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Mavericks at Spurs

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 4 · 8:30 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 4

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
SA by 10.2
Expected score
SA 120.1 – 109.8 DAL
Expected total
229.9
MavericksThe matchupSpurs
+312Our fair odds−312
109.8Expected points120.1
−0.34Power rating+1.05
114.0Points / game116.6
112.0Allowed / game110.0
49.2FG%46.2
35.23P%34.6
44.2Rebounds / game45.0
3−2Season record3−2
5−5Last 104−6
Dereck Lively II C · Santi Aldama F
Sergio de Larrea F · Tarik Biberovic FOutJayden Quaintance F · Tobias Harris F

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · SA chance
Our model fair24.3%75.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket US46.7%93.5%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US5:14 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+31224%—+11446.7%——
SASan Antonio Spurs−31276%—−142793.5%——
SpreadSA by 10.2
DALDallas Mavericks+10.2our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−10.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.9
Over229.9our total————
Under229.9our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 10.2 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 52 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 51 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 50 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 49 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 49 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 50 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 51 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 52 points: <1%
← DAL wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more67%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more52%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more37%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.9 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.570%
Total over 229.550%
Total over 239.531%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Dallas Mavericks
GKyrie Irvinglast game
GMax Christielast game
FDaniel Gaffordlast game
FP.J. Washingtonlast game
FCooper Flagglast game
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxlast game
GDevin Vasselllast game
GStephon Castlelast game
GDylan Harperlast game
FVictor Wembanyamalast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·SA
Oct 30 vs HOU
last game
Oct 28 at UTAH
4 days
days of rest
6 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Dallas Mavericks
DALDereck Lively II C · right foot surgeryOut
DALSanti Aldama F · right knee surgeryOut
DALSergio de Larrea F · right knee strainOut
DALTarik Biberovic F · right heel inflammationOut
DALNaji Marshall F · illnessDay-to-day
San Antonio Spurs
SAJayden Quaintance F · right knee surgery, back about Dec 1Out
SATobias Harris F · left calf strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
DAL·SA
−0.34
rating (0 = average)
+1.05
114.0
points / game
116.6
112.0
points allowed / game
110.0
3−2
season record
3−2
1−1
home record
1−2
2−1
away record
2−0
W2
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
4−6
49.2
FG%
46.2
35.2
3P%
34.6
44.2
rebounds / game
45.0
27.6
assists / game
28.2
17.0
turnovers / game
13.2
50.8
points in paint / game
54.8

Rating Trend

DAL · SA · 10 days
Dallas MavericksSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 6−4
Oct 24at DALSA 122 − 106
Apr 10at SASA 139 − 120
Feb 7at SASA 138 − 125
Feb 5at DALSA 135 − 123
Oct 22, 2025at DALSA 125 − 92
Mar 12, 2025at SASA 126 − 116
Mar 10, 2025at SADAL 133 − 129
Nov 16, 2024at DALDAL 110 − 93
Oct 24, 2024at DALDAL 120 − 109
Mar 19, 2024at SADAL 113 − 107

DAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 28vs OKC120 − 96W
Oct 26at MIA113 − 109W
Oct 24vs SA106 − 122L
Oct 23at IND121 − 105W
Oct 21at HOU110 − 128L
Apr 12vs CHI149 − 128W
Apr 10at SA120 − 139L
Apr 8at PHX107 − 112L
Apr 7at LAC103 − 116L
Apr 5vs LAL134 − 128W

SA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Oct 28at UTAH117 − 111W
Oct 27vs SAC130 − 103W
Oct 24at DAL122 − 106W
Oct 23vs HOU110 − 114L
Oct 20vs OKC104 − 116L
Jun 13vs NY90 − 94L
Jun 10at NY106 − 107L
Jun 8at NY115 − 111W
Jun 5vs NY104 − 105L
Jun 3vs NY95 − 105L