bayesRatings

Patriots at Bills

NFL · Sunday, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Highmark Stadium · Final NE 29 – BUF 26
← NFL / Oct 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NE777829
BUF0170926
Team box
NE·BUF
405
total yards
340
262
passing yards
249
143
rushing yards
91
26
first downs
19
5-12
third downs
6-12
2
turnovers
2
33:41
time of possession
26:19
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Drake MayeNE22/3726931
Josh AllenBUF23/3325311
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Drake MayeNE8540
James Cook IIIBUF12751
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Hunter HenryNE5620
Keon ColemanBUF61161

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +7
NE +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BUF 5 · NE 7lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NE 36%, BUF 64% · Updated Oct 4

Expected margin
BUF by 7.4
Expected score
BUF 26.7 – 19.3 NE
Expected total
46.0
PatriotsThe matchupBills
+175Our fair odds−175
19.3Expected points26.7
+0.29Power rating+0.65
12.0Points / game33.7
17.0Allowed / game26.0
307Total yards / game402
5.2Yards / play6.7
198Passing yards / game247
1−2Season record3−0
7−3Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NE chance · BUF chance
Our model fair36.4%63.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NENew England Patriots+17536%————
BUFBuffalo Bills−17564%————
SpreadBUF by 7.4
NENew England Patriots+7.4our margin————
BUFBuffalo Bills−7.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.0
Over46.0our total————
Under46.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 7.4 expected
New England Patriots by 46 points: <1%New England Patriots by 45 points: <1%New England Patriots by 44 points: <1%New England Patriots by 43 points: <1%New England Patriots by 42 points: <1%New England Patriots by 41 points: <1%New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 35 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: <1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: <1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 28 points: <1%New England Patriots by 27 points: <1%New England Patriots by 26 points: <1%New England Patriots by 25 points: <1%New England Patriots by 24 points: <1%New England Patriots by 23 points: <1%New England Patriots by 22 points: <1%New England Patriots by 21 points: 1%New England Patriots by 20 points: <1%New England Patriots by 19 points: <1%New England Patriots by 18 points: <1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 1%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 15 points: <1%New England Patriots by 14 points: 2%New England Patriots by 13 points: <1%New England Patriots by 12 points: <1%New England Patriots by 11 points: <1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 2%New England Patriots by 9 points: <1%New England Patriots by 8 points: 1%New England Patriots by 7 points: 3%New England Patriots by 6 points: 2%New England Patriots by 5 points: 2%New England Patriots by 4 points: 2%New England Patriots by 3 points: 6%New England Patriots by 2 points: 1%New England Patriots by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 2%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 7%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 40 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 41 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 42 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 43 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 44 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 45 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 46 points: <1%
← NE wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more64%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more48%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more40%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.0 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.566%
Total over 46.546%
Total over 53.529%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 64% completions, 195 yds/game, 1 TD, 6 INTstarted
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 65% completions, 262 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NE·BUF
Sep 27 at JAX
last game
Sep 27 vs LAC
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
NE·BUF
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
+0.65
12.0
points / game
33.7
17.0
points allowed / game
26.0
1−2
season record
3−0
1−0
home record
2−0
0−2
away record
1−0
L1
streak
W3
7−3
last 10
8−2
307
total yards / game
402
5.2
yards / play
6.7
198
passing yards / game
247
109
rushing yards / game
155
17.0
first downs / game
25.3
2.7
turnovers / game
1.7

Rating Trend

NE · BUF · 8 days
New England PatriotsBuffalo Bills
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BUF 7−3
Dec 14, 2025at NEBUF 35 − 31
Oct 5, 2025at BUFNE 23 − 20
Jan 5, 2025at NENE 23 − 16
Dec 22, 2024at BUFBUF 24 − 21
Dec 31, 2023at BUFBUF 27 − 21
Oct 22, 2023at NENE 29 − 25
Jan 8, 2023at BUFBUF 35 − 23
Dec 1, 2022at NEBUF 24 − 10
Jan 15, 2022at BUFBUF 47 − 17post
Dec 26, 2021at NEBUF 33 − 21

NE · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Sep 27at JAX6 − 35L
Sep 20vs PIT20 − 3W
Sep 9at SEA10 − 13L
Feb 8vs SEA13 − 29L
Jan 25at DEN10 − 7W
Jan 18vs HOU28 − 16W
Jan 11vs LAC16 − 3W
Jan 4vs MIA38 − 10W
Dec 28, 2025at NYJ42 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025at BAL28 − 24W

BUF · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Sep 27vs LAC24 − 16W
Sep 17vs DET41 − 31W
Sep 13at HOU36 − 31W
Jan 17at DEN30 − 33L
Jan 11at JAX27 − 24W
Jan 4vs NYJ35 − 8W
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI12 − 13L
Dec 21, 2025at CLE23 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025at NE35 − 31W
Dec 7, 2025vs CIN39 − 34W