bayesRatings

Bengals at Ravens

NFL · Sunday, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT · M&T Bank Stadium · Final CIN 35 – BAL 13
← NFL / Oct 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CIN00142135
BAL760013
Team box
CIN·BAL
357
total yards
359
284
passing yards
276
73
rushing yards
83
21
first downs
17
6-11
third downs
9-16
0
turnovers
1
25:00
time of possession
35:00
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Joe BurrowCIN22/3029240
Tyler HuntleyBAL23/3429811
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Chase BrownCIN11390
Derrick HenryBAL17450
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tee HigginsCIN61481
Zay FlowersBAL81371

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +22
CIN +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BAL 13 · CIN 22lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 57%, BAL 43% · Updated Oct 25

Expected margin
CIN by 2.7
Expected score
CIN 25.2 – 22.5 BAL
Expected total
47.8
BengalsThe matchupRavens
−134Our fair odds+134
25.2Expected points22.5
+0.02Power rating+0.22
25.6Points / game26.0
21.8Allowed / game22.0
343Total yards / game368
5.5Yards / play6.0
260Passing yards / game216
3−2Season record4−2
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · BAL chance
Our model fair57.3%42.7%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket US61.7%41.9%
ProphetX61.4%41.2%
Novig61.0%39.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 11:59 AM CTProphetXpre-game · 11:59 AM CTNovigpre-game · 11:58 AM CT
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Bengals−13457%−16862.7%−16161.7%−15961.4%−15661.0%
BALBaltimore Ravens+13443%+14041.7%+13941.9%+14341.2%+15339.5%
SpreadCIN by 2.7
CINCincinnati Bengals−2.7our margin−2.5 −13156.7%−2.5 −13156.7%−2.5 −13056.4%−2.5 −12555.5%
BALBaltimore Ravens+2.7our margin+2.5 +10947.7%+2.5 +11247.2%+2.5 +11446.7%+2.5 +12245.0%
Totalwe expect 47.8
Over47.8our totalo47.5 +10947.7%o47.5 +11247.2%o47.5 +10748.2%o47.5 +11746.0%
Under47.8our totalu47.5 −13156.7%u47.5 −13156.7%u47.5 −12856.1%u47.5 −12255.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Bengals by 2.7 expected
Cincinnati Bengals by 39 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 5%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 9%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 7%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 39 points: <1%
← CIN wins byBAL wins by →
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 3 or more54%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 7 or more35%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 10 or more27%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.8 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.568%
Total over 47.548%
Total over 54.531%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CINJoe Burrow · last 3 games: 73% completions, 300 yds/game, 8 TD, 2 INTstarted
BALTyler Huntley · last 3 games: 71% completions, 143 yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·BAL
Oct 11 at MIA
last game
Oct 18 at CLE
13 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Weather

forecast for kickoff · NWS
temp64°F · sunny
wind2 mph SE
rain0% chance

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 25, 2026, 11:30 AM CT
Cincinnati Bengals
CINConnor Lew · coach's decisionInactive
CINLandon Robinson · coach's decisionInactive
CINMyles Hinton · coach's decisionInactive
CINRuss Yeast · coach's decisionInactive
CINShemar Stewart · coach's decisionInactive
Baltimore Ravens
BALAndrew Vorhees · coach's decisionInactive
BALBroderick Washington Jr. · ankleInactive
BALElijah Sarratt · coach's decisionInactive
BALJaylinn Hawkins · kneeInactive
BALLamar Jackson · ankleInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
CIN·BAL
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
25.6
points / game
26.0
21.8
points allowed / game
22.0
3−2
season record
4−2
1−1
home record
1−1
2−1
away record
3−1
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
343
total yards / game
368
5.5
yards / play
6.0
260
passing yards / game
216
83
rushing yards / game
152
21.0
first downs / game
20.2
1.2
turnovers / game
0.7

Rating Trend

CIN · BAL · 25 days
Cincinnati BengalsBaltimore Ravens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 6−4
Dec 14, 2025at CINBAL 24 − 0
Nov 27, 2025at BALCIN 32 − 14
Nov 7, 2024at BALBAL 35 − 34
Oct 6, 2024at CINBAL 41 − 38
Nov 16, 2023at BALBAL 34 − 20
Sep 17, 2023at CINBAL 27 − 24
Jan 15, 2023at CINCIN 24 − 17post
Jan 8, 2023at CINCIN 27 − 16
Oct 9, 2022at BALBAL 19 − 17
Dec 26, 2021at CINCIN 41 − 21

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 11at MIA31 − 24W
Oct 4vs JAX17 − 22L
Sep 27at PIT27 − 30L
Sep 20at HOU20 − 6W
Sep 13vs TB33 − 27W
Jan 4vs CLE18 − 20L
Dec 28, 2025vs ARI37 − 14W
Dec 21, 2025at MIA45 − 21W
Dec 14, 2025vs BAL0 − 24L
Dec 7, 2025at BUF34 − 39L

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 18at CLE10 − 13L
Oct 11at ATL30 − 23W
Oct 4vs TEN24 − 18W
Sep 27at DAL34 − 31W
Sep 20vs NO17 − 24L
Sep 13at IND41 − 23W
Jan 4at PIT24 − 26L
Dec 27, 2025at GB41 − 24W
Dec 21, 2025vs NE24 − 28L
Dec 14, 2025at CIN24 − 0W