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Browns at Saints

NFL · Sunday, Nov 8 · 12:00 PM CT · Caesars Superdome · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 8

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
NO by 1.4
Expected score
NO 21.0 – 19.6 CLE
Expected total
40.6
BrownsThe matchupSaints
+118Our fair odds−118
19.6Expected points21.0
−0.20Power rating−0.48
19.0Points / game23.1
20.9Allowed / game27.7
299Total yards / game316
5.0Yards / play4.7
193Passing yards / game230
5−2Season record2−5
7−3Last 104−6
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB · Joe Royer TE
Alex Wright DE · Damarri Mathis CB
Edefuan Ulofoshio LBOut (5 each)Mason Tipton WR · Nick Saldiveri OT
Bryan Bresee DT · Dillon Radunz G
Jordyn Tyson WR

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · NO chance
Our model fair45.8%54.2%
Kalshi43.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi6:02 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Browns+11846%+12943.7%———
NONew Orleans Saints−11854%−14859.7%———
SpreadNO by 1.4
CLECleveland Browns+1.4our margin————
NONew Orleans Saints−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.6
Over40.6our total————
Under40.6our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New Orleans Saints by 1.4 expected
Cleveland Browns by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 5%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 8%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 7%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 41 points: <1%
← CLE wins byNO wins by →
New Orleans Saints wins by 3 or more47%
New Orleans Saints wins by 7 or more31%
New Orleans Saints wins by 10 or more23%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.6 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.569%
Total over 40.548%
Total over 47.529%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
CLEDeshaun Watson · last 3 games: 59% completions, 209 yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INTdepth chart
NOTyler Shough · last 3 games: 67% completions, 173 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·NO
Oct 25 at TEN
last game
Oct 25 vs PIT
13 days
days of rest
13 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Cleveland Browns
CLEJeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB · neck, back about Feb 15, 2027Out
CLEJoe Royer TE · personalOut
CLEDaniel Thomas S · ankleQuestionable
CLEMyles Harden CB · hamstringQuestionable
CLETytus Howard OT · concussionQuestionable
CLEAlex Wright DE · right achilles surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
CLEDamarri Mathis CB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
CLEEdefuan Ulofoshio LB · biceps, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
CLEElijah Chatman DT · quadriceps, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
CLEKalia Davis DT · quadriceps, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 2 more
New Orleans Saints
NOMason Tipton WR · legOut
NONick Saldiveri OT · left knee, back about Feb 15, 2027Out
NOCJ Donaldson RB · shoulder, back about Nov 8Questionable
NOCesar Ruiz G · knee, back about Nov 8Questionable
NOJustin Reid S · concussion, back about Nov 8Questionable
NONathan Shepherd DT · illness, back about Nov 8Questionable
NOBryan Bresee DT · knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
NODillon Radunz G · knee - acl, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
NOJordyn Tyson WR · right hamstring strain, back about Nov 8IR
NOKelvin Banks Jr. OT · ankle surgery, back about Nov 29IR
and 4 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
CLE·NO
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.48
19.0
points / game
23.1
20.9
points allowed / game
27.7
5−2
season record
2−5
3−0
home record
0−4
2−2
away record
2−1
W2
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
4−6
299
total yards / game
316
5.0
yards / play
4.7
193
passing yards / game
230
107
rushing yards / game
86
17.3
first downs / game
20.4
1.3
turnovers / game
1.9

Rating Trend

CLE · NO · 30 days
Cleveland BrownsNew Orleans Saints
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · NO 2−0
Nov 17, 2024at NONO 35 − 14
Dec 24, 2022at CLENO 17 − 10

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Oct 25at TEN27 − 24W
Oct 18vs BAL13 − 10W
Oct 11at NYJ12 − 17L
Oct 1vs PIT27 − 24W
Sep 27vs CAR21 − 18W
Sep 20at TB23 − 19W
Sep 13at JAX10 − 34L
Jan 4at CIN20 − 18W
Dec 28, 2025vs PIT13 − 6W
Dec 21, 2025vs BUF20 − 23L

NO · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 25vs PIT10 − 16L
Oct 18at NYG34 − 27W
Oct 11vs MIN13 − 23L
Oct 5vs ATL24 − 45L
Sep 27vs LV27 − 35L
Sep 20at BAL24 − 17W
Sep 13at DET30 − 31L
Jan 4at ATL17 − 19L
Dec 28, 2025at TEN34 − 26W
Dec 21, 2025vs NYJ29 − 6W