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Chargers at Rams

NFL · Sunday, Nov 1 · 3:05 PM CT · SoFi Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 1

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
LAR by 8.4
Expected score
LAR 26.4 – 18.0 LAC
Expected total
44.4
ChargersThe matchupRams
+295Our fair odds−295
18.0Expected points26.4
−0.41Power rating+0.34
15.0Points / game24.3
25.2Allowed / game22.7
287Total yards / game399
4.7Yards / play5.9
168Passing yards / game274
0−6Season record3−4
1−9Last 105−5
Brenen Thompson WR · Deane Leonard CB
Derwin James Jr. S · Isaiah World OT
Kayode Awosika GOut (5 each)Blake Grupe PK · Daniel Rickert DE
Davante Adams WR · Eddie Walls III LB
Justin Dedich G

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · LAR chance
Our model fair25.3%74.7%
Kalshi28.4%74.4%
Polymarket US28.1%74.9%
ProphetX29.2%73.5%
Novig27.5%73.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:21 AM CTPolymarket US4:21 AM CTProphetX4:17 AM CTNovig4:11 AM CT
Moneyline
LACLos Angeles Chargers+29525%+25228.4%+25628.1%+24229.2%+26427.5%
LARLos Angeles Rams−29575%−29074.4%−29874.9%−27873.5%−27073.0%
SpreadLAR by 8.4
LACLos Angeles Chargers+8.4our margin+6.5 −11252.7%+6.5 −11252.7%+6.5 −10852.0%+6.5 −10451.0%
LARLos Angeles Rams−8.4our margin−6.5 −10751.8%−6.5 −10551.2%−6.5 −10451.0%−6.5 +10050.0%
Totalwe expect 44.4
Over44.4our totalo45.5 −10751.8%o45.5 −10551.2%o45.5 −10350.8%o45.5 +10050.0%
Under44.4our totalu45.5 −11252.7%u45.5 −11252.7%u45.5 −10852.0%u45.5 −10451.0%

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 8.4 expected
Los Angeles Chargers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 6%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 47 points: <1%
← LAC wins byLAR wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more66%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more51%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more43%
Within 3 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.4 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.567%
Total over 44.547%
Total over 51.529%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 60% completions, 171 yds/game, 2 TD, 4 INTdepth chart
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 76% completions, 267 yds/game, 8 TD, 1 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·LAR
Oct 18 at KC
last game
Oct 25 at LV
13 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Los Angeles Chargers
LACBrenen Thompson WR · quadriceps, back about Nov 8Out
LACDeane Leonard CB · concussion, back about Nov 8Out
LACDerwin James Jr. S · hamstring, back about Nov 8Out
LACIsaiah World OT · left knee, back about Nov 1Out
LACKayode Awosika G · lower leg, back about Nov 8Out
LACDonte Jackson CB · hamstring, back about Nov 1Questionable
LACRodney Shelley CB · hamstring, back about Nov 1Questionable
LACAlec Ingold FB · shoulder, back about Nov 22IR
LACDavid Njoku TE · lower leg, back about Nov 1IR
LACDenzel Perryman LB · undisclosed, back about Nov 8IR
and 5 more
Los Angeles Rams
LARJoe Cardona LS · ankle, back about Nov 1Doubtful
LARColby Parkinson TE · ribs, back about Nov 1Questionable
LARColeman Shelton C · hip, back about Nov 1Questionable
LARJordan Whittington WR · back, back about Nov 1Questionable
LARKeir Thomas II LB · groinQuestionable
LARTrent McDuffie CB · groin, back about Nov 1Questionable
LARZech McPhearson CBQuestionable
LARBlake Grupe PK · knee - acl, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
LARDaniel Rickert DE · knee, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
LARDavante Adams WR · left hamstring surgery, back about Nov 25IR
and 8 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
LAC·LAR
−0.41
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
15.0
points / game
24.3
25.2
points allowed / game
22.7
0−6
season record
3−4
0−3
home record
1−3
0−3
away record
2−1
L6
streak
W1
1−9
last 10
5−5
287
total yards / game
399
4.7
yards / play
5.9
168
passing yards / game
274
119
rushing yards / game
125
17.2
first downs / game
24.3
2.5
turnovers / game
1.6

Rating Trend

LAC · LAR · 30 days
Los Angeles ChargersLos Angeles Rams
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · LAR 0−1
Jan 1, 2023at LACLAC 31 − 10

LAC · Last 10

1−9 · streak L9
Oct 18at KC6 − 22L
Oct 11vs DEN17 − 23L
Oct 4at SEA23 − 30L
Sep 27at BUF16 − 24L
Sep 20vs LV14 − 26L
Sep 13vs ARI14 − 26L
Jan 11at NE3 − 16L
Jan 4at DEN3 − 19L
Dec 27, 2025vs HOU16 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at DAL34 − 17W

LAR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 25at LV35 − 21W
Oct 18vs ARI16 − 18L
Oct 12vs BUF34 − 37L
Oct 4at PHI24 − 20W
Sep 27at DEN26 − 30L
Sep 21vs NYG28 − 6W
Sep 10vs SF7 − 27L
Jan 25at SEA27 − 31L
Jan 18at CHI20 − 17W
Jan 10at CAR34 − 31W