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Jets at Patriots

NFL · Sunday, Oct 18 · 12:00 PM CT · Gillette Stadium · Final NYJ 19 – NE 26
← NFL / Oct 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NYJ3010619
NE7100926
Team box
NYJ·NE
324
total yards
383
227
passing yards
235
97
rushing yards
148
21
first downs
22
3-10
third downs
8-15
1
turnovers
2
30:03
time of possession
29:57
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Geno SmithNYJ20/3025211
Drake MayeNE18/3223530
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Braelon AllenNYJ17780
Corey KinerNE11570
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ61031
DeMario DouglasNE7861

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NE +14
NYJ +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NE 14 · NYJ 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYJ 23%, NE 77% · Updated Oct 18

Expected margin
NE by 14.3
Expected score
NE 26.8 – 12.5 NYJ
Expected total
39.3
JetsThe matchupPatriots
+333Our fair odds−333
12.5Expected points26.8
−0.67Power rating+0.62
18.6Points / game22.0
19.2Allowed / game18.8
284Total yards / game372
4.9Yards / play5.8
190Passing yards / game245
2−3Season record3−2
2−8Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYJ chance · NE chance
Our model fair23.1%76.9%
Kalshi26.3%77.3%
Polymarket US25.5%77.3%
ProphetX25.9%76.9%
Novig24.5%76.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 11:59 AM CTProphetXpre-game · 11:58 AM CTNovigpre-game · 11:48 AM CT
Moneyline
NYJNew York Jets+33323%+28026.3%+29225.5%+28625.9%+30824.5%
NENew England Patriots−33377%−34077.3%−34077.3%−33476.9%−31776.0%
SpreadNE by 14.3
NYJNew York Jets+14.3our margin+6.5 +10548.7%+6.5 +10748.2%+6.5 +10748.2%+7.5 −11553.5%
NENew England Patriots−14.3our margin−6.5 −12655.7%−6.5 −12655.7%−6.5 −12054.6%−7.5 +11347.0%
Totalwe expect 39.3
Over39.3our totalo42.5 −10751.8%o42.5 −10751.7%o42.5 −10551.2%o42.5 −10250.5%
Under39.3our totalu42.5 −11252.7%u42.5 −10952.2%u42.5 −10451.0%u42.5 +10050.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New England Patriots by 14.3 expected
New York Jets by 49 points: <1%New York Jets by 48 points: <1%New York Jets by 47 points: <1%New York Jets by 46 points: <1%New York Jets by 45 points: <1%New York Jets by 44 points: <1%New York Jets by 43 points: <1%New York Jets by 42 points: <1%New York Jets by 41 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: <1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 25 points: <1%New York Jets by 24 points: <1%New York Jets by 23 points: <1%New York Jets by 22 points: <1%New York Jets by 21 points: <1%New York Jets by 20 points: <1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 18 points: <1%New York Jets by 17 points: <1%New York Jets by 16 points: <1%New York Jets by 15 points: <1%New York Jets by 14 points: 1%New York Jets by 13 points: <1%New York Jets by 12 points: <1%New York Jets by 11 points: <1%New York Jets by 10 points: 1%New York Jets by 9 points: <1%New York Jets by 8 points: 1%New York Jets by 7 points: 2%New York Jets by 6 points: 1%New York Jets by 5 points: 1%New York Jets by 4 points: 1%New York Jets by 3 points: 4%New York Jets by 2 points: 1%New York Jets by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%New England Patriots by 1 point: 1%New England Patriots by 2 points: 2%New England Patriots by 3 points: 6%New England Patriots by 4 points: 2%New England Patriots by 5 points: 2%New England Patriots by 6 points: 4%New England Patriots by 7 points: 4%New England Patriots by 8 points: 3%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 2%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 2%New England Patriots by 13 points: 2%New England Patriots by 14 points: 3%New England Patriots by 15 points: 2%New England Patriots by 16 points: 2%New England Patriots by 17 points: 5%New England Patriots by 18 points: 3%New England Patriots by 19 points: 1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 2%New England Patriots by 21 points: 3%New England Patriots by 22 points: 2%New England Patriots by 23 points: 2%New England Patriots by 24 points: 3%New England Patriots by 25 points: 2%New England Patriots by 26 points: 2%New England Patriots by 27 points: 1%New England Patriots by 28 points: 2%New England Patriots by 29 points: 1%New England Patriots by 30 points: 1%New England Patriots by 31 points: 3%New England Patriots by 32 points: 1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: 2%New England Patriots by 35 points: 1%New England Patriots by 36 points: 1%New England Patriots by 37 points: 1%New England Patriots by 38 points: 1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 40 points: 1%New England Patriots by 41 points: 1%New England Patriots by 42 points: 1%New England Patriots by 43 points: <1%New England Patriots by 44 points: <1%New England Patriots by 45 points: <1%New England Patriots by 46 points: <1%New England Patriots by 47 points: <1%New England Patriots by 48 points: <1%New England Patriots by 49 points: <1%
← NYJ wins byNE wins by →
New England Patriots wins by 3 or more80%
New England Patriots wins by 7 or more67%
New England Patriots wins by 10 or more58%
Within 3 points either way16%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.3 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.569%
Total over 39.548%
Total over 46.528%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NYJGeno Smith · last 3 games: 68% completions, 207 yds/game, 5 TD, 0 INTstarted
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 65% completions, 281 yds/game, 7 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYJ·NE
Oct 11 vs CLE
last game
Oct 11 vs LV
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Weather

