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Bills at Vikings

NFL · Monday, Nov 9 · 7:15 PM CT · U.S. Bank Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 9

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31

Expected margin
BUF by 0.1
Expected score
BUF 23.2 – 23.1 MIN
Expected total
46.3
BillsThe matchupVikings
−110Our fair odds+110
23.2Expected points23.1
+0.70Power rating+0.67
32.8Points / game20.8
28.5Allowed / game12.3
388Total yards / game282
6.5Yards / play4.6
239Passing yards / game162
5−1Season record6−0
7−3Last 1010−0
Dorian Strong CB · Tyrell Shavers WR
Jordan Hancock CB · Zane Durant DTOutDonovan Jackson G · Jamal Adams LB
Josh Oliver TE · Nick Samac C
Tyler Batty LB

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BUF chance · MIN chance
Our model fair52.4%47.6%
Kalshi60.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi1:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BUFBuffalo Bills−11052%−15460.7%———
MINMinnesota Vikings+11048%+10947.7%———
SpreadBUF by 0.1
BUFBuffalo Bills−0.1our margin————
MINMinnesota Vikings+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.3
Over46.3our total————
Under46.3our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 0.1 expected
Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 9%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 7%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%
← BUF wins byMIN wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more47%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more29%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more21%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.3 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.567%
Total over 46.547%
Total over 53.529%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 68% completions, 239 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTdepth chart
MINKyler Murray · last 3 games: 71% completions, 209 yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BUF·MIN
Oct 18 at LV
last game
Oct 25 vs IND
21 days
days of rest
14 days
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Buffalo Bills
BUFC.J. Gardner-Johnson S · suspension, back about Nov 9Suspension
BUFDorian Strong CB · neck, back about Feb 15, 2027Out
BUFTyrell Shavers WR · knee - acl surgery, back about Nov 9Out
BUFDJ Moore WR · shoulder - ac joint sprainQuestionable
BUFDalton Kincaid TE · chestQuestionable
BUFDee Alford CB · ankleQuestionable
BUFGreg Gaines DT · calfQuestionable
BUFSpencer Brown OT · backQuestionable
BUFTJ Parker LB · kneeQuestionable
BUFTe'Cory Couch CB · hamstringQuestionable
and 2 more
Minnesota Vikings
MINJay Ward S · kneeQuestionable
MINDonovan Jackson G · knee - meniscus surgery, back about Jan 17, 2027IR
MINJamal Adams LB · right quadriceps, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
MINJosh Oliver TE · biceps surgery, back about Jan 17, 2027IR
MINNick Samac C · kneeIR
MINTyler Batty LB · knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
BUF·MIN
+0.70
rating (0 = average)
+0.67
32.8
points / game
20.8
28.5
points allowed / game
12.3
5−1
season record
6−0
2−1
home record
3−0
3−0
away record
3−0
W2
streak
W6
7−3
last 10
10−0
388
total yards / game
282
6.5
yards / play
4.6
239
passing yards / game
162
149
rushing yards / game
119
23.8
first downs / game
15.7
1.5
turnovers / game
0.7

Rating Trend

BUF · MIN · 31 days
Buffalo BillsMinnesota Vikings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · MIN 1−0
Nov 13, 2022at BUFMIN 33 − 30

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Oct 18at LV33 − 30W
Oct 12at LAR37 − 34W
Oct 4vs NE26 − 29L
Sep 27vs LAC24 − 16W
Sep 17vs DET41 − 31W
Sep 13at HOU36 − 31W
Jan 17at DEN30 − 33L
Jan 11at JAX27 − 24W
Jan 4vs NYJ35 − 8W
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI12 − 13L

MIN · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Oct 25vs IND16 − 10W
Oct 11at NO23 − 13W
Oct 4vs MIA15 − 10W
Sep 27at TB23 − 16W
Sep 20at CHI9 − 3W
Sep 13vs GB39 − 22W
Jan 4vs GB16 − 3W
Dec 25, 2025vs DET23 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025at NYG16 − 13W
Dec 14, 2025at DAL34 − 26W