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Rams at Cardinals

NFL · Sunday, Nov 15 · 3:05 PM CT · State Farm Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 15

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Nov 1

Expected margin
LAR by 14.4
Expected score
LAR 34.0 – 19.6 ARI
Expected total
53.5
RamsThe matchupCardinals
−253Our fair odds+253
34.0Expected points19.6
+0.34Power rating−0.67
24.3Points / game20.3
22.7Allowed / game29.7
399Total yards / game314
5.9Yards / play4.5
274Passing yards / game218
3−4Season record2−5
5−5Last 102−8
Blake Grupe PK · Daniel Rickert DE
Davante Adams WR · Eddie Walls III LB
Justin Dedich GOut (5 each)Jon Gaines II G · Tip Reiman TE
Walter Nolen III DT · Chase Bisontis G
Hunter Long TE

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAR chance · ARI chance
Our model fair71.7%28.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LARLos Angeles Rams−25372%————
ARIArizona Cardinals+25328%————
SpreadLAR by 14.4
LARLos Angeles Rams−14.4our margin————
ARIArizona Cardinals+14.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 53.5
Over53.5our total————
Under53.5our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 14.4 expected
Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 8%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 5%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 1%Tie: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 40 points: <1%
← LAR wins byARI wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more77%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more68%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more64%
Within 3 points either way11%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

53.5 expected
18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 46.565%
Total over 53.548%
Total over 60.532%
Total from 47 to 6034%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 76% completions, 267 yds/game, 8 TD, 1 INTdepth chart
ARIJacoby Brissett · last 3 games: 62% completions, 261 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAR·ARI
Oct 25 at LV
last game
Oct 25 vs DEN
20 days
days of rest
20 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Los Angeles Rams
LARJoe Cardona LS · ankleDoubtful
LARColby Parkinson TE · ribsQuestionable
LARColeman Shelton C · hipQuestionable
LARJordan Whittington WR · backQuestionable
LARKeir Thomas II LB · groinQuestionable
LARTrent McDuffie CB · groinQuestionable
LARZech McPhearson CBQuestionable
LARBlake Grupe PK · knee - acl, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
LARDaniel Rickert DE · knee, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
LARDavante Adams WR · left hamstring surgery, back about Nov 25IR
and 8 more
Arizona Cardinals
ARIJon Gaines II G · ankleOut
ARITip Reiman TE · right ankleOut
ARIWalter Nolen III DT · ankleOut
ARIAndrew Wingard S · knee bruiseQuestionable
ARIHjalte Froholdt C · kneeQuestionable
ARIJosh Minkins SQuestionable
ARIMax Melton CB · kneeQuestionable
ARIXavier Weaver WRQuestionable
ARIChase Bisontis G · left knee - mcl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
ARIHunter Long TE · kneeIR
and 9 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
LAR·ARI
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
−0.67
24.3
points / game
20.3
22.7
points allowed / game
29.7
3−4
season record
2−5
1−3
home record
0−3
2−1
away record
2−2
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
2−8
399
total yards / game
314
5.9
yards / play
4.5
274
passing yards / game
218
125
rushing yards / game
96
24.3
first downs / game
20.7
1.6
turnovers / game
0.9

Rating Trend

LAR · ARI · 32 days
Los Angeles RamsArizona Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 3−7
Oct 18at LARARI 18 − 16
Jan 4at LARLAR 37 − 20
Dec 7, 2025at ARILAR 45 − 17
Dec 28, 2024at LARLAR 13 − 9
Sep 15, 2024at ARIARI 41 − 10
Nov 26, 2023at ARILAR 37 − 14
Oct 15, 2023at LARLAR 26 − 9
Nov 13, 2022at LARARI 27 − 17
Sep 25, 2022at ARILAR 20 − 12
Jan 17, 2022at LARLAR 34 − 11post

LAR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 25at LV35 − 21W
Oct 18vs ARI16 − 18L
Oct 12vs BUF34 − 37L
Oct 4at PHI24 − 20W
Sep 27at DEN26 − 30L
Sep 21vs NYG28 − 6W
Sep 10vs SF7 − 27L
Jan 25at SEA27 − 31L
Jan 18at CHI20 − 17W
Jan 10at CAR34 − 31W

ARI · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Oct 25vs DEN16 − 30L
Oct 18at LAR18 − 16W
Oct 11vs DET21 − 45L
Oct 4at NYG24 − 36L
Sep 27at SF30 − 36L
Sep 20vs SEA7 − 31L
Sep 13at LAC26 − 14W
Jan 4at LAR20 − 37L
Dec 28, 2025at CIN14 − 37L
Dec 21, 2025vs ATL19 − 26L