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Texans at Browns

NFL · Sunday, Nov 15 · 12:00 PM CT · Huntington Bank Field · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 15

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Nov 1

Expected margin
HOU by 2.4
Expected score
HOU 20.8 – 18.4 CLE
Expected total
39.1
TexansThe matchupBrowns
−108Our fair odds+108
20.8Expected points18.4
+0.09Power rating−0.20
23.6Points / game19.0
24.3Allowed / game20.9
338Total yards / game299
5.5Yards / play5.0
253Passing yards / game193
2−5Season record5−2
4−6Last 107−3
E.J. Speed LB · Jawhar Jordan RB
Ali Gaye DE · British Brooks RB
Dylan Horton DEOut (5 each)Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB · Joe Royer TE
Alex Wright DE · Damarri Mathis CB
Edefuan Ulofoshio LB

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · CLE chance
Our model fair51.8%48.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Texans−10852%————
CLECleveland Browns+10848%————
SpreadHOU by 2.4
HOUHouston Texans−2.4our margin————
CLECleveland Browns+2.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.1
Over39.1our total————
Under39.1our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Texans by 2.4 expected
Houston Texans by 38 points: <1%Houston Texans by 37 points: <1%Houston Texans by 36 points: <1%Houston Texans by 35 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: <1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 32 points: <1%Houston Texans by 31 points: <1%Houston Texans by 30 points: <1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 28 points: 1%Houston Texans by 27 points: <1%Houston Texans by 26 points: <1%Houston Texans by 25 points: 1%Houston Texans by 24 points: 1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 1%Houston Texans by 22 points: 1%Houston Texans by 21 points: 1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 1%Houston Texans by 19 points: 1%Houston Texans by 18 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 2%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 15 points: 1%Houston Texans by 14 points: 4%Houston Texans by 13 points: 1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 1%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 3%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 8 points: 2%Houston Texans by 7 points: 5%Houston Texans by 6 points: 4%Houston Texans by 5 points: 3%Houston Texans by 4 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 9%Houston Texans by 2 points: 2%Houston Texans by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 7%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 4%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%
← HOU wins byCLE wins by →
Houston Texans wins by 3 or more53%
Houston Texans wins by 7 or more34%
Houston Texans wins by 10 or more26%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.1 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.568%
Total over 39.547%
Total over 46.527%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 70% completions, 242 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTdepth chart
CLEDeshaun Watson · last 3 games: 59% completions, 209 yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·CLE
Oct 25 vs NYG
last game
Oct 25 at TEN
20 days
days of rest
20 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Houston Texans
HOUE.J. Speed LB · quadriceps surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027Out
HOUJawhar Jordan RBOut
HOUBlake Fisher OT · thumbQuestionable
HOUDavid Montgomery RB · groinQuestionable
HOUJalen Pitre S · left shoulder - ac joint sprainQuestionable
HOUReed Blankenship S · concussionQuestionable
HOUAli Gaye DE · knee, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
HOUBritish Brooks RB · hamstringIR
HOUDylan Horton DE · achilles surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
HOUGraham Mertz QB · knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 8 more
Cleveland Browns
CLEJeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB · neck, back about Feb 15, 2027Out
CLEJoe Royer TE · personalOut
CLEDaniel Thomas S · ankleQuestionable
CLEMyles Harden CB · hamstringQuestionable
CLEAlex Wright DE · right achilles surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
CLEDamarri Mathis CB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
CLEEdefuan Ulofoshio LB · biceps, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
CLEElijah Chatman DT · quadriceps, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
CLEKalia Davis DT · quadriceps, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
CLERaheim Sanders RB · hip, back about Nov 15IR
and 1 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
HOU·CLE
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
23.6
points / game
19.0
24.3
points allowed / game
20.9
2−5
season record
5−2
0−4
home record
3−0
2−1
away record
2−2
L1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
7−3
338
total yards / game
299
5.5
yards / play
5.0
253
passing yards / game
193
85
rushing yards / game
107
19.9
first downs / game
17.3
0.4
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

HOU · CLE · 32 days
Houston TexansCleveland Browns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 4 meetings · CLE 3−1
Jan 13, 2024at HOUHOU 45 − 14post
Dec 24, 2023at HOUCLE 36 − 22
Dec 4, 2022at HOUCLE 27 − 14
Sep 19, 2021at CLECLE 31 − 21

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 25vs NYG21 − 27L
Oct 18at JAX34 − 31W
Oct 11at TEN26 − 3W
Oct 4vs DAL30 − 34L
Sep 27at IND17 − 19L
Sep 20vs CIN6 − 20L
Sep 13vs BUF31 − 36L
Jan 18at NE16 − 28L
Jan 12at PIT30 − 6W
Jan 4vs IND38 − 30W

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Oct 25at TEN27 − 24W
Oct 18vs BAL13 − 10W
Oct 11at NYJ12 − 17L
Oct 1vs PIT27 − 24W
Sep 27vs CAR21 − 18W
Sep 20at TB23 − 19W
Sep 13at JAX10 − 34L
Jan 4at CIN20 − 18W
Dec 28, 2025vs PIT13 − 6W
Dec 21, 2025vs BUF20 − 23L