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Bills at Jets

NFL · Sunday, Nov 15 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 15

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Nov 1

Expected margin
BUF by 12.5
Expected score
BUF 34.3 – 21.8 NYJ
Expected total
56.1
BillsThe matchupJets
−277Our fair odds+277
34.3Expected points21.8
+0.70Power rating−0.72
32.8Points / game19.6
28.5Allowed / game21.4
388Total yards / game303
6.5Yards / play5.3
239Passing yards / game207
5−1Season record2−5
7−3Last 102−8
Dorian Strong CB · Tyrell Shavers WR
Jordan Hancock CB · Zane Durant DTOutJoseph Ossai DE · Max Mitchell OT
Tyler Baron DE · Anez Cooper G
Arian Smith WR

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BUF chance · NYJ chance
Our model fair73.4%26.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BUFBuffalo Bills−27773%————
NYJNew York Jets+27727%————
SpreadBUF by 12.5
BUFBuffalo Bills−12.5our margin————
NYJNew York Jets+12.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 56.1
Over56.1our total————
Under56.1our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 12.5 expected
Buffalo Bills by 40 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 6%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%New York Jets by 1 point: 1%New York Jets by 2 points: 2%New York Jets by 3 points: 3%New York Jets by 4 points: 1%New York Jets by 5 points: 1%New York Jets by 6 points: 2%New York Jets by 7 points: 2%New York Jets by 8 points: 1%New York Jets by 9 points: <1%New York Jets by 10 points: 1%New York Jets by 11 points: <1%New York Jets by 12 points: 1%New York Jets by 13 points: 1%New York Jets by 14 points: 1%New York Jets by 15 points: 1%New York Jets by 16 points: <1%New York Jets by 17 points: 1%New York Jets by 18 points: 1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 20 points: <1%New York Jets by 21 points: <1%New York Jets by 22 points: <1%New York Jets by 23 points: <1%New York Jets by 24 points: <1%New York Jets by 25 points: <1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: <1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%
← BUF wins byNYJ wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more75%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more64%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more58%
Within 3 points either way14%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

56.1 expected
20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 1%71 points: 2%72 points: 1%73 points: 2%74 points: 2%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 49.564%
Total over 56.548%
Total over 63.532%
Total from 50 to 6332%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 68% completions, 239 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTdepth chart
NYJGeno Smith · last 3 games: 67% completions, 240 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BUF·NYJ
Oct 18 at LV
last game
Oct 25 vs MIA
27 days
days of rest
20 days
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Buffalo Bills
BUFC.J. Gardner-Johnson S · suspensionSuspension
BUFDorian Strong CB · neck, back about Feb 15, 2027Out
BUFTyrell Shavers WR · knee - acl surgeryOut
BUFDJ Moore WR · shoulder - ac joint sprainQuestionable
BUFDalton Kincaid TE · chestQuestionable
BUFDee Alford CB · ankleQuestionable
BUFGreg Gaines DT · calfQuestionable
BUFSpencer Brown OT · backQuestionable
BUFTJ Parker LB · kneeQuestionable
BUFJordan Hancock CB · hamstringIR
and 1 more
New York Jets
NYJJoseph Ossai DE · ankleOut
NYJMax Mitchell OT · concussionOut
NYJTyler Baron DE · kneeOut
NYJDavid Bailey LB · groinDoubtful
NYJBreece Hall RB · right quadricepsQuestionable
NYJCaullin Lacy WRQuestionable
NYJDylan Parham G · kneeQuestionable
NYJAnez Cooper G · shoulderIR
NYJArian Smith WR · knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
NYJBraiden McGregor DE · pectoral surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 8 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
BUF·NYJ
+0.70
rating (0 = average)
−0.72
32.8
points / game
19.6
28.5
points allowed / game
21.4
5−1
season record
2−5
2−1
home record
1−2
3−0
away record
1−3
W2
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
2−8
388
total yards / game
303
6.5
yards / play
5.3
239
passing yards / game
207
149
rushing yards / game
96
23.8
first downs / game
17.6
1.5
turnovers / game
0.7

Rating Trend

BUF · NYJ · 32 days
Buffalo BillsNew York Jets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYJ 2−8
Jan 4at BUFBUF 35 − 8
Sep 14, 2025at NYJBUF 30 − 10
Dec 29, 2024at BUFBUF 40 − 14
Oct 14, 2024at NYJBUF 23 − 20
Nov 19, 2023at BUFBUF 32 − 6
Sep 11, 2023at NYJNYJ 22 − 16
Dec 11, 2022at BUFBUF 20 − 12
Nov 6, 2022at NYJNYJ 20 − 17
Jan 9, 2022at BUFBUF 27 − 10
Nov 14, 2021at NYJBUF 45 − 17

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Oct 18at LV33 − 30W
Oct 12at LAR37 − 34W
Oct 4vs NE26 − 29L
Sep 27vs LAC24 − 16W
Sep 17vs DET41 − 31W
Sep 13at HOU36 − 31W
Jan 17at DEN30 − 33L
Jan 11at JAX27 − 24W
Jan 4vs NYJ35 − 8W
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI12 − 13L

NYJ · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Oct 25vs MIA25 − 28L
Oct 18at NE19 − 26L
Oct 11vs CLE17 − 12W
Oct 4at CHI12 − 23L
Sep 27at DET24 − 31L
Sep 20vs GB17 − 20L
Sep 13at TEN23 − 10W
Jan 4at BUF8 − 35L
Dec 28, 2025vs NE10 − 42L
Dec 21, 2025at NO6 − 29L