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Chiefs at Falcons

NFL · Sunday, Nov 15 · 12:00 PM CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 15

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Nov 1

Expected margin
KC by 0.8
Expected score
KC 21.8 – 21.1 ATL
Expected total
42.9
ChiefsThe matchupFalcons
−104Our fair odds+104
21.8Expected points21.1
+0.30Power rating−0.09
23.8Points / game24.4
17.2Allowed / game24.7
380Total yards / game337
6.3Yards / play5.6
239Passing yards / game197
5−1Season record3−4
5−5Last 106−4
Mansoor Delane CB · Omarr Norman-Lott DT
Brashard Smith RB · Ethan Downs LB
Jeff Caldwell WROut (5 each)Anterio Thompson DT · Billy Bowman Jr. CB
Brian Robinson Jr. RB · DeAngelo Malone LB
Divine Deablo LB

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · ATL chance
Our model fair51.1%48.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Chiefs−10451%————
ATLAtlanta Falcons+10449%————
SpreadKC by 0.8
KCKansas City Chiefs−0.8our margin————
ATLAtlanta Falcons+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 42.9
Over42.9our total————
Under42.9our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Chiefs by 0.8 expected
Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 5%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 9%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 7%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 4%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 4%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%
← KC wins byATL wins by →
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 3 or more49%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 7 or more30%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 10 or more23%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

42.9 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 35.570%
Total over 42.549%
Total over 49.530%
Total from 36 to 4940%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 61% completions, 221 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTdepth chart
ATLMichael Penix Jr. · last 3 games: 64% completions, 226 yds/game, 7 TD, 0 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·ATL
Oct 25 at SEA
last game
Oct 25 vs SF
20 days
days of rest
20 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Kansas City Chiefs
KCMansoor Delane CB · shoulderOut
KCOmarr Norman-Lott DT · right knee - acl surgeryOut
KCBrashard Smith RB · hamstring, back about Nov 22IR
KCEthan Downs LB · knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
KCJeff Caldwell WR · left knee soreness, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
KCJimmy Holiday WR · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
KCJohn Michael Gyllenborg TE · knee sprain, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
KCJosh Simmons OT · back, back about Nov 22IR
KCL'Jarius Sneed CB · knee, back about Nov 26IR
KCMatt Waletzko OT · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 1 more
Atlanta Falcons
ATLAnterio Thompson DT · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027Out
ATLBilly Bowman Jr. CB · hamstringOut
ATLBrian Robinson Jr. RB · hamstringOut
ATLDeAngelo Malone LB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027Out
ATLDivine Deablo LB · forearmOut
ATLJames Pearce Jr. LB · suspensionSuspension
ATLStorm Norton OT · foot surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027Out
ATLAvieon Terrell CB · backQuestionable
ATLCharles Snowden LB · backQuestionable
ATLOlamide Zaccheaus WR · shoulderQuestionable
and 9 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
KC·ATL
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
23.8
points / game
24.4
17.2
points allowed / game
24.7
5−1
season record
3−4
3−0
home record
1−3
2−1
away record
2−1
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
380
total yards / game
337
6.3
yards / play
5.6
239
passing yards / game
197
142
rushing yards / game
140
19.5
first downs / game
19.0
0.8
turnovers / game
1.7

Rating Trend

KC · ATL · 32 days
Kansas City ChiefsAtlanta Falcons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · ATL 0−1
Sep 22, 2024at ATLKC 22 − 17

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 25at SEA3 − 20L
Oct 18vs LAC22 − 6W
Oct 4at LV30 − 27W
Sep 27at MIA24 − 10W
Sep 20vs IND33 − 30W
Sep 14vs DEN31 − 10W
Jan 4at LV12 − 14L
Dec 25, 2025vs DEN13 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at TEN9 − 26L
Dec 14, 2025vs LAC13 − 16L

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 25vs SF29 − 20W
Oct 18vs CHI23 − 31L
Oct 11vs BAL23 − 30L
Oct 5at NO45 − 24W
Sep 24at GB35 − 14W
Sep 20vs CAR3 − 34L
Sep 13at PIT13 − 20L
Jan 4vs NO19 − 17W
Dec 29, 2025vs LAR27 − 24W
Dec 21, 2025at ARI26 − 19W