forecast for kickoff · NWS
temp52°F · sunny
wind3 mph N
rain0% chance

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 18, 2026, 11:30 AM CT
New York Jets
NYJAdonai Mitchell · fingerInactive
NYJBreece Hall · quadricepsInactive
NYJDylan Parham · kneeInactive
NYJJack Heflin · coach's decisionInactive
NYJJoseph Ossai · ankleInactive
NYJNahshon Wright · coach's decisionInactive
New England Patriots
NEBehren Morton · coach's decisionInactive
NECarlton Davis III · neckInactive
NEChanning Canada · hamstringInactive
NEDametrious Crownover · coach's decisionInactive
NEKaron Prunty · hamstringInactive
NETanner Arkin · coach's decisionInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
NYJ·NE
−0.67
rating (0 = average)
+0.62
18.6
points / game
22.0
19.2
points allowed / game
18.8
2−3
season record
3−2
1−1
home record
2−0
1−2
away record
1−2
W1
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
7−3
284
total yards / game
372
4.9
yards / play
5.8
190
passing yards / game
245
94
rushing yards / game
127
16.6
first downs / game
21.2
0.6
turnovers / game
2.2

Rating Trend

NYJ · NE · 18 days
New York JetsNew England Patriots
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NE 8−2
Dec 28, 2025at NYJNE 42 − 10
Nov 13, 2025at NENE 27 − 14
Oct 27, 2024at NENE 25 − 22
Sep 19, 2024at NYJNYJ 24 − 3
Jan 7, 2024at NENYJ 17 − 3
Sep 24, 2023at NYJNE 15 − 10
Nov 20, 2022at NENE 10 − 3
Oct 30, 2022at NYJNE 22 − 17
Oct 24, 2021at NENE 54 − 13
Sep 19, 2021at NYJNE 25 − 6

NYJ · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Oct 11vs CLE17 − 12W
Oct 4at CHI12 − 23L
Sep 27at DET24 − 31L
Sep 20vs GB17 − 20L
Sep 13at TEN23 − 10W
Jan 4at BUF8 − 35L
Dec 28, 2025vs NE10 − 42L
Dec 21, 2025at NO6 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at JAX20 − 48L
Dec 7, 2025vs MIA10 − 34L

NE · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Oct 11vs LV45 − 17W
Oct 4at BUF29 − 26W
Sep 27at JAX6 − 35L
Sep 20vs PIT20 − 3W
Sep 9at SEA10 − 13L
Feb 8vs SEA13 − 29L
Jan 25at DEN10 − 7W
Jan 18vs HOU28 − 16W
Jan 11vs LAC16 − 3W
Jan 4vs MIA38 − 10W