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Colts at Jaguars

NFL · Sunday, Nov 1 · 12:00 PM CT · EverBank Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 1

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
JAX by 10.9
Expected score
JAX 29.0 – 18.0 IND
Expected total
47.0
ColtsThe matchupJaguars
+412Our fair odds−412
18.0Expected points29.0
−0.28Power rating+0.58
22.0Points / game25.7
25.7Allowed / game17.3
298Total yards / game348
4.5Yards / play5.8
180Passing yards / game235
2−5Season record4−2
2−8Last 107−3
Anthony Gould WR · Justin Walley CB
Alec Pierce WR · Arden Key DE
Cam Taylor-Britt CBOut (5 each)Antonio Johnson S · Anton Harrison OT
B.J. Green II DE · Caleb Ransaw S
Garrett DiGiorgio OT

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · JAX chance
Our model fair19.5%80.5%
Kalshi21.1%82.1%
Polymarket US20.6%81.8%
ProphetX21.0%81.5%
Novig19.5%81.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:20 AM CTPolymarket US4:20 AM CTProphetX4:02 AM CTNovig4:03 AM CT
Moneyline
INDIndianapolis Colts+41220%+37321.1%+38620.6%+37521.0%+41319.5%
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−41280%−45882.1%−45081.8%−44181.5%−42681.0%
SpreadJAX by 10.9
INDIndianapolis Colts+10.9our margin+9.5 −10350.7%+9.5 +10149.7%+9.5 +10548.9%+9.5 +11147.5%
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−10.9our margin−9.5 −11653.7%−9.5 −11854.2%−9.5 −11754.0%−9.5 −11353.0%
Totalwe expect 47.0
Over47.0our totalo46.5 −10751.8%o46.5 −10350.7%o46.5 −10250.5%o46.5 +10249.5%
Under47.0our totalu46.5 −11252.7%u46.5 −11453.2%u46.5 −10952.2%u46.5 −10651.5%

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Jacksonville Jaguars by 10.9 expected
Indianapolis Colts by 48 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 47 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 46 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 45 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 44 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 43 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 42 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 41 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 40 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 39 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 5%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 6%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 39 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 40 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 41 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 42 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 43 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 44 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 45 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 46 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 47 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 48 points: <1%
← IND wins byJAX wins by →
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 3 or more72%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 7 or more58%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 10 or more49%
Within 3 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.0 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.569%
Total over 46.549%
Total over 53.531%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 55% completions, 215 yds/game, 1 TD, 3 INTdepth chart
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 64% completions, 288 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·JAX
Oct 25 at MIN
last game
Oct 18 vs HOU
6 days
days of rest
13 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Indianapolis Colts
INDAnthony Gould WR · concussion, back about Nov 8Out
INDJustin Walley CB · knee, back about Nov 8Out
INDBryce Boettcher LB · groin, back about Nov 1Questionable
INDDrew Ogletree TE · knee, back about Nov 1Questionable
INDSean McKeon TE · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027Questionable
INDAlec Pierce WR · left heel, back about Nov 8IR
INDArden Key DE · hamstring, back about Nov 8IR
INDCam Taylor-Britt CB · groin, back about Nov 29IR
INDCameron Mitchell CB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
INDCarson Towt TE · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 2 more
Jacksonville Jaguars
JAXAntonio Johnson S · ankle, back about Nov 5Out
JAXDevon Marshall CBQuestionable
JAXJakobi Meyers WR · hamstring, back about Nov 1Questionable
JAXAnton Harrison OT · right knee surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
JAXB.J. Green II DE · elbow, back about Nov 1IR
JAXCaleb Ransaw S · knee, back about Nov 15IR
JAXGarrett DiGiorgio OT · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
JAXJared Bartlett LB · leg, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
JAXParker Hughes LB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
JAXPatrick Mekari G · back surgery, back about Nov 1IR
and 2 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
IND·JAX
−0.28
rating (0 = average)
+0.58
22.0
points / game
25.7
25.7
points allowed / game
17.3
2−5
season record
4−2
1−2
home record
3−1
1−3
away record
1−1
L3
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
7−3
298
total yards / game
348
4.5
yards / play
5.8
180
passing yards / game
235
118
rushing yards / game
113
19.3
first downs / game
21.3
1.7
turnovers / game
0.7

Rating Trend

IND · JAX · 30 days
Indianapolis ColtsJacksonville Jaguars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · JAX 7−3
Dec 28, 2025at INDJAX 23 − 17
Dec 7, 2025at JAXJAX 36 − 19
Jan 5, 2025at INDIND 26 − 23
Oct 6, 2024at JAXJAX 37 − 34
Oct 15, 2023at JAXJAX 37 − 20
Sep 10, 2023at INDJAX 31 − 21
Oct 16, 2022at INDIND 34 − 27
Sep 18, 2022at JAXJAX 24 − 0
Jan 9, 2022at JAXJAX 26 − 11
Nov 14, 2021at INDIND 23 − 17

IND · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Oct 25at MIN10 − 16L
Oct 18vs TEN20 − 26L
Oct 11at PIT22 − 34L
Oct 4at WSH30 − 13W
Sep 27vs HOU19 − 17W
Sep 20at KC30 − 33L
Sep 13vs BAL23 − 41L
Jan 4at HOU30 − 38L
Dec 28, 2025vs JAX17 − 23L
Dec 22, 2025vs SF27 − 48L

JAX · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Oct 18vs HOU31 − 34L
Oct 11vs PHI19 − 17W
Oct 4at CIN22 − 17W
Sep 27vs NE35 − 6W
Sep 20at DEN13 − 20L
Sep 13vs CLE34 − 10W
Jan 11vs BUF24 − 27L
Jan 4vs TEN41 − 7W
Dec 28, 2025at IND23 − 17W
Dec 21, 2025at DEN34 − 20W