J. Henderson · groinInactive
ATLChristian Harris · coach's decisionInactive
ATLCooper Rush · coach's decisionInactive
ATLDrake Jackson · coach's decisionInactive
ATLEthan Onianwa · coach's decisionInactive
ATLJack Strand · coach's decisionInactive
ATLMalcolm DeWalt IV · coach's decisionInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
CHI·ATL
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
23.8
points / game
23.8
19.2
points allowed / game
24.4
3−2
season record
2−3
2−1
home record
0−2
1−1
away record
2−1
L1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
392
total yards / game
362
5.3
yards / play
5.8
219
passing yards / game
195
173
rushing yards / game
167
23.6
first downs / game
19.8
2.0
turnovers / game
1.8

Rating Trend

CHI · ATL · 18 days
Chicago BearsAtlanta Falcons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · ATL 1−1
Dec 31, 2023at CHICHI 37 − 17
Nov 20, 2022at ATLATL 27 − 24

CHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 11at GB7 − 31L
Oct 4vs NYJ23 − 12W
Sep 28vs PHI27 − 7W
Sep 20vs MIN3 − 9L
Sep 13at CAR59 − 37W
Jan 18vs LAR17 − 20L
Jan 10vs GB31 − 27W
Jan 4vs DET16 − 19L
Dec 28, 2025at SF38 − 42L
Dec 20, 2025vs GB22 − 16W

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 11vs BAL23 − 30L
Oct 5at NO45 − 24W
Sep 24at GB35 − 14W
Sep 20vs CAR3 − 34L
Sep 13at PIT13 − 20L
Jan 4vs NO19 − 17W
Dec 29, 2025vs LAR27 − 24W
Dec 21, 2025at ARI26 − 19W
Dec 11, 2025at TB29 − 28W
Dec 7, 2025vs SEA9 − 37L