bayesRatings

Ravens at Falcons

NFL · Sunday, Oct 11 · 7:20 PM CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Final BAL 30 – ATL 23
← NFL / Oct 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
BAL3668730
ATL7736023
Team box
BAL·ATL
391
total yards
367
183
passing yards
257
208
rushing yards
110
24
first downs
17
8-15
third downs
9-17
1
turnovers
1
35:10
time of possession
32:45
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Tyler HuntleyBAL24/3220120
Michael Penix Jr.ATL19/3224010
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Derrick HenryBAL241020
Bijan RobinsonATL17860
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Rashod BatemanBAL5620
Drake LondonATL71180

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +8
BAL +8
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: ATL 8 · BAL 7lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 52%, ATL 48% · Updated Oct 11

Expected margin
BAL by 3.2
Expected score
BAL 27.0 – 23.8 ATL
Expected total
50.8
RavensThe matchupFalcons
−107Our fair odds+107
27.0Expected points23.8
+0.22Power rating−0.07
29.0Points / game24.0
24.0Allowed / game23.0
395Total yards / game360
6.6Yards / play5.9
242Passing yards / game180
3−1Season record2−2
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · ATL chance
Our model fair51.6%48.4%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Ravens−10752%+15239.6%———
ATLAtlanta Falcons+10748%−18364.6%———
SpreadBAL by 3.2
BALBaltimore Ravens−3.2our margin————
ATLAtlanta Falcons+3.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 50.8
Over50.8our total————
Under50.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Ravens by 3.2 expected
Baltimore Ravens by 39 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 5%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 9%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 7%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 4%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%
← BAL wins byATL wins by →
Baltimore Ravens wins by 3 or more55%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 7 or more37%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 10 or more28%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

50.8 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 43.567%
Total over 50.548%
Total over 57.532%
Total from 44 to 5735%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BALTyler Huntley · last 3 games: 85% completions, 78 yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INTstarted
ATLMichael Penix Jr. · last 3 games: 75% completions, 218 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·ATL
Oct 4 vs TEN
last game
Oct 5 at NO
6 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
BAL·ATL
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
29.0
points / game
24.0
24.0
points allowed / game
23.0
3−1
season record
2−2
1−1
home record
0−1
2−0
away record
2−1
W2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
6−4
395
total yards / game
360
6.6
yards / play
5.9
242
passing yards / game
180
154
rushing yards / game
181
21.0
first downs / game
20.5
0.5
turnovers / game
2.0

Rating Trend

BAL · ATL · 11 days
Baltimore RavensAtlanta Falcons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · ATL 0−1
Dec 24, 2022at BALBAL 17 − 9

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 4vs TEN24 − 18W
Sep 27at DAL34 − 31W
Sep 20vs NO17 − 24L
Sep 13at IND41 − 23W
Jan 4at PIT24 − 26L
Dec 27, 2025at GB41 − 24W
Dec 21, 2025vs NE24 − 28L
Dec 14, 2025at CIN24 − 0W
Dec 7, 2025vs PIT22 − 27L
Nov 27, 2025vs CIN14 − 32L

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Oct 5at NO45 − 24W
Sep 24at GB35 − 14W
Sep 20vs CAR3 − 34L
Sep 13at PIT13 − 20L
Jan 4vs NO19 − 17W
Dec 29, 2025vs LAR27 − 24W
Dec 21, 2025at ARI26 − 19W
Dec 11, 2025at TB29 − 28W
Dec 7, 2025vs SEA9 − 37L
Nov 30, 2025at NYJ24 − 27L