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Texans at Chargers

NFL · Sunday, Nov 8 · 3:05 PM CT · SoFi Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 8

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
HOU by 5.1
Expected score
HOU 22.2 – 17.1 LAC
Expected total
39.3
TexansThe matchupChargers
−183Our fair odds+183
22.2Expected points17.1
+0.09Power rating−0.41
23.6Points / game15.0
24.3Allowed / game25.2
338Total yards / game287
5.5Yards / play4.7
253Passing yards / game168
2−5Season record0−6
4−6Last 101−9
E.J. Speed LB · Jawhar Jordan RB
Ali Gaye DE · British Brooks RB
Dylan Horton DEOut (5 each)Brenen Thompson WR · Deane Leonard CB
Derwin James Jr. S · Isaiah World OT
Kayode Awosika G

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · LAC chance
Our model fair64.7%35.3%
Kalshi67.6%38.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi6:02 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Texans−18365%−20867.6%———
LACLos Angeles Chargers+18335%+15938.6%———
SpreadHOU by 5.1
HOUHouston Texans−5.1our margin————
LACLos Angeles Chargers+5.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.3
Over39.3our total————
Under39.3our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Texans by 5.1 expected
Houston Texans by 40 points: <1%Houston Texans by 39 points: <1%Houston Texans by 38 points: <1%Houston Texans by 37 points: <1%Houston Texans by 36 points: <1%Houston Texans by 35 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: 1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 32 points: <1%Houston Texans by 31 points: 1%Houston Texans by 30 points: <1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 28 points: 2%Houston Texans by 27 points: <1%Houston Texans by 26 points: 1%Houston Texans by 25 points: 1%Houston Texans by 24 points: 2%Houston Texans by 23 points: 2%Houston Texans by 22 points: 1%Houston Texans by 21 points: 2%Houston Texans by 20 points: 1%Houston Texans by 19 points: 1%Houston Texans by 18 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 3%Houston Texans by 16 points: 2%Houston Texans by 15 points: 1%Houston Texans by 14 points: 4%Houston Texans by 13 points: 1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 1%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 3%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 8 points: 2%Houston Texans by 7 points: 5%Houston Texans by 6 points: 4%Houston Texans by 5 points: 3%Houston Texans by 4 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 9%Houston Texans by 2 points: 2%Houston Texans by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 6%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 40 points: <1%
← HOU wins byLAC wins by →
Houston Texans wins by 3 or more61%
Houston Texans wins by 7 or more42%
Houston Texans wins by 10 or more34%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.3 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.569%
Total over 39.548%
Total over 46.528%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 70% completions, 242 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTdepth chart
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 60% completions, 171 yds/game, 2 TD, 4 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·LAC
Oct 25 vs NYG
last game
Oct 18 at KC
13 days
days of rest
20 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Houston Texans
HOUE.J. Speed LB · quadriceps surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027Out
HOUJawhar Jordan RBOut
HOUBlake Fisher OT · thumb, back about Nov 8Questionable
HOUDavid Montgomery RB · groin, back about Nov 8Questionable
HOUJalen Pitre S · left shoulder - ac joint sprain, back about Nov 8Questionable
HOUReed Blankenship S · concussion, back about Nov 8Questionable
HOUAli Gaye DE · knee, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
HOUBritish Brooks RB · hamstring, back about Nov 8IR
HOUDylan Horton DE · achilles surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
HOUGraham Mertz QB · knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 8 more
Los Angeles Chargers
LACBrenen Thompson WR · quadriceps, back about Nov 8Out
LACDeane Leonard CB · concussion, back about Nov 8Out
LACDerwin James Jr. S · hamstring, back about Nov 8Out
LACIsaiah World OT · left kneeOut
LACKayode Awosika G · lower leg, back about Nov 8Out
LACDonte Jackson CB · hamstringQuestionable
LACRodney Shelley CB · hamstringQuestionable
LACAlec Ingold FB · shoulder, back about Nov 22IR
LACDavid Njoku TE · lower legIR
LACDenzel Perryman LB · undisclosed, back about Nov 8IR
and 5 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
HOU·LAC
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.41
23.6
points / game
15.0
24.3
points allowed / game
25.2
2−5
season record
0−6
0−4
home record
0−3
2−1
away record
0−3
L1
streak
L6
4−6
last 10
1−9
338
total yards / game
287
5.5
yards / play
4.7
253
passing yards / game
168
85
rushing yards / game
119
19.9
first downs / game
17.2
0.4
turnovers / game
2.5

Rating Trend

HOU · LAC · 30 days
Houston TexansLos Angeles Chargers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 4 meetings · LAC 1−3
Dec 27, 2025at LACHOU 20 − 16
Jan 11, 2025at HOUHOU 32 − 12post
Oct 2, 2022at HOULAC 34 − 24
Dec 26, 2021at HOUHOU 41 − 29

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 25vs NYG21 − 27L
Oct 18at JAX34 − 31W
Oct 11at TEN26 − 3W
Oct 4vs DAL30 − 34L
Sep 27at IND17 − 19L
Sep 20vs CIN6 − 20L
Sep 13vs BUF31 − 36L
Jan 18at NE16 − 28L
Jan 12at PIT30 − 6W
Jan 4vs IND38 − 30W

LAC · Last 10

1−9 · streak L9
Oct 18at KC6 − 22L
Oct 11vs DEN17 − 23L
Oct 4at SEA23 − 30L
Sep 27at BUF16 − 24L
Sep 20vs LV14 − 26L
Sep 13vs ARI14 − 26L
Jan 11at NE3 − 16L
Jan 4at DEN3 − 19L
Dec 27, 2025vs HOU16 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at DAL34 − 17W