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Dolphins at Jets

NFL · Sunday, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final MIA 28 – NYJ 25
← NFL / Oct 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA1470728
NYJ7071125
Team box
MIA·NYJ
360
total yards
377
204
passing yards
269
156
rushing yards
108
24
first downs
19
5-12
third downs
7-13
0
turnovers
1
34:36
time of possession
25:24
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Malik WillisMIA14/2120820
Geno SmithNYJ23/3028731
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Ollie Gordon IIMIA251031
Braelon AllenNYJ171040
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Greg DulcichMIA5860
Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ51151

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYJ +14
MIA +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYJ 0 · MIA 14lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 36%, NYJ 64% · Updated Oct 25

Expected margin
NYJ by 3.4
Expected score
NYJ 21.3 – 18.0 MIA
Expected total
39.3
DolphinsThe matchupJets
+181Our fair odds−181
18.0Expected points21.3
−0.70Power rating−0.62
14.0Points / game18.7
26.4Allowed / game20.3
280Total yards / game291
5.2Yards / play5.0
154Passing yards / game196
0−5Season record2−4
2−8Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · NYJ chance
Our model fair35.6%64.4%
Kalshi37.6%66.6%
Polymarket US37.1%66.3%
ProphetX36.5%65.7%
Novig36.0%64.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 11:59 AM CTProphetXpre-game · 11:58 AM CTNovigpre-game · 11:58 AM CT
Moneyline
MIAMiami Dolphins+18136%+16637.6%+17037.1%+17436.5%+17836.0%
NYJNew York Jets−18164%−19966.6%−19766.3%−19265.7%−18264.5%
SpreadNYJ by 3.4
MIAMiami Dolphins+3.4our margin+3.5 −11252.7%+3.5 −10952.2%+3.5 −10551.2%+3.5 −10250.5%
NYJNew York Jets−3.4our margin−3.5 −10751.8%−3.5 −10751.7%−3.5 −10451.0%−3.5 −10451.0%
Totalwe expect 39.3
Over39.3our totalo39.5 −10751.8%o39.5 −10751.7%o39.5 −10852.0%o39.5 +10050.0%
Under39.3our totalu39.5 −11252.7%u39.5 −10952.2%u39.5 −10350.8%u39.5 −10250.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Jets by 3.4 expected
Miami Dolphins by 43 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 42 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 41 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 40 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 39 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 8%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New York Jets by 1 point: 2%New York Jets by 2 points: 3%New York Jets by 3 points: 7%New York Jets by 4 points: 2%New York Jets by 5 points: 2%New York Jets by 6 points: 4%New York Jets by 7 points: 4%New York Jets by 8 points: 3%New York Jets by 9 points: 1%New York Jets by 10 points: 2%New York Jets by 11 points: 1%New York Jets by 12 points: 2%New York Jets by 13 points: 2%New York Jets by 14 points: 2%New York Jets by 15 points: 1%New York Jets by 16 points: 1%New York Jets by 17 points: 3%New York Jets by 18 points: 1%New York Jets by 19 points: 1%New York Jets by 20 points: 1%New York Jets by 21 points: 1%New York Jets by 22 points: 1%New York Jets by 23 points: 1%New York Jets by 24 points: 2%New York Jets by 25 points: 1%New York Jets by 26 points: 1%New York Jets by 27 points: 1%New York Jets by 28 points: 1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: 1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: 1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%New York Jets by 41 points: <1%New York Jets by 42 points: <1%New York Jets by 43 points: <1%
← MIA wins byNYJ wins by →
New York Jets wins by 3 or more53%
New York Jets wins by 7 or more37%
New York Jets wins by 10 or more28%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.3 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.569%
Total over 39.548%
Total over 46.528%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MIAMalik Willis · last 3 games: 55% completions, 144 yds/game, 1 TD, 3 INTstarted
NYJGeno Smith · last 3 games: 60% completions, 184 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·NYJ
Oct 11 vs CIN
last game
Oct 18 at NE
13 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Weather

forecast for kickoff · NWS
temp65°F · sunny
wind2 mph W
rain0% chance

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 25, 2026, 11:30 AM CT
Miami Dolphins
MIAChukwuebuka Godrick · coach's decisionInactive
MIADJ Campbell · coach's decisionInactive
MIAJalen Tolbert · coach's decisionInactive
MIAMarcellas Dial Jr. · coach's decisionInactive
MIAReese Taylor · quadricepsInactive
MIARobert Beal Jr. · hamstringInactive
MIAWillie Gay Jr. · illnessInactive
New York Jets
NYJBreece Hall · quadricepsInactive
NYJDylan Parham · kneeInactive
NYJJack Heflin · coach's decisionInactive
NYJJarvis Brownlee Jr. · coach's decisionInactive
NYJJoseph Ossai · ankleInactive
NYJKene Nwangwu · kneeInactive
NYJMax Mitchell · concussionInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
MIA·NYJ
−0.70
rating (0 = average)
−0.62
14.0
points / game
18.7
26.4
points allowed / game
20.3
0−5
season record
2−4
0−2
home record
1−1
0−3
away record
1−3
L5
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
2−8
280
total yards / game
291
5.2
yards / play
5.0
154
passing yards / game
196
127
rushing yards / game
94
15.2
first downs / game
17.3
1.6
turnovers / game
0.7

Rating Trend

MIA · NYJ · 25 days
Miami DolphinsNew York Jets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYJ 2−8
Dec 7, 2025at NYJMIA 34 − 10
Sep 29, 2025at MIAMIA 27 − 21
Jan 5, 2025at NYJNYJ 32 − 20
Dec 8, 2024at MIAMIA 32 − 26
Dec 17, 2023at MIAMIA 30 − 0
Nov 24, 2023at NYJMIA 34 − 13
Jan 8, 2023at MIAMIA 11 − 6
Oct 9, 2022at NYJNYJ 40 − 17
Dec 19, 2021at MIAMIA 31 − 24
Nov 21, 2021at NYJMIA 24 − 17

MIA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Oct 11vs CIN24 − 31L
Oct 4at MIN10 − 15L
Sep 27vs KC10 − 24L
Sep 20at SF13 − 35L
Sep 13at LV13 − 27L
Jan 4at NE10 − 38L
Dec 28, 2025vs TB20 − 17W
Dec 21, 2025vs CIN21 − 45L
Dec 15, 2025at PIT15 − 28L
Dec 7, 2025at NYJ34 − 10W

NYJ · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Oct 18at NE19 − 26L
Oct 11vs CLE17 − 12W
Oct 4at CHI12 − 23L
Sep 27at DET24 − 31L
Sep 20vs GB17 − 20L
Sep 13at TEN23 − 10W
Jan 4at BUF8 − 35L
Dec 28, 2025vs NE10 − 42L
Dec 21, 2025at NO6 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at JAX20 − 48L