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Packers at Patriots

NFL · Sunday, Nov 8 · 3:25 PM CT · Gillette Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 8

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
NE by 3.4
Expected score
NE 22.6 – 19.3 GB
Expected total
41.9
PackersThe matchupPatriots
+134Our fair odds−134
19.3Expected points22.6
+0.25Power rating+0.49
21.4Points / game22.9
20.5Allowed / game20.4
332Total yards / game375
5.3Yards / play6.1
271Passing yards / game253
5−3Season record4−3
5−5Last 106−4
Luke Musgrave TE · Micah Parsons DE
Sean Rhyan G · Travis Glover OT
Zaire Franklin LBOut (5 each)Harold Landry III LB · Alijah Vera-Tucker G
Dell Pettus S · Greg Van Roten G
Julian Hill TE

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GB chance · NE chance
Our model fair42.8%57.2%
Kalshi49.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi6:02 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GBGreen Bay Packers+13443%+10149.7%———
NENew England Patriots−13457%−14258.7%———
SpreadNE by 3.4
GBGreen Bay Packers+3.4our margin————
NENew England Patriots−3.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 41.9
Over41.9our total————
Under41.9our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New England Patriots by 3.4 expected
Green Bay Packers by 43 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 42 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 41 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 40 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 39 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 38 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 8%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New England Patriots by 1 point: 2%New England Patriots by 2 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 7%New England Patriots by 4 points: 2%New England Patriots by 5 points: 2%New England Patriots by 6 points: 4%New England Patriots by 7 points: 4%New England Patriots by 8 points: 3%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 2%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 2%New England Patriots by 13 points: 2%New England Patriots by 14 points: 2%New England Patriots by 15 points: 1%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 3%New England Patriots by 18 points: 1%New England Patriots by 19 points: 1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 1%New England Patriots by 21 points: 1%New England Patriots by 22 points: 1%New England Patriots by 23 points: 1%New England Patriots by 24 points: 2%New England Patriots by 25 points: 1%New England Patriots by 26 points: 1%New England Patriots by 27 points: 1%New England Patriots by 28 points: 1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: 1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: 1%New England Patriots by 35 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 41 points: <1%New England Patriots by 42 points: <1%New England Patriots by 43 points: <1%
← GB wins byNE wins by →
New England Patriots wins by 3 or more52%
New England Patriots wins by 7 or more36%
New England Patriots wins by 10 or more28%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

41.9 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 34.570%
Total over 41.549%
Total over 48.530%
Total from 35 to 4840%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
GBJordan Love · last 3 games: 63% completions, 279 yds/game, 6 TD, 3 INTdepth chart
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 70% completions, 310 yds/game, 9 TD, 1 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GB·NE
Oct 29 vs CAR
last game
Oct 22 at CHI
9 days
days of rest
16 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Green Bay Packers
GBLuke Musgrave TE · neck, back about Nov 25Out
GBMicah Parsons DE · left knee - acl surgery, back about Nov 8Out
GBSean Rhyan G · ankle sprain, back about Nov 25Out
GBTravis Glover OT · knee, back about Nov 8Out
GBZaire Franklin LB · shin fracture, back about Nov 8Out
GBChristian Watson WR · ribs fracture, back about Nov 8Questionable
GBChris Brooks RB · ankle, back about Nov 8IR
GBCollin Oliver DE · achillesIR
GBEdgerrin Cooper LB · left achilles surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
GBJacob Monk C · quadriceps, back about Dec 6IR
and 8 more
New England Patriots
NEHarold Landry III LB · undisclosedOut
NEA.J. Brown WR · kneeQuestionable
NECarlton Davis III CB · neckQuestionable
NEChristian Elliss LB · chestQuestionable
NETreVeyon Henderson RB · illnessQuestionable
NEAlijah Vera-Tucker G · hamstring, back about Nov 29IR
NEDell Pettus S · ankleIR
NEGreg Van Roten G · thighIR
NEJulian Hill TE · knee, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
NEKhalil Jacobs LB · undisclosedIR
and 7 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
GB·NE
+0.25
rating (0 = average)
+0.49
21.4
points / game
22.9
20.5
points allowed / game
20.4
5−3
season record
4−3
3−1
home record
3−0
2−2
away record
1−3
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
332
total yards / game
375
5.3
yards / play
6.1
271
passing yards / game
253
61
rushing yards / game
122
18.0
first downs / game
21.1
1.4
turnovers / game
2.0

Rating Trend

GB · NE · 30 days
Green Bay PackersNew England Patriots
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · NE 0−1
Oct 2, 2022at GBGB 27 − 24

GB · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 29vs CAR27 − 19W
Oct 25at DET17 − 20L
Oct 18vs DAL23 − 13W
Oct 11vs CHI31 − 7W
Oct 4at TB17 − 14W
Sep 24vs ATL14 − 35L
Sep 20at NYJ20 − 17W
Sep 13at MIN22 − 39L
Jan 10at CHI27 − 31L
Jan 4at MIN3 − 16L

NE · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 22at CHI24 − 30L
Oct 18vs NYJ26 − 19W
Oct 11vs LV45 − 17W
Oct 4at BUF29 − 26W
Sep 27at JAX6 − 35L
Sep 20vs PIT20 − 3W
Sep 9at SEA10 − 13L
Feb 8vs SEA13 − 29L
Jan 25at DEN10 − 7W
Jan 18vs HOU28 − 16W