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Jaguars at Ravens

NFL · Thursday, Nov 5 · 7:15 PM CT · M&T Bank Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 5

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
BAL by 2.2
Expected score
BAL 25.5 – 23.3 JAX
Expected total
48.9
JaguarsThe matchupRavens
+117Our fair odds−117
23.3Expected points25.5
+0.58Power rating+0.08
25.7Points / game24.1
17.3Allowed / game23.9
348Total yards / game366
5.8Yards / play5.9
235Passing yards / game225
4−2Season record4−3
7−3Last 105−5
Antonio Johnson S · Anton Harrison OT
B.J. Green II DE · Caleb Ransaw S
Garrett DiGiorgio OTOut (5 each)Jaylinn Hawkins S · Olaivavega Ioane G
Adam Randall RB · Bilhal Kone CB
Danny Pinter C

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
JAX chance · BAL chance
Our model fair46.0%54.0%
Kalshi43.7%58.7%
Polymarket US44.2%59.7%
ProphetX44.8%59.2%
Novig43.5%58.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi5:12 AM CTPolymarket US5:13 AM CTProphetX4:49 AM CTNovig5:00 AM CT
Moneyline
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+11746%+12943.7%+12644.2%+12344.8%+13043.5%
BALBaltimore Ravens−11754%−14258.7%−14859.7%−14559.2%−13858.0%
SpreadBAL by 2.2
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+2.2our margin+1.5 −11252.7%+1.5 +10149.7%+3 −13056.4%—
BALBaltimore Ravens−2.2our margin−1.5 −16161.7%−1.5 −16862.7%−3 −11553.6%—
Totalwe expect 48.9
Over48.9our totalo48.5 −11653.7%o48.5 −11453.2%o48.5 −13256.8%o48.5 −10451.0%
Under48.9our totalu48.5 −10751.8%u48.5 −10551.2%u48.5 −11653.8%u48.5 −10852.0%

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Ravens by 2.2 expected
Jacksonville Jaguars by 42 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 41 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 40 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 39 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 8%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 7%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 39 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 40 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 41 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 42 points: <1%
← JAX wins byBAL wins by →
Baltimore Ravens wins by 3 or more49%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 7 or more33%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.9 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.567%
Total over 48.548%
Total over 55.531%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 64% completions, 288 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTdepth chart
BALLamar Jackson · last 3 games: 72% completions, 214 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
JAX·BAL
Oct 18 vs HOU
last game
Oct 25 vs CIN
17 days
days of rest
10 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Jacksonville Jaguars
JAXAntonio Johnson S · ankle, back about Nov 5Out
JAXDevon Marshall CBQuestionable
JAXJakobi Meyers WR · hamstringQuestionable
JAXAnton Harrison OT · right knee surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
JAXB.J. Green II DE · elbowIR
JAXCaleb Ransaw S · knee, back about Nov 15IR
JAXGarrett DiGiorgio OT · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
JAXJared Bartlett LB · leg, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
JAXParker Hughes LB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
JAXPatrick Mekari G · back surgeryIR
and 2 more
Baltimore Ravens
BALJaylinn Hawkins S · knee, back about Nov 5Out
BALOlaivavega Ioane G · right knee - mcl sprain, back about Nov 5Out
BALAdam Randall RB · neckIR
BALBilhal Kone CB · lower bodyIR
BALDanny Pinter C · right knee surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
BALDurham Smythe TE · achilles surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
BALEthan Pocic C · kneeIR
BALJahquez Robinson S · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
BALJovaughn Gwyn G · ankle surgery, back about Dec 13IR
BALSkylar Thompson QB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 2 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
JAX·BAL
+0.58
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
25.7
points / game
24.1
17.3
points allowed / game
23.9
4−2
season record
4−3
3−1
home record
1−2
1−1
away record
3−1
L1
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
5−5
348
total yards / game
366
5.8
yards / play
5.9
235
passing yards / game
225
113
rushing yards / game
142
21.3
first downs / game
19.7
0.7
turnovers / game
0.7

Rating Trend

JAX · BAL · 30 days
Jacksonville JaguarsBaltimore Ravens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · BAL 1−1
Dec 17, 2023at JAXBAL 23 − 7
Nov 27, 2022at JAXJAX 28 − 27

JAX · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Oct 18vs HOU31 − 34L
Oct 11vs PHI19 − 17W
Oct 4at CIN22 − 17W
Sep 27vs NE35 − 6W
Sep 20at DEN13 − 20L
Sep 13vs CLE34 − 10W
Jan 11vs BUF24 − 27L
Jan 4vs TEN41 − 7W
Dec 28, 2025at IND23 − 17W
Dec 21, 2025at DEN34 − 20W

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Oct 25vs CIN13 − 35L
Oct 18at CLE10 − 13L
Oct 11at ATL30 − 23W
Oct 4vs TEN24 − 18W
Sep 27at DAL34 − 31W
Sep 20vs NO17 − 24L
Sep 13at IND41 − 23W
Jan 4at PIT24 − 26L
Dec 27, 2025at GB41 − 24W
Dec 21, 2025vs NE24 − 28L