bayesRatings

Raiders at Patriots

NFL · Sunday, Oct 11 · 12:00 PM CT · Gillette Stadium · Final LV 17 – NE 45
← NFL / Oct 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LV703717
NE147141045
Team box
LV·NE
306
total yards
536
268
passing yards
371
38
rushing yards
165
16
first downs
29
5-13
third downs
6-12
1
turnovers
1
25:33
time of possession
34:27
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Kirk CousinsLV19/2824310
Drake MayeNE26/3437440
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Ashton JeantyLV10270
Rhamondre StevensonNE13641
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Brock BowersLV81101
Kyle WilliamsNE3911

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NE +28
LV +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NE 28 · LV 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LV 29%, NE 71% · Updated Oct 11

Expected margin
NE by 9.3
Expected score
NE 24.1 – 14.8 LV
Expected total
39.0
RaidersThe matchupPatriots
+241Our fair odds−241
14.8Expected points24.1
−0.31Power rating+0.42
28.8Points / game16.2
21.0Allowed / game19.2
343Total yards / game332
5.1Yards / play5.3
250Passing yards / game214
3−1Season record2−2
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LV chance · NE chance
Our model fair29.3%70.7%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LVLas Vegas Raiders+24129%+15239.6%———
NENew England Patriots−24171%−18364.6%———
SpreadNE by 9.3
LVLas Vegas Raiders+9.3our margin————
NENew England Patriots−9.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.0
Over39.0our total————
Under39.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New England Patriots by 9.3 expected
Las Vegas Raiders by 48 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 47 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 46 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 45 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 44 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 43 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 42 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 41 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 6%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%New England Patriots by 1 point: 2%New England Patriots by 2 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 7%New England Patriots by 4 points: 2%New England Patriots by 5 points: 2%New England Patriots by 6 points: 4%New England Patriots by 7 points: 4%New England Patriots by 8 points: 3%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 2%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 2%New England Patriots by 13 points: 2%New England Patriots by 14 points: 2%New England Patriots by 15 points: 1%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 4%New England Patriots by 18 points: 2%New England Patriots by 19 points: 1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 2%New England Patriots by 21 points: 2%New England Patriots by 22 points: 1%New England Patriots by 23 points: 2%New England Patriots by 24 points: 3%New England Patriots by 25 points: 1%New England Patriots by 26 points: 1%New England Patriots by 27 points: 1%New England Patriots by 28 points: 1%New England Patriots by 29 points: 1%New England Patriots by 30 points: 1%New England Patriots by 31 points: 2%New England Patriots by 32 points: 1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: 1%New England Patriots by 35 points: 1%New England Patriots by 36 points: 1%New England Patriots by 37 points: 1%New England Patriots by 38 points: 1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 41 points: <1%New England Patriots by 42 points: <1%New England Patriots by 43 points: <1%New England Patriots by 44 points: <1%New England Patriots by 45 points: <1%New England Patriots by 46 points: <1%New England Patriots by 47 points: <1%New England Patriots by 48 points: <1%
← LV wins byNE wins by →
New England Patriots wins by 3 or more68%
New England Patriots wins by 7 or more53%
New England Patriots wins by 10 or more45%
Within 3 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.0 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.568%
Total over 39.547%
Total over 46.527%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LVKirk Cousins · last 3 games: 63% completions, 289 yds/game, 8 TD, 2 INTstarted
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 60% completions, 225 yds/game, 3 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LV·NE
Oct 4 vs KC
last game
Oct 4 at BUF
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
LV·NE
−0.31
rating (0 = average)
+0.42
28.8
points / game
16.2
21.0
points allowed / game
19.2
3−1
season record
2−2
1−1
home record
1−0
2−0
away record
1−2
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
7−3
343
total yards / game
332
5.1
yards / play
5.3
250
passing yards / game
214
93
rushing yards / game
118
21.8
first downs / game
19.2
1.5
turnovers / game
2.5

Rating Trend

LV · NE · 11 days
Las Vegas RaidersNew England Patriots
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · NE 0−3
Sep 7, 2025at NELV 20 − 13
Oct 15, 2023at LVLV 21 − 17
Dec 18, 2022at LVLV 30 − 24

LV · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 4vs KC27 − 30L
Sep 27at NO35 − 27W
Sep 20at LAC26 − 14W
Sep 13vs MIA27 − 13W
Jan 4vs KC14 − 12W
Dec 28, 2025vs NYG10 − 34L
Dec 21, 2025at HOU21 − 23L
Dec 14, 2025at PHI0 − 31L
Dec 7, 2025vs DEN17 − 24L
Nov 30, 2025at LAC14 − 31L

NE · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Oct 4at BUF29 − 26W
Sep 27at JAX6 − 35L
Sep 20vs PIT20 − 3W
Sep 9at SEA10 − 13L
Feb 8vs SEA13 − 29L
Jan 25at DEN10 − 7W
Jan 18vs HOU28 − 16W
Jan 11vs LAC16 − 3W
Jan 4vs MIA38 − 10W
Dec 28, 2025at NYJ42 − 10W