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Seahawks at Raiders

NFL · Sunday, Nov 15 · 3:05 PM CT · Allegiant Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 15

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Nov 1

Expected margin
SEA by 11.1
Expected score
SEA 29.4 – 18.2 LV
Expected total
47.6
SeahawksThe matchupRaiders
−257Our fair odds+257
29.4Expected points18.2
+0.84Power rating−0.58
24.0Points / game26.1
17.9Allowed / game28.1
343Total yards / game344
5.4Yards / play5.4
230Passing yards / game269
4−3Season record3−4
7−3Last 104−6
Charles Cross OT · Rashid Shaheed WR
Terrion Arnold CB · Velus Jones Jr. RB
Bud Clark SOut (5 each)Brennan Jackson LB · Carter Runyon TE
Chigozie Anusiem CB · Chris Collier RB
Justin Pickett G

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · LV chance
Our model fair72.0%28.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Seahawks−25772%————
LVLas Vegas Raiders+25728%————
SpreadSEA by 11.1
SEASeattle Seahawks−11.1our margin————
LVLas Vegas Raiders+11.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.6
Over47.6our total————
Under47.6our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 11.1 expected
Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 5%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 5%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 6%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 4%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%
← SEA wins byLV wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more74%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more61%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more54%
Within 3 points either way16%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.6 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.567%
Total over 47.547%
Total over 54.530%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 60% completions, 243 yds/game, 2 TD, 5 INTdepth chart
LVKirk Cousins · last 3 games: 60% completions, 284 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·LV
Oct 25 vs KC
last game
Oct 25 vs LAR
20 days
days of rest
20 days
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Seattle Seahawks
SEACharles Cross OT · ankle sprainOut
SEARashid Shaheed WR · kneeOut
SEATerrion Arnold CB · personalOut
SEAVelus Jones Jr. RB · hamstringOut
SEAUchenna Nwosu LB · ankleDoubtful
SEAAnthony Bradford G · kneeQuestionable
SEABrandon Pili DT · backQuestionable
SEADrew Lock QB · right elbowQuestionable
SEAPatrick O'Connell LB · toeQuestionable
SEABud Clark S · right ankle fracture, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 6 more
Las Vegas Raiders
LVJackson Powers-Johnson G · backQuestionable
LVBrennan Jackson LB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
LVCarter Runyon TE · footIR
LVChigozie Anusiem CB · knee, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
LVChris Collier RB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
LVJustin Pickett G · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
LVKeyron Crawford DE · ankle, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
LVPatrick Johnson DE · neck stinger, back about Nov 29IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
SEA·LV
+0.84
rating (0 = average)
−0.58
24.0
points / game
26.1
17.9
points allowed / game
28.1
4−3
season record
3−4
3−1
home record
1−3
1−2
away record
2−1
W1
streak
L4
7−3
last 10
4−6
343
total yards / game
344
5.4
yards / play
5.4
230
passing yards / game
269
114
rushing yards / game
75
20.7
first downs / game
20.9
1.9
turnovers / game
1.1

Rating Trend

SEA · LV · 32 days
Seattle SeahawksLas Vegas Raiders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · LV 1−0
Nov 27, 2022at SEALV 40 − 34

SEA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Oct 25vs KC20 − 3W
Oct 15at DEN14 − 17L
Oct 11vs SF29 − 32L
Oct 4vs LAC30 − 23W
Sep 27at WSH31 − 33L
Sep 20at ARI31 − 7W
Sep 9vs NE13 − 10W
Feb 8at NE29 − 13W
Jan 25vs LAR31 − 27W
Jan 17vs SF41 − 6W

LV · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Oct 25vs LAR21 − 35L
Oct 18vs BUF30 − 33L
Oct 11at NE17 − 45L
Oct 4vs KC27 − 30L
Sep 27at NO35 − 27W
Sep 20at LAC26 − 14W
Sep 13vs MIA27 − 13W
Jan 4vs KC14 − 12W
Dec 28, 2025vs NYG10 − 34L
Dec 21, 2025at HOU21 − 23L