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Commanders at Giants

NFL · Thursday, Nov 12 · 7:15 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 12

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31

Expected margin
NYG by 0.7
Expected score
NYG 25.9 – 25.1 WSH
Expected total
51.0
CommandersThe matchupGiants
+134Our fair odds−134
25.1Expected points25.9
−0.53Power rating−0.19
22.0Points / game23.3
28.7Allowed / game23.0
325Total yards / game346
5.1Yards / play5.2
200Passing yards / game229
1−4−1Season record4−2−1
3−6−1Last 106−3−1
Daron Payne DT · Javon Kinlaw DT
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB · Javontae Jean-Baptiste LB
Jaylin Lane WROut (5 each)Braxton Berrios WR · Brian Burns LB
Calvin Austin III WR · Chauncey Golston DE
Gunner Olszewski WR

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · NYG chance
Our model fair42.7%57.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Commanders+13443%————
NYGNew York Giants−13457%————
SpreadNYG by 0.7
WSHWashington Commanders+0.7our margin————
NYGNew York Giants−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 51.0
Over51.0our total————
Under51.0our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Giants by 0.7 expected
Washington Commanders by 40 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 39 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 18 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 16 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 13 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 11 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 9 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 5%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 9%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New York Giants by 1 point: 2%New York Giants by 2 points: 3%New York Giants by 3 points: 7%New York Giants by 4 points: 2%New York Giants by 5 points: 2%New York Giants by 6 points: 4%New York Giants by 7 points: 4%New York Giants by 8 points: 3%New York Giants by 9 points: 1%New York Giants by 10 points: 2%New York Giants by 11 points: 1%New York Giants by 12 points: 1%New York Giants by 13 points: 1%New York Giants by 14 points: 1%New York Giants by 15 points: 1%New York Giants by 16 points: 1%New York Giants by 17 points: 2%New York Giants by 18 points: 1%New York Giants by 19 points: <1%New York Giants by 20 points: 1%New York Giants by 21 points: 1%New York Giants by 22 points: 1%New York Giants by 23 points: 1%New York Giants by 24 points: 1%New York Giants by 25 points: 1%New York Giants by 26 points: <1%New York Giants by 27 points: <1%New York Giants by 28 points: 1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: 1%New York Giants by 32 points: <1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: <1%New York Giants by 35 points: <1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: <1%New York Giants by 38 points: <1%New York Giants by 39 points: <1%New York Giants by 40 points: <1%
← WSH wins byNYG wins by →
New York Giants wins by 3 or more45%
New York Giants wins by 7 or more29%
New York Giants wins by 10 or more21%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

51.0 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 44.564%
Total over 51.546%
Total over 58.530%
Total from 45 to 5835%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
WSHJayden Daniels · last 3 games: 70% completions, 198 yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INTdepth chart
NYGJ.J. McCarthy · last 3 games: 62% completions, 226 yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·NYG
Oct 19 at SF
last game
Oct 25 at HOU
23 days
days of rest
17 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Washington Commanders
WSHDaron Payne DT · foot, back about Dec 13Out
WSHJavon Kinlaw DT · kneeOut
WSHCharles Omenihu DE · groinQuestionable
WSHJohn Bates TE · shoulderQuestionable
WSHTreylon Burks WR · footQuestionable
WSHJacory Croskey-Merritt RB · groin, back about Nov 23IR
WSHJavontae Jean-Baptiste LB · pectoral, back about Nov 23IR
WSHJaylin Lane WR · left ankle surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
WSHJer'Zhan Newton DT · pectoral surgeryIR
WSHLaremy Tunsil OT · right triceps surgery, back about Dec 20IR
and 2 more
New York Giants
NYGCam Skattebo RB · hamstringQuestionable
NYGDJ James CBQuestionable
NYGGreg Newsome II CB · concussionQuestionable
NYGJevon Holland S · concussionQuestionable
NYGMarcus Mbow OT · kneeQuestionable
NYGTheo Johnson TE · neckQuestionable
NYGBraxton Berrios WR · foot surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
NYGBrian Burns LB · right knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
NYGCalvin Austin III WR · right knee, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
NYGChauncey Golston DE · neck, back about Nov 12IR
and 9 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
WSH·NYG
−0.53
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
22.0
points / game
23.3
28.7
points allowed / game
23.0
1−4−1
season record
4−2−1
1−1−1
home record
3−1
0−3
away record
1−1−1
L1
streak
W1
3−6−1
last 10
6−3−1
325
total yards / game
346
5.1
yards / play
5.2
200
passing yards / game
229
125
rushing yards / game
117
18.7
first downs / game
21.0
0.3
turnovers / game
1.6

Rating Trend

WSH · NYG · 31 days
Washington CommandersNew York Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYG 4−6
Oct 11at WSHNYG 27 − 27
Dec 14, 2025at NYGWSH 29 − 21
Sep 7, 2025at WSHWSH 21 − 6
Nov 3, 2024at NYGWSH 27 − 22
Sep 15, 2024at WSHWSH 21 − 18
Nov 19, 2023at WSHNYG 31 − 19
Oct 22, 2023at NYGNYG 14 − 7
Dec 18, 2022at WSHNYG 20 − 12
Dec 4, 2022at NYGWSH 20 − 20
Jan 9, 2022at NYGWSH 22 − 7

WSH · Last 10

3−6−1 · streak L1
Oct 19at SF17 − 23L
Oct 11vs NYG27 − 27T
Oct 4vs IND13 − 30L
Sep 27vs SEA33 − 31W
Sep 20at DAL20 − 37L
Sep 13at PHI22 − 24L
Jan 4at PHI24 − 17W
Dec 25, 2025vs DAL23 − 30L
Dec 20, 2025vs PHI18 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at NYG29 − 21W

NYG · Last 10

6−3−1 · streak W1
Oct 25at HOU27 − 21W
Oct 18vs NO27 − 34L
Oct 11at WSH27 − 27T
Oct 4vs ARI36 − 24W
Sep 27vs TEN12 − 7W
Sep 21at LAR6 − 28L
Sep 13vs DAL28 − 20W
Jan 4vs DAL34 − 17W
Dec 28, 2025at LV34 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025vs MIN13 − 16L