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Bills at Raiders

NFL · Sunday, Oct 18 · 3:25 PM CT · Allegiant Stadium · Final BUF 33 – LV 30
← NFL / Oct 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BUF310101033
LV7601730
Team box
BUF·LV
345
total yards
378
242
passing yards
313
103
rushing yards
65
23
first downs
25
4-11
third downs
7-12
0
turnovers
1
31:48
time of possession
28:12
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Josh AllenBUF23/3325520
Kirk CousinsLV23/4131321
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
James Cook IIIBUF22951
Mike Washington Jr.LV9430
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Keon ColemanBUF4591
Tre TuckerLV5972

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LV +10
BUF +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LV 4 · BUF 10lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BUF 69%, LV 31% · Updated Oct 18

Expected margin
BUF by 6.8
Expected score
BUF 30.6 – 23.8 LV
Expected total
54.4
BillsThe matchupRaiders
−222Our fair odds+222
30.6Expected points23.8
+0.76Power rating−0.50
32.8Points / game26.4
28.2Allowed / game25.8
396Total yards / game336
6.8Yards / play5.2
238Passing yards / game254
4−1Season record3−2
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BUF chance · LV chance
Our model fair69.0%31.0%
Kalshi69.5%34.5%
Polymarket US69.3%34.0%
ProphetX68.9%34.1%
Novig68.5%32.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:25 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 3:24 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 3:24 PM CTNovigpre-game · 3:22 PM CT
Moneyline
BUFBuffalo Bills−22269%−22869.5%−22569.3%−22168.9%−21768.5%
LVLas Vegas Raiders+22231%+18934.5%+19434.0%+19334.1%+21232.0%
SpreadBUF by 6.8
BUFBuffalo Bills−6.8our margin−4.5 −11252.7%−4.5 −11252.7%−4.5 −10852.0%−4.5 −10250.5%
LVLas Vegas Raiders+6.8our margin+4.5 −10751.8%+4.5 −10551.2%+4.5 −10350.8%+4.5 +10050.0%
Totalwe expect 54.4
Over54.4our totalo53.5 −11653.7%o53.5 −11453.2%o53.5 −11353.1%o53.5 −11152.5%
Under54.4our totalu53.5 −10350.7%u53.5 −10350.7%u53.5 +10249.6%u53.5 +10648.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 6.8 expected
Buffalo Bills by 40 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 8%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 5%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%
← BUF wins byLV wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more65%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more48%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more39%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

54.4 expected
18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 47.565%
Total over 54.548%
Total over 61.532%
Total from 48 to 6133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 65% completions, 222 yds/game, 2 TD, 4 INTstarted
LVKirk Cousins · last 3 games: 64% completions, 285 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BUF·LV
Oct 12 at LAR
last game
Oct 11 at NE
5 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM CT
Buffalo Bills
BUFAr'maj Reed-Adams · coach's decisionInactive
BUFDJ Moore · shoulder - ac jointInactive
BUFEd Oliver · kneeInactive
BUFJude Bowry · coach's decisionInactive
BUFMike Danna · coach's decisionInactive
Las Vegas Raiders
LVAidan O'Connell · coach's decisionInactive
LVBryce Cabeldue · coach's decisionInactive
LVCian Slone · coach's decisionInactive
LVDalton Johnson · coach's decisionInactive
LVTonka Hemingway · concussionInactive
LVTristin McCollum · coach's decisionInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
BUF·LV
+0.76
rating (0 = average)
−0.50
32.8
points / game
26.4
28.2
points allowed / game
25.8
4−1
season record
3−2
2−1
home record
1−1
2−0
away record
2−1
W1
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
4−6
396
total yards / game
336
6.8
yards / play
5.2
238
passing yards / game
254
158
rushing yards / game
82
24.0
first downs / game
20.6
1.8
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

BUF · LV · 18 days
Buffalo BillsLas Vegas Raiders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · LV 0−1
Sep 17, 2023at BUFBUF 38 − 10

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Oct 12at LAR37 − 34W
Oct 4vs NE26 − 29L
Sep 27vs LAC24 − 16W
Sep 17vs DET41 − 31W
Sep 13at HOU36 − 31W
Jan 17at DEN30 − 33L
Jan 11at JAX27 − 24W
Jan 4vs NYJ35 − 8W
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI12 − 13L
Dec 21, 2025at CLE23 − 20W

LV · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Oct 11at NE17 − 45L
Oct 4vs KC27 − 30L
Sep 27at NO35 − 27W
Sep 20at LAC26 − 14W
Sep 13vs MIA27 − 13W
Jan 4vs KC14 − 12W
Dec 28, 2025vs NYG10 − 34L
Dec 21, 2025at HOU21 − 23L
Dec 14, 2025at PHI0 − 31L
Dec 7, 2025vs DEN17 − 24L