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Bengals at Falcons

NFL · Sunday, Nov 8 · 8:30 AM CT · Santiago Bernabéu · neutral site · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 8

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
CIN by 3.6
Expected score
CIN 28.7 – 25.2 ATL
Expected total
53.9
BengalsThe matchupFalcons
−151Our fair odds+151
28.7Expected points25.2
+0.19Power rating−0.09
27.2Points / game24.4
20.3Allowed / game24.7
345Total yards / game337
5.8Yards / play5.6
264Passing yards / game197
4−2Season record3−4
6−4Last 106−4
Kyle Dugger S · Andrei Iosivas WR
Brian Parker II OT · Erick All Jr. TE
Ja'Sir Taylor CBOut (5 each)Anterio Thompson DT · Brian Robinson Jr. RB
DeAngelo Malone LB · Storm Norton OT
Beaux Collins WR

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · ATL chance
Our model fair60.1%39.9%
Kalshi64.6%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi6:01 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Bengals−15160%−18364.6%———
ATLAtlanta Falcons+15140%+12943.7%———
SpreadCIN by 3.6
CINCincinnati Bengals−3.6our margin————
ATLAtlanta Falcons+3.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 53.9
Over53.9our total————
Under53.9our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Bengals by 3.6 expected
Cincinnati Bengals by 39 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 5%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 9%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 7%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%
← CIN wins byATL wins by →
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 3 or more57%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 7 or more38%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 10 or more29%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

53.9 expected
18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 46.566%
Total over 53.549%
Total over 60.533%
Total from 47 to 6034%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
CINJoe Burrow · last 3 games: 72% completions, 303 yds/game, 9 TD, 2 INTdepth chart
ATLMichael Penix Jr. · last 3 games: 64% completions, 226 yds/game, 7 TD, 0 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·ATL
Oct 25 at BAL
last game
Oct 25 vs SF
13 days
days of rest
13 days
3rd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Cincinnati Bengals
CINKyle Dugger S · left quadriceps, back about Nov 8Out
CINJoe Giles-Harris LB · calfQuestionable
CINAndrei Iosivas WR · left thumb surgery, back about Nov 8IR
CINBrian Parker II OT · undisclosedIR
CINErick All Jr. TE · right knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
CINJa'Sir Taylor CB · undisclosedIR
CINJalen Davis CB · left hamstring, back about Nov 8IR
CINSwayze Bozeman LB · right forearm fracture, back about Nov 23IR
CINTanner Hudson TE · pectoral strain, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
Atlanta Falcons
ATLAnterio Thompson DT · undisclosedOut
ATLBrian Robinson Jr. RB · hamstring, back about Nov 8Out
ATLDeAngelo Malone LB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027Out
ATLJames Pearce Jr. LB · suspension, back about Nov 8Suspension
ATLStorm Norton OT · foot surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027Out
ATLAvieon Terrell CB · backQuestionable
ATLBilly Bowman Jr. CB · hamstringQuestionable
ATLCharles Snowden LB · backQuestionable
ATLDivine Deablo LB · forearmQuestionable
ATLOlamide Zaccheaus WR · shoulderQuestionable
and 9 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
CIN·ATL
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
27.2
points / game
24.4
20.3
points allowed / game
24.7
4−2
season record
3−4
1−1
home record
1−3
3−1
away record
2−1
W2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
345
total yards / game
337
5.8
yards / play
5.6
264
passing yards / game
197
81
rushing yards / game
140
21.0
first downs / game
19.0
1.0
turnovers / game
1.7

Rating Trend

CIN · ATL · 30 days
Cincinnati BengalsAtlanta Falcons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · ATL 0−1
Oct 23, 2022at CINCIN 35 − 17

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Oct 25at BAL35 − 13W
Oct 11at MIA31 − 24W
Oct 4vs JAX17 − 22L
Sep 27at PIT27 − 30L
Sep 20at HOU20 − 6W
Sep 13vs TB33 − 27W
Jan 4vs CLE18 − 20L
Dec 28, 2025vs ARI37 − 14W
Dec 21, 2025at MIA45 − 21W
Dec 14, 2025vs BAL0 − 24L

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 25vs SF29 − 20W
Oct 18vs CHI23 − 31L
Oct 11vs BAL23 − 30L
Oct 5at NO45 − 24W
Sep 24at GB35 − 14W
Sep 20vs CAR3 − 34L
Sep 13at PIT13 − 20L
Jan 4vs NO19 − 17W
Dec 29, 2025vs LAR27 − 24W
Dec 21, 2025at ARI26 − 19W