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Raiders at Jets

NFL · Sunday, Nov 1 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 1

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
NYJ by 1.2
Expected score
NYJ 23.7 – 22.6 LV
Expected total
46.3
RaidersThe matchupJets
+111Our fair odds−111
22.6Expected points23.7
−0.58Power rating−0.72
26.1Points / game19.6
28.1Allowed / game21.4
344Total yards / game303
5.4Yards / play5.3
269Passing yards / game207
3−4Season record2−5
4−6Last 102−8
Patrick Johnson DE · Brennan Jackson LB
Carter Runyon TE · Chigozie Anusiem CB
Chris Collier RBOut (5 each)Joseph Ossai DE · Max Mitchell OT
T'Vondre Sweat DT · Tyler Baron DE
Anez Cooper G

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LV chance · NYJ chance
Our model fair47.3%52.7%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket US48.5%55.2%
ProphetX47.2%55.5%
Novig46.5%54.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:21 AM CTPolymarket US4:21 AM CTProphetX4:17 AM CTNovig4:11 AM CT
Moneyline
LVLas Vegas Raiders+11147%+10548.7%+10648.5%+11247.2%+11546.5%
NYJNew York Jets−11153%−12655.7%−12355.2%−12555.5%−12054.5%
SpreadNYJ by 1.2
LVLas Vegas Raiders+1.2our margin+1.5 −11252.7%+1.5 −10751.7%+1.5 −10250.5%+1.5 +10249.5%
NYJNew York Jets−1.2our margin−1.5 −10751.8%−1.5 −10952.2%−1.5 −10852.0%−1.5 −10451.0%
Totalwe expect 46.3
Over46.3our totalo45.5 −11252.7%o45.5 −11252.7%o45.5 −10952.2%o45.5 −10651.5%
Under46.3our totalu45.5 −10751.8%u45.5 −10551.2%u45.5 −10250.5%u45.5 +10249.5%

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Jets by 1.2 expected
Las Vegas Raiders by 41 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 5%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 9%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New York Jets by 1 point: 2%New York Jets by 2 points: 3%New York Jets by 3 points: 7%New York Jets by 4 points: 2%New York Jets by 5 points: 2%New York Jets by 6 points: 4%New York Jets by 7 points: 4%New York Jets by 8 points: 3%New York Jets by 9 points: 1%New York Jets by 10 points: 2%New York Jets by 11 points: 1%New York Jets by 12 points: 1%New York Jets by 13 points: 1%New York Jets by 14 points: 2%New York Jets by 15 points: 1%New York Jets by 16 points: 1%New York Jets by 17 points: 2%New York Jets by 18 points: 1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 20 points: 1%New York Jets by 21 points: 1%New York Jets by 22 points: 1%New York Jets by 23 points: 1%New York Jets by 24 points: 1%New York Jets by 25 points: 1%New York Jets by 26 points: 1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: 1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: 1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%New York Jets by 41 points: <1%
← LV wins byNYJ wins by →
New York Jets wins by 3 or more46%
New York Jets wins by 7 or more30%
New York Jets wins by 10 or more23%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.3 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.567%
Total over 46.547%
Total over 53.529%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
LVKirk Cousins · last 3 games: 60% completions, 284 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTdepth chart
NYJGeno Smith · last 3 games: 67% completions, 240 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LV·NYJ
Oct 25 vs LAR
last game
Oct 25 vs MIA
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Las Vegas Raiders
LVPatrick Johnson DE · neck stinger, back about Nov 8Out
LVJackson Powers-Johnson G · back, back about Nov 1Questionable
LVBrennan Jackson LB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
LVCarter Runyon TE · foot, back about Nov 1IR
LVChigozie Anusiem CB · knee, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
LVChris Collier RB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
LVJack Bech WR · right forearm fracture, back about Nov 1IR
LVJustin Pickett G · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
LVKeyron Crawford DE · ankle, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
New York Jets
NYJJoseph Ossai DE · ankle, back about Nov 8Out
NYJMax Mitchell OT · concussion, back about Nov 8Out
NYJT'Vondre Sweat DT · knee, back about Nov 8Out
NYJTyler Baron DE · kneeOut
NYJDavid Bailey LB · groin, back about Nov 1Doubtful
NYJBreece Hall RB · right quadriceps, back about Nov 1Questionable
NYJCaullin Lacy WRQuestionable
NYJDylan Parham G · knee, back about Nov 1Questionable
NYJAnez Cooper G · shoulderIR
NYJArian Smith WR · knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 8 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
LV·NYJ
−0.58
rating (0 = average)
−0.72
26.1
points / game
19.6
28.1
points allowed / game
21.4
3−4
season record
2−5
1−3
home record
1−2
2−1
away record
1−3
L4
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
2−8
344
total yards / game
303
5.4
yards / play
5.3
269
passing yards / game
207
75
rushing yards / game
96
20.9
first downs / game
17.6
1.1
turnovers / game
0.7

Rating Trend

LV · NYJ · 30 days
Las Vegas RaidersNew York Jets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · NYJ 0−1
Nov 12, 2023at LVLV 16 − 12

LV · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Oct 25vs LAR21 − 35L
Oct 18vs BUF30 − 33L
Oct 11at NE17 − 45L
Oct 4vs KC27 − 30L
Sep 27at NO35 − 27W
Sep 20at LAC26 − 14W
Sep 13vs MIA27 − 13W
Jan 4vs KC14 − 12W
Dec 28, 2025vs NYG10 − 34L
Dec 21, 2025at HOU21 − 23L

NYJ · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Oct 25vs MIA25 − 28L
Oct 18at NE19 − 26L
Oct 11vs CLE17 − 12W
Oct 4at CHI12 − 23L
Sep 27at DET24 − 31L
Sep 20vs GB17 − 20L
Sep 13at TEN23 − 10W
Jan 4at BUF8 − 35L
Dec 28, 2025vs NE10 − 42L
Dec 21, 2025at NO6 − 29L