bayesRatings

Vikings at Lions

NFL · Sunday, Nov 1 · 12:00 PM CT · Ford Field · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 1

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
DET by 1.6
Expected score
DET 23.6 – 22.0 MIN
Expected total
45.7
VikingsThe matchupLions
+132Our fair odds−132
22.0Expected points23.6
+0.67Power rating+0.36
20.8Points / game30.7
12.3Allowed / game27.5
282Total yards / game397
4.6Yards / play6.0
162Passing yards / game282
6−0Season record4−2
10−0Last 105−5
Donovan Jackson G · Jamal Adams LB
Josh Oliver TE · Nick Samac C
Tyler Batty LBOut (5 each)Giovanni Manu OT · Kerby Joseph S
Avonte Maddox CB · Ben Bartch G
Damone Clark LB

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · DET chance
Our model fair43.0%57.0%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket US39.1%64.4%
ProphetX38.8%64.0%
Novig37.5%63.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:20 AM CTPolymarket US4:20 AM CTProphetX4:17 AM CTNovig4:10 AM CT
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Vikings+13243%+15239.6%+15639.1%+15738.8%+16737.5%
DETDetroit Lions−13257%−18364.6%−18164.4%−17864.0%−17063.0%
SpreadDET by 1.6
MINMinnesota Vikings+1.6our margin+3.5 −12154.7%+3.5 −12154.7%+3.5 −11553.6%+3.5 −11152.5%
DETDetroit Lions−1.6our margin−3.5 +10149.7%−3.5 +10349.2%−3.5 +10449.1%−3.5 +10648.5%
Totalwe expect 45.7
Over45.7our totalo45.5 −11252.7%o45.5 −11252.7%o45.5 −10751.7%o45.5 −10451.0%
Under45.7our totalu45.5 −10751.8%u45.5 −10551.2%u45.5 −10250.5%u45.5 +10249.5%

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Lions by 1.6 expected
Minnesota Vikings by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 8%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 2%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 7%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 19 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 25 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 26 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 27 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 29 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 32 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 40 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 41 points: <1%
← MIN wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Lions wins by 3 or more47%
Detroit Lions wins by 7 or more31%
Detroit Lions wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.7 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.530%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
MINKyler Murray · last 3 games: 71% completions, 209 yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INTdepth chart
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 64% completions, 329 yds/game, 6 TD, 0 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·DET
Oct 25 vs IND
last game
Oct 25 vs GB
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Minnesota Vikings
MINJay Ward S · knee, back about Nov 1Questionable
MINDonovan Jackson G · knee - meniscus surgery, back about Jan 17, 2027IR
MINJamal Adams LB · right quadriceps, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
MINJosh Oliver TE · biceps surgery, back about Jan 17, 2027IR
MINNick Samac C · knee, back about Nov 1IR
MINTyler Batty LB · knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
Detroit Lions
DETGiovanni Manu OT · kneeOut
DETKerby Joseph S · knee, back about Nov 1Out
DETRoger McCreary CB · foot, back about Nov 1Questionable
DETAvonte Maddox CB · left foot surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
DETBen Bartch G · foot, back about Nov 22IR
DETDamone Clark LB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
DETDevin White LB · forearm surgery, back about Nov 22IR
DETIsiah Pacheco RB · back, back about Dec 28IR
DETKendrick Law WR · knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
DETPayton Turner DE · back, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 2 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
MIN·DET
+0.67
rating (0 = average)
+0.36
20.8
points / game
30.7
12.3
points allowed / game
27.5
6−0
season record
4−2
3−0
home record
3−0
3−0
away record
1−2
W6
streak
W2
10−0
last 10
5−5
282
total yards / game
397
4.6
yards / play
6.0
162
passing yards / game
282
119
rushing yards / game
115
15.7
first downs / game
24.7
0.7
turnovers / game
0.5

Rating Trend

MIN · DET · 30 days
Minnesota VikingsDetroit Lions
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 6−4
Dec 25, 2025at MINMIN 23 − 10
Nov 2, 2025at DETMIN 27 − 24
Jan 5, 2025at DETDET 31 − 9
Oct 20, 2024at MINDET 31 − 29
Jan 7, 2024at DETDET 30 − 20
Dec 24, 2023at MINDET 30 − 24
Dec 11, 2022at DETDET 34 − 23
Sep 25, 2022at MINMIN 28 − 24
Dec 5, 2021at DETDET 29 − 27
Oct 10, 2021at MINMIN 19 − 17

MIN · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Oct 25vs IND16 − 10W
Oct 11at NO23 − 13W
Oct 4vs MIA15 − 10W
Sep 27at TB23 − 16W
Sep 20at CHI9 − 3W
Sep 13vs GB39 − 22W
Jan 4vs GB16 − 3W
Dec 25, 2025vs DET23 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025at NYG16 − 13W
Dec 14, 2025at DAL34 − 26W

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 25vs GB20 − 17W
Oct 11at ARI45 − 21W
Oct 4at CAR26 − 32L
Sep 27vs NYJ31 − 24W
Sep 17at BUF31 − 41L
Sep 13vs NO31 − 30W
Jan 4at CHI19 − 16W
Dec 25, 2025at MIN10 − 23L
Dec 21, 2025vs PIT24 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at LAR34 − 41L