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Jaguars at Titans

NFL · Sunday, Nov 15 · 12:00 PM CT · Nissan Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 15

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Nov 1

Expected margin
JAX by 13.9
Expected score
JAX 28.8 – 14.9 TEN
Expected total
43.7
JaguarsThe matchupTitans
−475Our fair odds+475
28.8Expected points14.9
+0.58Power rating−1.17
25.7Points / game15.4
17.3Allowed / game22.3
348Total yards / game249
5.8Yards / play4.6
235Passing yards / game157
4−2Season record1−6
7−3Last 102−8
Antonio Johnson S · Anton Harrison OT
B.J. Green II DE · Caleb Ransaw S
Garrett DiGiorgio OTOut (5 each)Carnell Tate WR · Tommy Townsend P
Tyjae Spears RB · Dorian Mausi LB
Fernando Carmona G

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
JAX chance · TEN chance
Our model fair82.6%17.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−47583%————
TENTennessee Titans+47517%————
SpreadJAX by 13.9
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−13.9our margin————
TENTennessee Titans+13.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.7
Over43.7our total————
Under43.7our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Jacksonville Jaguars by 13.9 expected
Jacksonville Jaguars by 40 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 39 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: 7%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 5%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 1%Tie: <1%Tennessee Titans by 1 point: 1%Tennessee Titans by 2 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 3 points: 3%Tennessee Titans by 4 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 5 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 6 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 7 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 8 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 9 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 10 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 11 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 12 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 13 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 14 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 15 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 16 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 17 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 18 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 19 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 20 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 21 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 22 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 23 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 24 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 25 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 26 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 27 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 28 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 29 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 30 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 31 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 32 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 33 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 34 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 35 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 36 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 37 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 38 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 39 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 40 points: <1%
← JAX wins byTEN wins by →
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 3 or more76%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 7 or more67%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 10 or more63%
Within 3 points either way11%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.7 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.569%
Total over 43.548%
Total over 50.530%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 64% completions, 288 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTdepth chart
TENCam Ward · last 3 games: 61% completions, 151 yds/game, 1 TD, 3 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
JAX·TEN
Oct 18 vs HOU
last game
Oct 25 vs CLE
27 days
days of rest
20 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Jacksonville Jaguars
JAXAntonio Johnson S · ankleOut
JAXDevon Marshall CBQuestionable
JAXJakobi Meyers WR · hamstringQuestionable
JAXAnton Harrison OT · right knee surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
JAXB.J. Green II DE · elbowIR
JAXCaleb Ransaw S · knee, back about Nov 15IR
JAXGarrett DiGiorgio OT · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
JAXJared Bartlett LB · leg, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
JAXParker Hughes LB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
JAXPatrick Mekari G · back surgeryIR
and 2 more
Tennessee Titans
TENCarnell Tate WR · shoulder, back about Nov 15Out
TENTommy Townsend P · left knee, back about Nov 15Out
TENTyjae Spears RB · knee, back about Nov 15Out
TENCalvin Ridley WR · hipQuestionable
TENJaylon Jones CB · kneeQuestionable
TENJohn Franklin-Myers DE · groinQuestionable
TENDorian Mausi LB · foot, back about Nov 15IR
TENFernando Carmona G · ankle sprainIR
TENJackson Slater G · footIR
TENJaren Kanak TE · pectoral, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 4 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
JAX·TEN
+0.58
rating (0 = average)
−1.17
25.7
points / game
15.4
17.3
points allowed / game
22.3
4−2
season record
1−6
3−1
home record
0−4
1−1
away record
1−2
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
2−8
348
total yards / game
249
5.8
yards / play
4.6
235
passing yards / game
157
113
rushing yards / game
91
21.3
first downs / game
15.3
0.7
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

JAX · TEN · 32 days
Jacksonville JaguarsTennessee Titans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEN 3−7
Jan 4at JAXJAX 41 − 7
Nov 30, 2025at TENJAX 25 − 3
Dec 29, 2024at JAXJAX 20 − 13
Dec 8, 2024at TENJAX 10 − 6
Jan 7, 2024at TENTEN 28 − 20
Nov 19, 2023at JAXJAX 34 − 14
Jan 7, 2023at JAXJAX 20 − 16
Dec 11, 2022at TENJAX 36 − 22
Dec 12, 2021at TENTEN 20 − 0
Oct 10, 2021at JAXTEN 37 − 19

JAX · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Oct 18vs HOU31 − 34L
Oct 11vs PHI19 − 17W
Oct 4at CIN22 − 17W
Sep 27vs NE35 − 6W
Sep 20at DEN13 − 20L
Sep 13vs CLE34 − 10W
Jan 11vs BUF24 − 27L
Jan 4vs TEN41 − 7W
Dec 28, 2025at IND23 − 17W
Dec 21, 2025at DEN34 − 20W

TEN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Oct 25vs CLE24 − 27L
Oct 18at IND26 − 20W
Oct 11vs HOU3 − 26L
Oct 4at BAL18 − 24L
Sep 27at NYG7 − 12L
Sep 20vs PHI20 − 24L
Sep 13vs NYJ10 − 23L
Jan 4at JAX7 − 41L
Dec 28, 2025vs NO26 − 34L
Dec 21, 2025vs KC26 − 9W