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Raiders at 49ers

NFL · Sunday, Nov 8 · 3:25 PM CT · Levi's Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 8

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
SF by 11.1
Expected score
SF 31.0 – 19.9 LV
Expected total
50.9
RaidersThe matchup49ers
+404Our fair odds−404
19.9Expected points31.0
−0.58Power rating+0.58
26.1Points / game28.1
28.1Allowed / game19.9
344Total yards / game371
5.4Yards / play6.4
269Passing yards / game244
3−4Season record6−1
4−6Last 107−3
Patrick Johnson DE · Brennan Jackson LB
Carter Runyon TE · Chigozie Anusiem CB
Chris Collier RBOut (5 each)Brandon Aiyuk WR · Isaac Guerendo RB
Alfred Collins DT · Andrew Farmer II DE
Austen Pleasants OT

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LV chance · SF chance
Our model fair19.8%80.2%
Kalshi21.1%83.0%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi6:02 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LVLas Vegas Raiders+40420%+37321.1%———
SFSan Francisco 49ers−40480%−48983.0%———
SpreadSF by 11.1
LVLas Vegas Raiders+11.1our margin————
SFSan Francisco 49ers−11.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 50.9
Over50.9our total————
Under50.9our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco 49ers by 11.1 expected
Las Vegas Raiders by 49 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 48 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 47 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 46 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 45 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 44 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 43 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 42 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 41 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 5%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 6%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 41 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 42 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 43 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 44 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 45 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 46 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 47 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 48 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 49 points: <1%
← LV wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco 49ers wins by 3 or more73%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 7 or more58%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 10 or more50%
Within 3 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

50.9 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 43.567%
Total over 50.549%
Total over 57.532%
Total from 44 to 5735%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
LVKirk Cousins · last 3 games: 60% completions, 284 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTdepth chart
SFBrock Purdy · last 3 games: 68% completions, 247 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LV·SF
Oct 25 vs LAR
last game
Oct 25 at ATL
13 days
days of rest
13 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Las Vegas Raiders
LVPatrick Johnson DE · neck stinger, back about Nov 8Out
LVJackson Powers-Johnson G · backQuestionable
LVBrennan Jackson LB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
LVCarter Runyon TE · footIR
LVChigozie Anusiem CB · knee, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
LVChris Collier RB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
LVJack Bech WR · right forearm fractureIR
LVJustin Pickett G · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
LVKeyron Crawford DE · ankle, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
San Francisco 49ers
SFBrandon Aiyuk WR · personal, back about Feb 15, 2027Out
SFIsaac Guerendo RB · pectoral surgeryOut
SFBrett Toth C · concussionQuestionable
SFChristian McCaffrey RB · left hamstring, back about Nov 8Questionable
SFDeebo Samuel Sr. WR · right hamstring, back about Nov 8Questionable
SFGarret Wallow LB · hamstring strain, back about Nov 8Questionable
SFLuke Gifford LB · groin, back about Nov 8Questionable
SFMarques Sigle S · ankle, back about Nov 8Questionable
SFMike Evans WR · right achilles tendinitis, back about Nov 8Questionable
SFNick Bosa DE · left knee strain, back about Nov 8Questionable
and 15 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
LV·SF
−0.58
rating (0 = average)
+0.58
26.1
points / game
28.1
28.1
points allowed / game
19.9
3−4
season record
6−1
1−3
home record
4−0
2−1
away record
2−1
L4
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
7−3
344
total yards / game
371
5.4
yards / play
6.4
269
passing yards / game
244
75
rushing yards / game
127
20.9
first downs / game
21.3
1.1
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

LV · SF · 30 days
Las Vegas RaidersSan Francisco 49ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · SF 1−0
Jan 1, 2023at LVSF 37 − 34

LV · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Oct 25vs LAR21 − 35L
Oct 18vs BUF30 − 33L
Oct 11at NE17 − 45L
Oct 4vs KC27 − 30L
Sep 27at NO35 − 27W
Sep 20at LAC26 − 14W
Sep 13vs MIA27 − 13W
Jan 4vs KC14 − 12W
Dec 28, 2025vs NYG10 − 34L
Dec 21, 2025at HOU21 − 23L

SF · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Oct 25at ATL20 − 29L
Oct 19vs WSH23 − 17W
Oct 11at SEA32 − 29W
Oct 4vs DEN24 − 14W
Sep 27vs ARI36 − 30W
Sep 20vs MIA35 − 13W
Sep 10at LAR27 − 7W
Jan 17at SEA6 − 41L
Jan 11at PHI23 − 19W
Jan 3vs SEA3 − 13L