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Jets at Chiefs

NFL · Sunday, Nov 8 · 12:00 PM CT · Arrowhead Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 8

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
KC by 11.3
Expected score
KC 25.1 – 13.8 NYJ
Expected total
38.9
JetsThe matchupChiefs
+366Our fair odds−366
13.8Expected points25.1
−0.72Power rating+0.30
19.6Points / game23.8
21.4Allowed / game17.2
303Total yards / game380
5.3Yards / play6.3
207Passing yards / game239
2−5Season record5−1
2−8Last 105−5
Joseph Ossai DE · Max Mitchell OT
T'Vondre Sweat DT · Tyler Baron DE
Anez Cooper GOut (5 each)Omarr Norman-Lott DT · Brashard Smith RB
Ethan Downs LB · Jeff Caldwell WR
Jimmy Holiday WR

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYJ chance · KC chance
Our model fair21.5%78.5%
Kalshi22.2%84.0%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi6:02 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYJNew York Jets+36621%+35122.2%———
KCKansas City Chiefs−36679%−52584.0%———
SpreadKC by 11.3
NYJNew York Jets+11.3our margin————
KCKansas City Chiefs−11.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 38.9
Over38.9our total————
Under38.9our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Chiefs by 11.3 expected
New York Jets by 49 points: <1%New York Jets by 48 points: <1%New York Jets by 47 points: <1%New York Jets by 46 points: <1%New York Jets by 45 points: <1%New York Jets by 44 points: <1%New York Jets by 43 points: <1%New York Jets by 42 points: <1%New York Jets by 41 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: <1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 25 points: <1%New York Jets by 24 points: <1%New York Jets by 23 points: <1%New York Jets by 22 points: <1%New York Jets by 21 points: <1%New York Jets by 20 points: <1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 18 points: <1%New York Jets by 17 points: 1%New York Jets by 16 points: <1%New York Jets by 15 points: <1%New York Jets by 14 points: 1%New York Jets by 13 points: <1%New York Jets by 12 points: <1%New York Jets by 11 points: <1%New York Jets by 10 points: 1%New York Jets by 9 points: <1%New York Jets by 8 points: 1%New York Jets by 7 points: 2%New York Jets by 6 points: 2%New York Jets by 5 points: 1%New York Jets by 4 points: 2%New York Jets by 3 points: 5%New York Jets by 2 points: 1%New York Jets by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 6%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 39 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 40 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 41 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 42 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 43 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 44 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 45 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 46 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 47 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 48 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 49 points: <1%
← NYJ wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 3 or more73%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 7 or more59%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 10 or more50%
Within 3 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

38.9 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 31.570%
Total over 38.550%
Total over 45.529%
Total from 32 to 4541%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
NYJGeno Smith · last 3 games: 67% completions, 240 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTdepth chart
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 61% completions, 221 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYJ·KC
Oct 25 vs MIA
last game
Oct 25 at SEA
13 days
days of rest
13 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
New York Jets
NYJJoseph Ossai DE · ankle, back about Nov 8Out
NYJMax Mitchell OT · concussion, back about Nov 8Out
NYJT'Vondre Sweat DT · knee, back about Nov 8Out
NYJTyler Baron DE · kneeOut
NYJDavid Bailey LB · groinDoubtful
NYJBreece Hall RB · right quadricepsQuestionable
NYJCaullin Lacy WRQuestionable
NYJDylan Parham G · kneeQuestionable
NYJAnez Cooper G · shoulderIR
NYJArian Smith WR · knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 8 more
Kansas City Chiefs
KCOmarr Norman-Lott DT · right knee - acl surgeryOut
KCL'Jarius Sneed CB · kneeQuestionable
KCMansoor Delane CB · shoulderQuestionable
KCR Mason Thomas DE · personalQuestionable
KCBrashard Smith RB · hamstring, back about Nov 22IR
KCEthan Downs LB · knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
KCJeff Caldwell WR · left knee soreness, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
KCJimmy Holiday WR · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
KCJohn Michael Gyllenborg TE · knee sprain, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
KCJosh Simmons OT · back, back about Nov 22IR
and 2 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
NYJ·KC
−0.72
rating (0 = average)
+0.30
19.6
points / game
23.8
21.4
points allowed / game
17.2
2−5
season record
5−1
1−2
home record
3−0
1−3
away record
2−1
L2
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
5−5
303
total yards / game
380
5.3
yards / play
6.3
207
passing yards / game
239
96
rushing yards / game
142
17.6
first downs / game
19.5
0.7
turnovers / game
0.8

Rating Trend

NYJ · KC · 30 days
New York JetsKansas City Chiefs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · KC 1−0
Oct 1, 2023at NYJKC 23 − 20

NYJ · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Oct 25vs MIA25 − 28L
Oct 18at NE19 − 26L
Oct 11vs CLE17 − 12W
Oct 4at CHI12 − 23L
Sep 27at DET24 − 31L
Sep 20vs GB17 − 20L
Sep 13at TEN23 − 10W
Jan 4at BUF8 − 35L
Dec 28, 2025vs NE10 − 42L
Dec 21, 2025at NO6 − 29L

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 25at SEA3 − 20L
Oct 18vs LAC22 − 6W
Oct 4at LV30 − 27W
Sep 27at MIA24 − 10W
Sep 20vs IND33 − 30W
Sep 14vs DEN31 − 10W
Jan 4at LV12 − 14L
Dec 25, 2025vs DEN13 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at TEN9 − 26L
Dec 14, 2025vs LAC13 − 16L