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Cowboys at Colts

NFL · Sunday, Nov 8 · 12:00 PM CT · Lucas Oil Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 8

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
DAL by 5.6
Expected score
DAL 31.8 – 26.1 IND
Expected total
57.9
CowboysThe matchupColts
−183Our fair odds+183
31.8Expected points26.1
−0.19Power rating−0.28
27.0Points / game22.0
25.7Allowed / game25.7
354Total yards / game298
5.6Yards / play4.5
259Passing yards / game180
3−4Season record2−5
4−6Last 102−8
Dee Winters LB · KaVontae Turpin WR
Devin Moore CB · Jalen Thompson S
Jonathan Bullard DTOut (5 each)Anthony Gould WR · Justin Walley CB
Alec Pierce WR · Arden Key DE
Cam Taylor-Britt CB

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · IND chance
Our model fair64.7%35.3%
Kalshi70.5%34.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi6:02 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Cowboys−18365%−23970.5%———
INDIndianapolis Colts+18335%+18934.5%———
SpreadDAL by 5.6
DALDallas Cowboys−5.6our margin————
INDIndianapolis Colts+5.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 57.9
Over57.9our total————
Under57.9our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Cowboys by 5.6 expected
Dallas Cowboys by 40 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 39 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 5%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 9%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 6%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 39 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 40 points: <1%
← DAL wins byIND wins by →
Dallas Cowboys wins by 3 or more62%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 7 or more44%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 10 or more35%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

57.9 expected
21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: <1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 1%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 1%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 2%71 points: 2%72 points: 2%73 points: 2%74 points: 2%75 points: 2%76 points: 2%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: 1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: 1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: 1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%97 points: <1%98 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 50.566%
Total over 57.550%
Total over 64.534%
Total from 51 to 6432%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 59% completions, 262 yds/game, 5 TD, 4 INTdepth chart
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 55% completions, 215 yds/game, 1 TD, 3 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·IND
Oct 26 at PHI
last game
Oct 25 at MIN
12 days
days of rest
13 days
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Dallas Cowboys
DALDee Winters LB · calf strain, back about Nov 8Out
DALKaVontae Turpin WR · ribs, back about Nov 8Out
DALGeorge Pickens WR · shoulderQuestionable
DALLuke Schoonmaker TE · groinQuestionable
DALDevin Moore CB · hipIR
DALJalen Thompson S · hamstringIR
DALJonathan Bullard DT · calfIR
DALKelvin Gilliam Jr. DT · triceps, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
DALMalik Davis RB · hip surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
DALMarist Liufau LB · left forearm fractureIR
and 3 more
Indianapolis Colts
INDAnthony Gould WR · concussion, back about Nov 8Out
INDJustin Walley CB · knee, back about Nov 8Out
INDBryce Boettcher LB · groinQuestionable
INDDrew Ogletree TE · kneeQuestionable
INDSean McKeon TE · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027Questionable
INDAlec Pierce WR · left heel, back about Nov 8IR
INDArden Key DE · hamstring, back about Nov 8IR
INDCam Taylor-Britt CB · groin, back about Nov 29IR
INDCameron Mitchell CB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
INDCarson Towt TE · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 2 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
DAL·IND
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.28
27.0
points / game
22.0
25.7
points allowed / game
25.7
3−4
season record
2−5
1−2
home record
1−2
2−2
away record
1−3
W1
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
2−8
354
total yards / game
298
5.6
yards / play
4.5
259
passing yards / game
180
94
rushing yards / game
118
23.6
first downs / game
19.3
1.0
turnovers / game
1.7

Rating Trend

DAL · IND · 30 days
Dallas CowboysIndianapolis Colts
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · IND 0−1
Dec 4, 2022at DALDAL 54 − 19

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 26at PHI38 − 21W
Oct 18at GB13 − 23L
Oct 8vs TB16 − 24L
Oct 4at HOU34 − 30W
Sep 27vs BAL31 − 34L
Sep 20vs WSH37 − 20W
Sep 13at NYG20 − 28L
Jan 4at NYG17 − 34L
Dec 25, 2025at WSH30 − 23W
Dec 21, 2025vs LAC17 − 34L

IND · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Oct 25at MIN10 − 16L
Oct 18vs TEN20 − 26L
Oct 11at PIT22 − 34L
Oct 4at WSH30 − 13W
Sep 27vs HOU19 − 17W
Sep 20at KC30 − 33L
Sep 13vs BAL23 − 41L
Jan 4at HOU30 − 38L
Dec 28, 2025vs JAX17 − 23L
Dec 22, 2025vs SF27 − 48L