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Lions at Dolphins

NFL · Sunday, Nov 8 · 12:00 PM CT · Hard Rock Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 8

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
DET by 11.5
Expected score
DET 32.7 – 21.2 MIA
Expected total
53.9
LionsThe matchupDolphins
−353Our fair odds+353
32.7Expected points21.2
+0.36Power rating−0.59
30.7Points / game16.3
27.5Allowed / game26.2
397Total yards / game294
6.0Yards / play5.2
282Passing yards / game162
4−2Season record1−5
5−5Last 102−8
Giovanni Manu OT · Kerby Joseph S
Avonte Maddox CB · Ben Bartch G
Damone Clark LBOut (5 each)Darrell Baker Jr. CB · Kadyn Proctor OT
Cole Turner TE · De'Von Achane RB
Rene Konga DT

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · MIA chance
Our model fair77.9%22.1%
Kalshi82.1%23.2%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi6:01 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Lions−35378%−45882.1%———
MIAMiami Dolphins+35322%+33123.2%———
SpreadDET by 11.5
DETDetroit Lions−11.5our margin————
MIAMiami Dolphins+11.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 53.9
Over53.9our total————
Under53.9our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Lions by 11.5 expected
Detroit Lions by 40 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 33 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 32 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 30 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 29 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 5%Detroit Lions by 27 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 26 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 25 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 5%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 6%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 1%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 39 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 40 points: <1%
← DET wins byMIA wins by →
Detroit Lions wins by 3 or more74%
Detroit Lions wins by 7 or more62%
Detroit Lions wins by 10 or more55%
Within 3 points either way15%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

53.9 expected
18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 46.566%
Total over 53.549%
Total over 60.533%
Total from 47 to 6034%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 64% completions, 329 yds/game, 6 TD, 0 INTdepth chart
MIAMalik Willis · last 3 games: 58% completions, 143 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·MIA
Oct 25 vs GB
last game
Oct 25 at NYJ
13 days
days of rest
13 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Detroit Lions
DETGiovanni Manu OT · kneeOut
DETKerby Joseph S · kneeOut
DETRoger McCreary CB · footQuestionable
DETAvonte Maddox CB · left foot surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
DETBen Bartch G · foot, back about Nov 22IR
DETDamone Clark LB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
DETDevin White LB · forearm surgery, back about Nov 22IR
DETIsiah Pacheco RB · back, back about Dec 28IR
DETKendrick Law WR · knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
DETPayton Turner DE · back, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 2 more
Miami Dolphins
MIADarrell Baker Jr. CB · undisclosedOut
MIAKadyn Proctor OT · concussion, back about Nov 8Out
MIAJuJu Brents CB · concussionQuestionable
MIAReese Taylor CB · quadricepsQuestionable
MIACole Turner TE · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
MIADe'Von Achane RB · left knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
MIARene Konga DT · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
MIARonnie Harrison Jr. LB · hamstringIR
MIATrey Moore LB · ankle surgeryIR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
DET·MIA
+0.36
rating (0 = average)
−0.59
30.7
points / game
16.3
27.5
points allowed / game
26.2
4−2
season record
1−5
3−0
home record
0−2
1−2
away record
1−3
W2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
2−8
397
total yards / game
294
6.0
yards / play
5.2
282
passing yards / game
162
115
rushing yards / game
132
24.7
first downs / game
16.7
0.5
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

DET · MIA · 30 days
Detroit LionsMiami Dolphins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · MIA 1−0
Oct 30, 2022at DETMIA 31 − 27

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 25vs GB20 − 17W
Oct 11at ARI45 − 21W
Oct 4at CAR26 − 32L
Sep 27vs NYJ31 − 24W
Sep 17at BUF31 − 41L
Sep 13vs NO31 − 30W
Jan 4at CHI19 − 16W
Dec 25, 2025at MIN10 − 23L
Dec 21, 2025vs PIT24 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at LAR34 − 41L

MIA · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Oct 25at NYJ28 − 25W
Oct 11vs CIN24 − 31L
Oct 4at MIN10 − 15L
Sep 27vs KC10 − 24L
Sep 20at SF13 − 35L
Sep 13at LV13 − 27L
Jan 4at NE10 − 38L
Dec 28, 2025vs TB20 − 17W
Dec 21, 2025vs CIN21 − 45L
Dec 15, 2025at PIT15 − 28L