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Rams at Commanders

NFL · Sunday, Nov 8 · 12:00 PM CT · Northwest Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 8

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
LAR by 6.4
Expected score
LAR 30.3 – 23.9 WSH
Expected total
54.2
RamsThe matchupCommanders
−188Our fair odds+188
30.3Expected points23.9
+0.34Power rating−0.53
24.3Points / game22.0
22.7Allowed / game28.7
399Total yards / game325
5.9Yards / play5.1
274Passing yards / game200
3−4Season record1−4−1
5−5Last 103−6−1
Blake Grupe PK · Daniel Rickert DE
Davante Adams WR · Eddie Walls III LB
Justin Dedich GOut (5 each)Javon Kinlaw DT · Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB
Javontae Jean-Baptiste LB · Jaylin Lane WR
Jer'Zhan Newton DT

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAR chance · WSH chance
Our model fair65.3%34.7%
Kalshi70.5%37.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi6:01 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LARLos Angeles Rams−18865%−23970.5%———
WSHWashington Commanders+18835%+16637.6%———
SpreadLAR by 6.4
LARLos Angeles Rams−6.4our margin————
WSHWashington Commanders+6.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 54.2
Over54.2our total————
Under54.2our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 6.4 expected
Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 5%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 8%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 2%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 6%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 9 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 11 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 13 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 16 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 18 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 39 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 40 points: <1%
← LAR wins byWSH wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more64%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more46%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more38%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

54.2 expected
18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: <1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 47.564%
Total over 54.547%
Total over 61.531%
Total from 48 to 6133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 76% completions, 267 yds/game, 8 TD, 1 INTdepth chart
WSHJayden Daniels · last 3 games: 70% completions, 198 yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAR·WSH
Oct 25 at LV
last game
Oct 19 at SF
13 days
days of rest
19 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Los Angeles Rams
LARJoe Cardona LS · ankleDoubtful
LARColby Parkinson TE · ribsQuestionable
LARColeman Shelton C · hipQuestionable
LARJordan Whittington WR · backQuestionable
LARKeir Thomas II LB · groinQuestionable
LARTrent McDuffie CB · groinQuestionable
LARZech McPhearson CBQuestionable
LARBlake Grupe PK · knee - acl, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
LARDaniel Rickert DE · knee, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
LARDavante Adams WR · left hamstring surgery, back about Nov 25IR
and 8 more
Washington Commanders
WSHJavon Kinlaw DT · knee, back about Nov 8Out
WSHCharles Omenihu DE · groinQuestionable
WSHJohn Bates TE · shoulderQuestionable
WSHNick Allegretti G · backQuestionable
WSHTreylon Burks WR · footQuestionable
WSHJacory Croskey-Merritt RB · groin, back about Nov 23IR
WSHJavontae Jean-Baptiste LB · pectoral, back about Nov 23IR
WSHJaylin Lane WR · left ankle surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
WSHJer'Zhan Newton DT · pectoral surgeryIR
WSHLaremy Tunsil OT · right triceps surgery, back about Dec 20IR
and 2 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
LAR·WSH
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
−0.53
24.3
points / game
22.0
22.7
points allowed / game
28.7
3−4
season record
1−4−1
1−3
home record
1−1−1
2−1
away record
0−3
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
3−6−1
399
total yards / game
325
5.9
yards / play
5.1
274
passing yards / game
200
125
rushing yards / game
125
24.3
first downs / game
18.7
1.6
turnovers / game
0.3

Rating Trend

LAR · WSH · 30 days
Los Angeles RamsWashington Commanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · WSH 0−1
Dec 17, 2023at LARLAR 28 − 20

LAR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 25at LV35 − 21W
Oct 18vs ARI16 − 18L
Oct 12vs BUF34 − 37L
Oct 4at PHI24 − 20W
Sep 27at DEN26 − 30L
Sep 21vs NYG28 − 6W
Sep 10vs SF7 − 27L
Jan 25at SEA27 − 31L
Jan 18at CHI20 − 17W
Jan 10at CAR34 − 31W

WSH · Last 10

3−6−1 · streak L1
Oct 19at SF17 − 23L
Oct 11vs NYG27 − 27T
Oct 4vs IND13 − 30L
Sep 27vs SEA33 − 31W
Sep 20at DAL20 − 37L
Sep 13at PHI22 − 24L
Jan 4at PHI24 − 17W
Dec 25, 2025vs DAL23 − 30L
Dec 20, 2025vs PHI18 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at NYG29 − 21W