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Patriots at Bears

NFL · Thursday, Oct 22 · 7:15 PM CT · Soldier Field · Final NE 24 – CHI 30
← NFL / Oct 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NE0147324
CHI10107330
Team box
NE·CHI
380
total yards
405
310
passing yards
289
70
rushing yards
116
20
first downs
21
2-7
third downs
4-12
1
turnovers
0
27:36
time of possession
32:24
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Drake MayeNE24/3132121
Caleb WilliamsCHI22/3330820
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Drake MayeNE4261
D'Andre SwiftCHI22781
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Rhamondre StevensonNE5931
Luther Burden IIICHI41301

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +13
NE +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 13 · NE 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NE 44%, CHI 56% · Updated Oct 22

Expected margin
CHI by 2.7
Expected score
CHI 25.8 – 23.1 NE
Expected total
48.8
PatriotsThe matchupBears
+129Our fair odds−129
23.1Expected points25.8
+0.59Power rating+0.31
22.7Points / game25.0
18.8Allowed / game19.8
374Total yards / game388
5.8Yards / play5.3
244Passing yards / game228
4−2Season record4−2
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NE chance · CHI chance
Our model fair43.7%56.3%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket US42.4%61.2%
ProphetX41.5%61.1%
Novig40.5%60.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:15 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 7:14 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 7:14 PM CTNovigpre-game · 7:13 PM CT
Moneyline
NENew England Patriots+12944%+13442.7%+13642.4%+14141.5%+14740.5%
CHIChicago Bears−12956%−16161.7%−15861.2%−15761.1%−15060.0%
SpreadCHI by 2.7
NENew England Patriots+2.7our margin+2.5 +10947.7%+2.5 +11247.2%+2.5 +11446.7%+2.5 +11746.0%
CHIChicago Bears−2.7our margin−2.5 −13156.7%−2.5 −13156.7%−2.5 −12755.9%−2.5 −12255.0%
Totalwe expect 48.8
Over48.8our totalo50.5 −11252.7%o50.5 −11453.2%o50.5 −10551.2%o50.5 −10451.0%
Under48.8our totalu50.5 −10751.8%u50.5 −10350.7%u50.5 −10451.0%u50.5 +10249.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Bears by 2.7 expected
New England Patriots by 42 points: <1%New England Patriots by 41 points: <1%New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 35 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: <1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: <1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 28 points: 1%New England Patriots by 27 points: <1%New England Patriots by 26 points: <1%New England Patriots by 25 points: <1%New England Patriots by 24 points: 1%New England Patriots by 23 points: 1%New England Patriots by 22 points: <1%New England Patriots by 21 points: 1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 1%New England Patriots by 19 points: 1%New England Patriots by 18 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 1%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 15 points: <1%New England Patriots by 14 points: 2%New England Patriots by 13 points: <1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 1%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 2%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 8 points: 2%New England Patriots by 7 points: 4%New England Patriots by 6 points: 3%New England Patriots by 5 points: 3%New England Patriots by 4 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 8%New England Patriots by 2 points: 2%New England Patriots by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 7%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 42 points: <1%
← NE wins byCHI wins by →
Chicago Bears wins by 3 or more50%
Chicago Bears wins by 7 or more34%
Chicago Bears wins by 10 or more26%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.8 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.567%
Total over 48.548%
Total over 55.531%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 64% completions, 293 yds/game, 10 TD, 1 INTstarted
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 73% completions, 237 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NE·CHI
Oct 18 vs NYJ
last game
Oct 18 at ATL
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Weather

forecast for kickoff · NWS
temp60°F · clear
wind5 mph ENE
rain0% chance

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 22, 2026, 6:50 PM CT
New England Patriots
NEBehren Morton · coach's decisionInactive
NEJoshua Farmer · coach's decisionInactive
Chicago Bears
CHICase Keenum · coach's decisionInactive
CHIJayden Loving · coach's decisionInactive
CHIJordan McFadden · coach's decisionInactive
CHIKyle Monangai · toeInactive
CHINick McCloud · coach's decisionInactive
CHIT.J. Edwards · hamstringInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
NE·CHI
+0.59
rating (0 = average)
+0.31
22.7
points / game
25.0
18.8
points allowed / game
19.8
4−2
season record
4−2
3−0
home record
2−1
1−2
away record
2−1
W3
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
374
total yards / game
388
5.8
yards / play
5.3
244
passing yards / game
228
131
rushing yards / game
161
21.3
first downs / game
23.0
2.2
turnovers / game
1.8

Rating Trend

NE · CHI · 22 days
New England PatriotsChicago Bears
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · CHI 1−1
Nov 10, 2024at CHINE 19 − 3
Oct 24, 2022at NECHI 33 − 14

NE · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Oct 18vs NYJ26 − 19W
Oct 11vs LV45 − 17W
Oct 4at BUF29 − 26W
Sep 27at JAX6 − 35L
Sep 20vs PIT20 − 3W
Sep 9at SEA10 − 13L
Feb 8vs SEA13 − 29L
Jan 25at DEN10 − 7W
Jan 18vs HOU28 − 16W
Jan 11vs LAC16 − 3W

CHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 18at ATL31 − 23W
Oct 11at GB7 − 31L
Oct 4vs NYJ23 − 12W
Sep 28vs PHI27 − 7W
Sep 20vs MIN3 − 9L
Sep 13at CAR59 − 37W
Jan 18vs LAR17 − 20L
Jan 10vs GB31 − 27W
Jan 4vs DET16 − 19L
Dec 28, 2025at SF38 − 42L