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Buccaneers at Bears

NFL · Sunday, Nov 8 · 7:20 PM CT · Soldier Field · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 8

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
CHI by 7.0
Expected score
CHI 27.0 – 19.9 TB
Expected total
46.9
BuccaneersThe matchupBears
+255Our fair odds−255
19.9Expected points27.0
−0.11Power rating+0.39
23.1Points / game25.7
21.6Allowed / game20.4
297Total yards / game391
4.8Yards / play5.4
150Passing yards / game236
2−5Season record5−2
3−7Last 106−4
Emeka Egbuka WR · Christian Rozeboom LB
Jalen McMillan WR · Josh Hayes CB
Mohamed Kamara LBOut (5 each)Braxton Jones OT · Brittain Brown RB
Coby Bryant S · Cole Kmet TE
Dallis Flowers CB

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · CHI chance
Our model fair28.1%71.9%
Kalshi32.5%73.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi6:02 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers+25528%+20832.5%———
CHIChicago Bears−25572%−27673.4%———
SpreadCHI by 7.0
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers+7our margin————
CHIChicago Bears−7our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.9
Over46.9our total————
Under46.9our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Bears by 7.0 expected
Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 46 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 45 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 44 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 43 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 42 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 41 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 40 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 39 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 6%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 7%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 32 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 46 points: <1%
← TB wins byCHI wins by →
Chicago Bears wins by 3 or more63%
Chicago Bears wins by 7 or more47%
Chicago Bears wins by 10 or more39%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.9 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.568%
Total over 46.548%
Total over 53.531%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 57% completions, 154 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTdepth chart
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 71% completions, 250 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·CHI
Oct 25 at CAR
last game
Oct 22 vs NE
13 days
days of rest
16 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TBEmeka Egbuka WR · foot, back about Nov 8Out
TBKenny Gainwell RB · hipQuestionable
TBLuke Goedeke OT · calfQuestionable
TBChristian Rozeboom LB · finger, back about Nov 30IR
TBJalen McMillan WR · left knee - pcl sprain, back about Nov 22IR
TBJosh Hayes CB · knee surgery, back about Nov 22IR
TBMohamed Kamara LB · left knee sprain, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
Chicago Bears
CHIColston Loveland TE · neckQuestionable
CHID'Marco Jackson LB · ankleQuestionable
CHIJack Sanborn LB · concussionQuestionable
CHIKyle Monangai RB · thumb sprainQuestionable
CHIMalik Muhammad II CB · toeQuestionable
CHIBraxton Jones OT · kneeIR
CHIBrittain Brown RB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
CHICoby Bryant S · left knee surgery, back about Dec 19IR
CHICole Kmet TE · right knee, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
CHIDallis Flowers CB · right leg, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 6 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
TB·CHI
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.39
23.1
points / game
25.7
21.6
points allowed / game
20.4
2−5
season record
5−2
0−4
home record
3−1
2−1
away record
2−1
W1
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
6−4
297
total yards / game
391
4.8
yards / play
5.4
150
passing yards / game
236
146
rushing yards / game
154
18.3
first downs / game
22.7
1.6
turnovers / game
1.6

Rating Trend

TB · CHI · 30 days
Tampa Bay BuccaneersChicago Bears
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · CHI 0−2
Sep 17, 2023at TBTB 27 − 17
Oct 24, 2021at TBTB 38 − 3

TB · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Oct 25at CAR43 − 13W
Oct 18vs PIT19 − 26L
Oct 8at DAL24 − 16W
Oct 4vs GB14 − 17L
Sep 27vs MIN16 − 23L
Sep 20vs CLE19 − 23L
Sep 13at CIN27 − 33L
Jan 3vs CAR16 − 14W
Dec 28, 2025at MIA17 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at CAR20 − 23L

CHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Oct 22vs NE30 − 24W
Oct 18at ATL31 − 23W
Oct 11at GB7 − 31L
Oct 4vs NYJ23 − 12W
Sep 28vs PHI27 − 7W
Sep 20vs MIN3 − 9L
Sep 13at CAR59 − 37W
Jan 18vs LAR17 − 20L
Jan 10vs GB31 − 27W
Jan 4vs DET16 − 19L