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Pelicans at Grizzlies

NBA · Monday, Nov 2 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 2

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
MEM by 4.2
Expected score
MEM 122.8 – 118.6 NO
Expected total
241.4
PelicansThe matchupGrizzlies
+163Our fair odds−163
118.6Expected points122.8
−0.60Power rating−0.36
119.4Points / game118.2
121.6Allowed / game106.2
49.2FG%45.6
30.03P%40.0
43.0Rebounds / game50.4
1−4Season record5−0
2−8Last 105−5
Yves Missi COut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · MEM chance
Our model fair38.0%62.0%
Kalshi41.7%65.6%
Polymarket US40.7%67.6%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:29 AM CTPolymarket US4:29 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+16338%+14041.7%+14640.7%——
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−16362%−19165.6%−20867.6%——
SpreadMEM by 4.2
NONew Orleans Pelicans+4.2our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−4.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 241.4
Over241.4our total————
Under241.4our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 4.2 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%
← NO wins byMEM wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more52%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more36%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

241.4 expected
191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 231.567%
Total over 241.548%
Total over 251.531%
Total from 232 to 25137%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
New Orleans Pelicans
GJeremiah Fearslast game
FHerbert Joneslast game
FZion Williamsonlast game
FTrey Murphy IIIlast game
FKarlo Matkoviclast game
Memphis Grizzlies
GTy Jeromelast game
FCedric Cowardlast game
FCameron Boozerlast game
FJaylen Wellslast game
CZach Edeylast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·MEM
Oct 29 vs SAC
last game
Oct 29 at POR
3 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
New Orleans Pelicans
NOYves Missi C · left knee bruise, back about Nov 2Out
NODejounte Murray G · personalDay-to-day
NOJordan Poole G · left ankleDay-to-day
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMQuinten Post C · right ankleDay-to-day

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
NO·MEM
−0.60
rating (0 = average)
−0.36
119.4
points / game
118.2
121.6
points allowed / game
106.2
1−4
season record
5−0
1−2
home record
1−0
0−2
away record
4−0
W1
streak
W5
2−8
last 10
5−5
49.2
FG%
45.6
30.0
3P%
40.0
43.0
rebounds / game
50.4
25.2
assists / game
26.4
17.4
turnovers / game
15.8
62.0
points in paint / game
46.0

Rating Trend

NO · MEM · 10 days
New Orleans PelicansMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 7−3
Jan 30at NONO 114 − 106
Jan 23at MEMNO 133 − 127
Nov 26, 2025at NOMEM 133 − 128
Oct 22, 2025at MEMMEM 128 − 122
Mar 9, 2025at NOMEM 107 − 104
Jan 24, 2025at MEMMEM 139 − 126
Dec 27, 2024at NOMEM 132 − 124
Nov 29, 2024at MEMMEM 120 − 109
Feb 12, 2024at MEMNO 96 − 87
Dec 26, 2023at NOMEM 116 − 115

NO · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Oct 29vs SAC132 − 120W
Oct 28vs DEN91 − 104L
Oct 24at DEN135 − 141L
Oct 23at UTAH119 − 120L
Oct 21vs IND120 − 123L
Apr 12at MIN126 − 132L
Apr 10at BOS118 − 144L
Apr 7vs UTAH156 − 137W
Apr 5vs ORL108 − 112L
Apr 3at SAC113 − 117L

MEM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W5
Oct 29at POR124 − 103W
Oct 26at UTAH110 − 105W
Oct 25at SAC123 − 112W
Oct 23at GS111 − 108W
Oct 21vs UTAH123 − 103W
Apr 12at HOU101 − 132L
Apr 10at UTAH101 − 147L
Apr 8at DEN119 − 136L
Apr 6vs CLE126 − 142L
Apr 5at MIL115 − 131L