bayesRatings

49ers at Falcons

NFL · Sunday, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Final SF 20 – ATL 29
← NFL / Oct 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SF770620
ATL3971029
Team box
SF·ATL
400
total yards
295
277
passing yards
213
123
rushing yards
82
26
first downs
21
4-10
third downs
4-12
4
turnovers
0
29:13
time of possession
30:47
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Brock PurdySF27/4028812
Michael Penix Jr.ATL25/3421330
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kaelon BlackSF12631
Bijan RobinsonATL20630
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
George KittleSF8880
Drake LondonATL7661

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +12
SF +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 12 · SF 11lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 62%, ATL 38% · Updated Oct 25

Expected margin
SF by 4.0
Expected score
SF 27.1 – 23.2 ATL
Expected total
50.3
49ersThe matchupFalcons
−162Our fair odds+162
27.1Expected points23.2
+0.75Power rating−0.20
29.5Points / game23.7
18.3Allowed / game25.5
367Total yards / game344
6.5Yards / play5.7
238Passing yards / game195
6−0Season record2−4
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · ATL chance
Our model fair61.8%38.2%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket US59.2%44.5%
ProphetX58.5%43.9%
Novig58.0%42.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 11:59 AM CTProphetXpre-game · 11:59 AM CTNovigpre-game · 11:58 AM CT
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco 49ers−16262%−14859.7%−14559.2%−14158.5%−13858.0%
ATLAtlanta Falcons+16238%+12444.7%+12544.5%+12843.9%+13542.5%
SpreadSF by 4.0
SFSan Francisco 49ers−4our margin−2.5 −11653.7%−2.5 −11653.7%−2.5 −10751.7%−2.5 −10852.0%
ATLAtlanta Falcons+4our margin+2.5 −10350.7%+2.5 −10150.2%+2.5 −10350.8%+2.5 +10648.5%
Totalwe expect 50.3
Over50.3our totalo49.5 −11653.7%o49.5 −10952.2%o49.5 −10451.0%o49.5 −10250.5%
Under50.3our totalu49.5 −10350.7%u49.5 −10751.7%u49.5 −11052.4%u49.5 +10050.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco 49ers by 4.0 expected
San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 5%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 9%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 7%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%
← SF wins byATL wins by →
San Francisco 49ers wins by 3 or more58%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 7 or more39%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 10 or more30%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

50.3 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 43.566%
Total over 50.547%
Total over 57.531%
Total from 44 to 5735%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SFBrock Purdy · last 3 games: 67% completions, 224 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted
ATLMichael Penix Jr. · last 3 games: 62% completions, 229 yds/game, 5 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·ATL
Oct 19 vs WSH
last game
Oct 18 vs CHI
5 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Weather

forecast for kickoff · NWS
temp67°F · sunny
wind15 mph E
rain0% chance

For context, not in our forecast. Retractable roof, so it may be closed.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 25, 2026, 11:30 AM CT
San Francisco 49ers
SFDeebo Samuel Sr. · hamstringInactive
SFGarret Wallow · hamstringInactive
SFKurtis Rourke · coach's decisionInactive
SFLuke Gifford · groinInactive
SFMarques Sigle · ankleInactive
SFMike Evans · achillesInactive
SFNick Bosa · kneeInactive
Atlanta Falcons
ATLAndy Dalton · coach's decisionInactive
ATLAvieon Terrell · backInactive
ATLBilly Bowman Jr. · hamstringInactive
ATLBrian Robinson Jr. · hamstringInactive
ATLDivine Deablo · forearmInactive
ATLJack Strand · coach's decisionInactive
ATLOlamide Zaccheaus · shoulderInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
SF·ATL
+0.75
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
29.5
points / game
23.7
18.3
points allowed / game
25.5
6−0
season record
2−4
4−0
home record
0−3
2−0
away record
2−1
W6
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
6−4
367
total yards / game
344
6.5
yards / play
5.7
238
passing yards / game
195
128
rushing yards / game
150
20.5
first downs / game
18.7
1.0
turnovers / game
2.0

Rating Trend

SF · ATL · 25 days
San Francisco 49ersAtlanta Falcons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · ATL 1−2
Oct 19, 2025at SFSF 20 − 10
Oct 16, 2022at ATLATL 28 − 14
Dec 19, 2021at SFSF 31 − 13

SF · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Oct 19vs WSH23 − 17W
Oct 11at SEA32 − 29W
Oct 4vs DEN24 − 14W
Sep 27vs ARI36 − 30W
Sep 20vs MIA35 − 13W
Sep 10at LAR27 − 7W
Jan 17at SEA6 − 41L
Jan 11at PHI23 − 19W
Jan 3vs SEA3 − 13L
Dec 28, 2025vs CHI42 − 38W

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Oct 18vs CHI23 − 31L
Oct 11vs BAL23 − 30L
Oct 5at NO45 − 24W
Sep 24at GB35 − 14W
Sep 20vs CAR3 − 34L
Sep 13at PIT13 − 20L
Jan 4vs NO19 − 17W
Dec 29, 2025vs LAR27 − 24W
Dec 21, 2025at ARI26 − 19W
Dec 11, 2025at TB29 − 28W