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Rams at Raiders

NFL · Sunday, Oct 25 · 3:25 PM CT · Allegiant Stadium · Final LAR 35 – LV 21
← NFL / Oct 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAR7210735
LV3301521
Team box
LAR·LV
386
total yards
350
187
passing yards
302
199
rushing yards
48
28
first downs
18
5-10
third downs
3-14
2
turnovers
0
34:14
time of possession
25:46
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Matthew StaffordLAR23/2919531
Kirk CousinsLV26/4429520
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kyren WilliamsLAR16991
Mike Washington Jr.LV6270
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Puka NacuaLAR8681
Tre TuckerLV51031

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LV +25
LAR +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LV 0 · LAR 25lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAR 60%, LV 40% · Updated Oct 25

Expected margin
LAR by 4.5
Expected score
LAR 27.3 – 22.8 LV
Expected total
50.1
RamsThe matchupRaiders
−151Our fair odds+151
27.3Expected points22.8
+0.28Power rating−0.50
22.5Points / game27.0
23.0Allowed / game27.0
401Total yards / game343
5.9Yards / play5.3
289Passing yards / game264
2−4Season record3−3
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAR chance · LV chance
Our model fair60.2%39.8%
Kalshi63.6%40.7%
Polymarket US63.4%40.1%
ProphetX62.6%39.7%
Novig62.5%38.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:25 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 3:23 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 3:23 PM CTNovigpre-game · 3:24 PM CT
Moneyline
LARLos Angeles Rams−15160%−17563.6%−17363.4%−16762.6%−16762.5%
LVLas Vegas Raiders+15140%+14640.7%+14940.1%+15239.7%+16338.0%
SpreadLAR by 4.5
LARLos Angeles Rams−4.5our margin−3.5 +10149.7%−3.5 +10349.2%−3.5 +10748.2%−3.5 +10848.0%
LVLas Vegas Raiders+4.5our margin+3.5 −12154.7%+3.5 −12154.7%+3.5 −11754.0%+3.5 −11152.5%
Totalwe expect 50.1
Over50.1our totalo49.5 −11653.7%o49.5 −11453.2%o49.5 −11052.4%o49.5 −11152.5%
Under50.1our totalu49.5 −10350.7%u49.5 −10350.7%u49.5 +10149.8%u49.5 +10648.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 4.5 expected
Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 5%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 9%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 6%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%
← LAR wins byLV wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more59%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more40%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more32%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

50.1 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 43.565%
Total over 50.546%
Total over 57.530%
Total from 44 to 5735%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 70% completions, 307 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted
LVKirk Cousins · last 3 games: 60% completions, 307 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAR·LV
Oct 18 vs ARI
last game
Oct 18 vs BUF
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 25, 2026, 3:00 PM CT
Los Angeles Rams
LARBill Murray · coach's decisionInactive
LARKeagen Trost · coach's decisionInactive
LARMax Klare · coach's decisionInactive
LARNate Landman · concussionInactive
LARTrent McDuffie · groinInactive
LARTy Simpson · coach's decisionInactive
Las Vegas Raiders
LVAidan O'Connell · coach's decisionInactive
LVBryce Cabeldue · coach's decisionInactive
LVCian Slone · coach's decisionInactive
LVDalton Johnson · coach's decisionInactive
LVJonah Laulu · coach's decisionInactive
LVThomas Booker IV · coach's decisionInactive
LVTristin McCollum · coach's decisionInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
LAR·LV
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
−0.50
22.5
points / game
27.0
23.0
points allowed / game
27.0
2−4
season record
3−3
1−3
home record
1−2
1−1
away record
2−1
L2
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
4−6
401
total yards / game
343
5.9
yards / play
5.3
289
passing yards / game
264
113
rushing yards / game
79
23.7
first downs / game
21.3
1.5
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

LAR · LV · 25 days
Los Angeles RamsLas Vegas Raiders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · LV 0−2
Oct 20, 2024at LARLAR 20 − 15
Dec 8, 2022at LARLAR 17 − 16

LAR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Oct 18vs ARI16 − 18L
Oct 12vs BUF34 − 37L
Oct 4at PHI24 − 20W
Sep 27at DEN26 − 30L
Sep 21vs NYG28 − 6W
Sep 10vs SF7 − 27L
Jan 25at SEA27 − 31L
Jan 18at CHI20 − 17W
Jan 10at CAR34 − 31W
Jan 4vs ARI37 − 20W

LV · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Oct 18vs BUF30 − 33L
Oct 11at NE17 − 45L
Oct 4vs KC27 − 30L
Sep 27at NO35 − 27W
Sep 20at LAC26 − 14W
Sep 13vs MIA27 − 13W
Jan 4vs KC14 − 12W
Dec 28, 2025vs NYG10 − 34L
Dec 21, 2025at HOU21 − 23L
Dec 14, 2025at PHI0 − 31L